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Punxatawney Phil, the central character of the annual winter ritual known as Groundhog’s Day, isn’t exactly great at his job. His predictions are wrong more often than they are right.
On Friday, the divining marmot did not see his shadow, which indicates early spring. But, technically, winter will end on the vernal equinox, which falls on the evening of March 19.
But the moose is just one of many animals that folklore has an uncanny ability to predict the weather, including cows that are said to lie down before an early rain and woolly caterpillars that are adorned with less color before a frigid winter. .
Most of these associations are not connected by modern science – but there is an occasional hint that is documented among the myths.
Phenology is the study of how seasonal events in plant and animal life change with weather and climate, such as how fish or migratory birds respond to water and air temperature. (The field of study can be practiced as a hard science, for the record, and is entirely different from “pseudoscientific phrenology.”)
The US National Phenology Network follows when ecological markers of spring arrive across the United States — and the season is already in full bloom in some parts of the east and west coasts.
Theresa Crimmins, director of the US National Phenology Network, said that while Punxatawney Phil is not a reliable predictor of the arrival of spring, phenology provides scientific support for other seemingly supersensive theories about the natural world.
“People have been observing (environmental conditions) for many thousands of years, basically as long as humans have been around,” Crimmins said. “(Many of these atoms) really work that way because they are, in a way, capturing those relationships between the environmental conditions and the plant response.”
But although folklore often thinks that animal behavior indicates future weather events, in reality, flora and fauna react to weather and climate.
Plants and their predictions
The roots of Groundhog Day lie in traditions that were probably imported to the United States from Germany, where the animal that predicted winter was a badger rather than a groundhog.
However, many well-known proverbs about the natural world come from Native American populations.
“One example is planting corn when oak leaves are the equivalent of a squirrel’s ear,” notes an article on phenology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “You know planting corn has nothing to do with oak leaves or squirrels. However, Native Americans noticed centuries ago that the soil was warm enough to prevent seeds from rotting, but it was still early enough to achieve a suitable harvest if corn was planted at the time this.”
Crimmins points out that there are plenty of other predictors of upcoming ecological events spelled out in the leaves, berries and flowers of plants.
For example, the service hawkmoth is a small tree native to parts of eastern North America, and it is believed that its name derives from the fact that it bears flowers at the same time of year that sedum begins to bloom. river migration. The Lenape and other Native American populations noticed the phenomenon long ago and prepared to fish when the plant began to bloom.
Animals and harsh weather
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has aggregated a few dozen statements about insects, animals and their ability to predict weather patterns.
Some of the claims are questionable. Dogs eating grass, for example, are likely to be a far less accurate predictor of rainfall than a meteorologist’s weather report.
But there is research out there that suggests some animals may have an innate sense that helps them sense when disaster is on the way.
For example, yellowwings evacuated an area in Tennessee more than 24 hours before a devastating string of tornadoes hit the area, according to a December 2014 study published in the journal Current Biology.
The authors of the study predicted that the migrating birds listened to infrasound – sound at frequencies too low for humans to hear – associated with the storms and took it into account as a warning signal.
Researchers in Germany also looked at whether different species of animals could detect an earthquake. The scientists found that, collectively, animals including cows, sheep and dogs showed more activity before an earthquake up to 20 hours in advance, according to a report from Germany’s Max Planck Society, an association non-profit research institutions.
Insects and frogs
There is also truth to the notion that crickets can act as nature’s thermometer. The insects are ectotherms, which means their body temperature varies with their surroundings – and they regularly molt faster when the weather is warmer.
According to Dolbear’s Law, a formula that describes this relationship between cricket and weather, “you can count the number of chips per 15 seconds, add 40, and that gives you the temperature in Fahrenheit,” which notes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Frogs also deliver unique calls when it is about to rain.
“Many herpetologists in the twentieth century confirmed and clarified the traditional observation that various species of frogs sometimes give a distinctive voice, a ‘rain call’, shortly before wet weather,” said Dr. Gordon Miller, professor emeritus of environmental studies. at Seattle University, via email.
The calls “might be triggered by an increase in moisture prior to the precipitation,” Miller said.
Facts vs folklore
Other tropes about the ability of animals to predict seasonal conditions are, however, incorrect.
The woolly bear — a species of caterpillar, also known as the woolly worm — is thought to foretell the severity of the coming winter with its colored bands. More black coloring on the insect indicates that harsher conditions are on the way.
But in reality, “the coloration of the caterpillar is based on how long (the) caterpillar has fed, its age, and its species,” according to the National Weather Service. “The better the growing season, the more it will grow. This results in narrower red-orange bands in the middle. Therefore, the width of the band is an indicator of the current or past season’s growth rather than an indicator of the severity of the coming winter.”
Climate change and phenology
Unusual animal behavior can also be a reaction to climate change, Crimmins emphasized. And often not in good ways.
The climate crisis and human development are creating all kinds of ecological problems, Crimmins noted. Bears, for example, are going into winter later and waking up earlier because of the warmer weather. This could lead to more interactions between humans and bears foraging for food, and there is concern about how shorter winter periods are affecting bear pregnancies.
Miller said that while frogs may be able to predict the coming rains, “with so many amphibian species continuing to decline due to various environmental and climatic factors, it may be that today, as Rachel Carson observed about birds in 1962, the diminishing chorus and the increasing silence are clearer to us.”
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