There is a flood in Vermont. Not just yesterday, two weeks ago and a year before that, but experts say the state could see catastrophic events like this for the foreseeable future.
Climate change is fueling stronger and more persistent storms and the state’s infrastructure is lagging along the riverside villages of the Green Mountains with steep faces and rolling hills that carry huge amounts of water.
Now, these towns are the epicenter of flooding that state and federal officials are looking for.
Meanwhile, many homeowners are still trying to rebuild from flooding just over a year ago – which was considered historic at the time, is now becoming the norm.
A combination of factors makes Vermont susceptible to these devastating floods. Here’s a look at a few things, along with photos and videos from the latest storms.
Climate change warming the atmosphere
Such extreme flood conditions are often the result of random short-term natural weather patterns exacerbated by long-term human-caused climate change.
With climate change, storms are converging in a warmer atmosphere, making heavy rain a more frequent reality. Scientists predict further warming will only make it worse, with the US Northeast among the regions at risk of heavier rains in the future.
A warm atmosphere holds more moisture, causing storms to dump more precipitation that can have deadly or devastating results. For every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) that the atmosphere warms, it holds about 7% more moisture.
A study carried out last year in the journal Climate Change found that extreme precipitation in the North East will increase by 52% by the end of the century. One of the study’s authors, Jonathan Winter, an associate professor of geography at Dartmouth College, also participated in research that found a 50% increase in extreme precipitation events from 1996 to 2014.
Winter said the research found that the ability of the air to hold more water in a warmer climate is the main force behind the increases in extreme precipitation.
“This basically gives more fuel to storms, so when you have the right conditions for a large precipitation event like the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, it creates a bigger storm compared to what we would have without climate change,” he said.
Mountainous terrain and saturated soil
Vermont has more than 7,000 miles (11,300 kilometers) of rivers amid country roads that pass sweeping vistas and treasured ski resorts. Its residents are scattered down dirt roads that stretch miles into the desert, many with streams flowing through their properties to large rivers. Large mountains give way to deep valleys with rivers and streams throughout.
Many rural communities can quickly become overwhelmed when roads sink, and those who live near waterways where people settled in the mill era are at risk of flooding that moves boulders, trees and cars over their homes.
Vermont has had four floods in the past year, and the combination of climate change and the state’s mountainous geography are in large part, said Peter Banacos, science and operations officer with the National Weather Service in Burlington. More rainfall and increased moisture availability have made the state’s steep terrain more susceptible to flooding, he said.
The state’s soil is also saturated more often, creating a greater chance of flooding, Banacos said.
“As we see more frequent rain events, often in quick succession, we have soil conditions that are wetter or more saturated as the next rain storm arrives,” Banacos said.
Highly manipulated rivers
Vermont’s history of heavily manipulating its rivers and streams also plays a role in increased flooding, said Julie Moore, secretary of the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.
The flooding is an indication that we have reached our limits in terms of being able to truly manage rivers and keep them in place,” said Moore.
Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, culverts and wastewater facilities are particularly at risk, Moore said.
The state has been in the middle of a decades-long effort to harden the infrastructure, with the goal of replacing or repairing structures “keeping in mind our current and future climate,” Moore said.
Vermont is also working to establish statewide floodplain standards.
Collapsing dam system
Dams in Vermont are at increased risk as climate change brings heavier rains and more powerful storms. Extensive flooding in the state last year caused five dams to fail and nearly 60 to overflow. Although the deluge from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl was not as bad, dam officials were on alert.
The challenge facing dams in Vermont is playing out across the country as more dams breach or fail during heavy rains. Last month the Rapidan Dam, a 1910 hydroelectric dam in Minnesota, was badly damaged by the second worst flood in its history. And in Texas, flooding damaged the Lake Livingston Dam spillway about 65 miles (105 kilometers) northeast of Houston.
There are about 90,000 significant dams in the U.S. At least 4,000 are in poor or unsatisfactory condition and could kill people or harm the environment if they fail, according to data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. They require inspections, upgrades and even emergency repairs.
Like the rest of New England, Vermont has mostly small, older dams that were built to power textile mills, store water or provide irrigation for farms. The concern is that these dams that were built decades ago – when climate-driven storms weren’t dumping massive amounts of rain – have outlived their usefulness.