by Some regions of Europe could see “horrendous” economic losses in the coming years due to rising oceans, researchers say. A new study found that in the worst case scenario emissions and sea level riseThe European Union and the United Kingdom could lose 872 billion Euros (about $950 billion) by the end of this century, with many regions within them experiencing GDP losses of between 10% and 21%.
The study, published Thursday in the journal Scientific Reports, analyzed the economic impacts of sea level rise for 271 European regions. Researchers conducted their analysis based on high estimates greenhouse gas emissions, which triggers global temperature rises, a process that causes sea levels to rise. For the study, they also based their findings on the fact that there were no new coastal protection measures after 2015, although countries could take action to reduce the impact.
What they found was that the EU and the UK — both of which are the 12 biggest contributors to global trade in goods, according to the EU — would lose a combined 1.26% of their GDP, about $950 billion. But researchers said the potential loss to smaller places, particularly inland coastal areas, is even more important.
The author of the study Tatiana Filatova called the potential impact “terrible.” But she said, “The purpose of this study is not to scare you.”
“What is important … is the fact that the aggregate number for the entire continent misrepresents the actual damage that will be done to economies at the regional level,” Filatova said.
Some inland regions, including Germany, Austria and Hungary, would see their GDP fall slightly by 2100 – likely due to industry and services relocating from flooded coastal regions, the study’s authors said. But there could be large GDP losses in many areas – what the study authors called “hot spots,” mostly along coasts.
The northeastern Italian region of Veneto, town Venice, could see a GDP loss of 20.84%, researchers found, while Poland’s Zachodniopomorskie could see a loss of just over 12% and the Emilia-Romagna region could see a loss of 10.16% Italy. In the United Kingdom, England’s Lincolnshire was found to be the most economically at risk, with an estimated GDP loss of 20.1% by 2100.
Such amounts, the study says, are “substantial, if not catastrophic.”
And that doesn’t take into account the potential impact of any of it The tipping points of the Worldwhich according to the European Space Agency are “critical thresholds in that breaching them could lead to irreversible consequences.”
“[What will happen] is still to some extent in the cards, but we have deliberately taken the worst available scenario … to see what will happen if we do nothing,” the study’s lead author, Ignasi Cortés Arbués, said at a meeting information. about the hot spots. … The places with no adaptations basically disappear.”
Climate hazards such as sea level rise can take a heavy toll on the economy, he said, and even “trigger restructuring.”
“This means that certain sectors will become more important to the region’s GDP due to the impact of the hazard,” he said. “…If you have a natural disaster, it’s quite normal, immediately afterwards, that the construction sector benefits a lot … but what does that mean for other sectors?”
Cortés Arbués and his team analyzed the impact on several economic sectors – agriculture, industry, construction, utility logistics, transport, private services and public services – of rising sea levels for different regions. Unlike construction, which is expected to rise only as sea levels rise because of the need to help with recovery, agriculture and public services are likely to be lost, the study found.
“Our findings confirm that national-level analysis captures regional disparities, and underestimates potential systemic damages to vulnerable coastal regions, which can be an order of magnitude greater than national GDP losses,” says the study. “…A heightened awareness of these impacts is critical to developing effective climate change adaptation strategies.”
Filatova said their findings help to better understand the economic shock that events related to climate change could cause. And although their research focused on European nations, she said that their analyzes can – and should – be considered worldwide.
“Europe is relatively protected even compared to North America,” she said. “It would be extremely important to reproduce similar analyses.”
Police body cameras roll as man describes what happened before his girlfriend stopped breathing
Health information on King Charles and Princess Kate has been revealed
The police response to the Uvalde shooting was “a failure that should not have happened,” Garland says
