by This season’s exciting Premier League title race has been much talked about, but the chase for the automatic promotion spots in the Championship is shaping up to be just as dramatic.
With Leicester City, Ipswich Town, Leeds United and Southampton all chasing the top two points with just three games remaining, it is set to be one of the most impressive finishes England has ever seen.
Fourth-placed Southampton looked well out of the race just two weeks ago, having taken eight points to the top three.
However, none of the top three sides seem capable of pulling away, with the three points dropping time and time again when it matters most, making Southampton unlikely to get into the mix.
Here Telegraph Sport assesses each club ahead of their final games of the season.
Ipswich Town
Another promoted side with a modest wage bill, Ipswich are the surprise package in this season’s promotion race. The side coached by former Manchester United assistant manager Kieran McKenna are hoping to secure a Premier League place for the first time since 2002.
After an impressive run of nine wins in ten games, Ipswich looked in sublime form going into the run-in. But they fell down at the wrong time, picking up just two points in their last three games, despite conceding just two goals.
Chance creation and efficiency in front of goal, which have been strengths all season, have become weaknesses.
In April, they averaged 4.7 expected goals (xG) in four games, their second-lowest for a month this season. April is also only the second month in which McKenna’s side have exceeded their xG, having scored 15 more goals than expected in the entire campaign.
Ipswich still have away trips to two teams as they enter the play-off picture. Heading into the final day, 22nd-placed Huddersfield’s home game looks favourable, but they currently sit just one point shy of safety and won’t go down without a fight.
Upcoming fixtures
Hull (a) – 27 April
Coventry (h) – 30 April
Huddersfield (h) – 4 May
City of Leicester
It has been a strange campaign for Leicester City. Through the first 23 games, Enzo Maresca’s side were on course for a record points total in the Championship. Recently, they have been in relegation form, losing six of their last ten. Automatic promotion, which seemed like a foregone conclusion not long ago, is now up in the air.
A deeper look at the numbers shows that Leicester’s impressive pace in the first half of the campaign was unsustainable. At Christmas, they had racked up 58 points in 23 games, 12.1 more than the expected total (xP). Since, they have collected only 30 points in 19 games, seven points less than the xP. Simply put, they are going back to their true level.
However, Leicester’s fall from grace is remarkable. Two months ago, they were enjoying a 12-point lead at the top of the table. Now, they find themselves in second place (albeit with a game in hand) with two other teams close behind.
The promotion is extremely important for Leicester, given their financial problems. They recorded a loss of £89.7 million for the 2022-23 season and could be fined for allegedly breaching Premier League and Football League rules.
With three home games remaining, and a good chance Preston and Blackburn won’t have much to play for, Leicester could turn the tide and finish strong. They will be hoping that Jamie Vardy, who has eight from his last 13 games, will come up with the goods for them, as he has done so often.
Upcoming fixtures
West Brom (h) – 20 April
Southampton (h) – 23 April
Preston (a) – 29 April
Blackburn (h) – 4 May
Leeds United
Leeds were 13 and seven points behind Leicester and Ipswich, respectively, at the halfway mark of the season, but a 15-game unbeaten run until the start of 2024 has lifted them back into automatic promotion contention.
However, just as their rivals have slipped up, allowing Daniel Farke’s side to pull ahead, Leeds themselves have slumped, recording just one point from nine available.
The main issue has been a relentless attack: In April, Leeds missed their xG by three goals (four goals from 7.0 xG), their worst underperformance in a single month of this campaign.
Star player Crysencio Summerville (17G, 8A), who was recently crowned the best player of the season in the division, was kept quiet. And Patrick Bamford, who scored 17 PL goals in 2020-21, has missed some big chances.
Leeds still have to play Middlesbrough in mid-table and relegation-threatened QPR, before a potentially crucial home game against Southampton on the final day.
They will be looking to avoid a repeat of 2018-19, where Marcelo Bielsa’s side took one point from their last three games, slipping from second to third, before losing to Derby County in the play-offs.
Upcoming fixtures
Middlesbrough (a) – 22 April
QPR (a) – 26 April
Southampton (h) – 4 May
Southampton
Russell Martin’s side was not supposed to be in this race. After losing to Ipswich in the 97th minute on April 1, their dreams of reaching the top two looked crushed. At that stage, Opta only gave them a 0.9 per cent chance of automatic promotion.
That figure has since increased to 7.7 per cent, before last night’s convincing 3-0 win over Preston.
At a time when the teams around them are down, Southampton have risen. They have now won three straight games, scoring eight goals.
In that time period, Che Adams has scored as many goals as Ipswich, Leicester and Leeds combined in nine games: four.
With three away games remaining, including a midweek trip to Leicester and a trip to Elland Road on the final day, Southampton undoubtedly have their toughest games left. However, the games against their direct rivals give them a chance to gain ground in the race for the top two.
Upcoming fixtures
Cardiff (a) – 20 April
Leicester (a) – 23 April
Stoke (h) – 27 April
Leeds (a) – 4 May
Conclusion
No team in the Championship has ever racked up 90 points and not been promoted. This season, there could be two, which shows how special this campaign is, and how tight the edges are.
Opta’s model gives Leicester and Ipswich the upper hand in the fight for automatic promotion, but don’t rule out Leeds and even Southampton.
In the last three games, Russell Martin’s side have collected three more points (nine) than the leading three combined. The onus is on the table leaders to prove their recent poor form is nothing more than a blip, or Southampton can and will take advantage.
