by It was a very good Goal of the Month in December 2006. The BBC and Lightning Seeds were brought in by Adrian Chiles from the FA Cup third round match between Tamworth and Norwich City. “It was quite a tough December goal competition in December,” he says, before we cut to Bramall Lane.
A long throw is sent into the box and goes clear to the D where Keith Gillespie misses a header into the corner. Morten Gamst Pedersen makes it the sort of thing you remember. Matty Taylor scored Matty Taylor’s goal. Paul Scholes’ Villa Park volley, then Michael Essien with a towering header at Stamford Bridge hit from around Earl’s Court.
What is striking is the intelligence and the range, not just the shots but the different types of goals. Such diversity is disappearing from the current Premier League. In video game circles it was considered a faux pas to find space near the byline and cut the ball back across the goal for an easy finish. Now goals like those seem to be the only way forward.
It goes beyond the goals, there is a clear flattening of styles in the top flight. Control is everything and teams are more regimented in the way they move, with and without the ball. You are more likely to find a representative by spontaneity than by recommendation. Whenever a new coach is appointed they will usually say the same thing. They like to keep possession, play at a high pace, press and win it back quickly.
We have seen two straight Chelsea horror games in the space of six days, their 4-1 defeat at Tottenham and a 4-4 draw at Manchester City. In light of that, this is a counterintuitive question to ask. But has Premier League football become more boring?
Perhaps we are all more aware of the inner workings of football. Wolves manager Gary O’Neil appeared on Monday Night Football last month to demonstrate the clever way his double pivot in midfield was trumped by Bournemouth’s pressing press. Depending on your point of view this was either an exciting glimpse behind the curtain or a slightly depressing display of at least the freedom afforded to talented footballers.
The risk is disappearing. Over the past 20 years there has been a steady decline from about 13 shots per game from outside the area to closer to nine now. The leading goal is also in decline, almost one in five Premier League goals in 2004/05, now more like one in 10. Direct free kicks are going the same way as shots from outside the box. , although targets are from outside the area. They have consistently suggested that players are smarter about choosing which shots to take. Or they are under strict instructions. You would imagine that the xG average of Tony Yeboah or Matt Le Tissier’s shots would cause disciplinary proceedings now.
A rare critical voice was raised from within the coaching fraternity last year. “It’s a robotic game,” said Cesc Fabregas, then with Monaco now at Como, speaking to Marca. “You watch games and you know what’s going to happen. With a little pressure, a long ball behind the goal, the striker pushes it to the end or the midfielder reaches it and it becomes very monotonous in many teams.”
If you must have a villain, make him Pep Guardiola. Success is the most powerful propaganda for orthodoxy and the brilliance of its highly regimented methods is being copied all over the world. Few people want to try anything different. Thomas Frank’s Brentford have been a minority in possession in the Premier League this season and there are other outliers in specific situations, such as Ange Postecoglou’s recent decision to set an offside trap on the halfway line when there were nine men against Chelsea. Diego Simeone is a consistent dissenter at the highest level, and you get the feeling that few coaches are giving him a name in job interviews.
So how do perfectionists and detail-oriented football obsessives convey their ideas? “I went to clubs overseas and saw an hour spent on a throw-in,” says Mark Warburton, former manager of Brentford, Rangers, Nottingham Forest and QPR. “I think it’s not completely rigid like the NFL, with specific plays. But I think we’re focusing a lot on aspects of the game that are much more structured and pre-prepared.”
Playing patterns have been worked on over the years to the non-league level, but are now more detailed and designed to create specific situations on the pitch, especially the fake overloads that are vital to the success of Guardiola’s Manchester. Most coaches now run shorter training sessions, but at a higher intensity. Time in the video analysis room makes up for the deficit.
It doesn’t sound like much fun. “Players are not stupid,” says Warburton. “If they see something that benefits them, even if they hate doing it, they will do it because they get the reward. But sometimes the level of detail is overwhelming. If there’s a single moment of genius, a player drops a shoulder and beats two guys, then your best laid plans are out the window.”
It’s not all Guardiola’s fault. The standardization of coaching courses produces like-minded graduates and the proliferation of data means many English clubs employ multiple analysts. “Data is huge and a lot of people don’t realize how important it is, but it can’t be everything,” says Warburton.
“Recruitment cannot be 100 percent data-driven. But he certainly has a huge impact on the game and that will certainly increase in the next three to five years. It cannot harm any aspect of the game that we all love.”
The extent of these changes will depend on your general attitude. A football fan can still enjoy the sport in its most basic form, without the trouble of a secret pressure trigger, should he choose. But there is a sense that something is being lost.
‘Very bad risk’
Nick Hancock once relied on the volatility of football to make a living. The host of They Think It’s All Over now takes over The Famous Sloping Pitch podcast and laments the unpredictable waste of time. “Players are much better and much fitter and have a wider range of skills, but that doesn’t add much to the game,” he says. “I hear people at games berating players for doing things and I’m thinking ‘they’re just doing exactly what they’re told.’ Gone are the days when a player grabs the game by the scruff of the neck and spins it around.”
His view is that today’s more prescriptive style is a product of saturated football coverage and fear of failure. “I feel that the players and the officials are never as happy as when a game is suspended, because they cannot be guilty of anything.
“Pressure and judgment make the game very risky. That is compounded by the fact that they are always trying to inoculate the game from human error. That’s exactly what this game is not. It’s sublime skill and athleticism but it’s also about the fallibility of the human race. Having perfect pitches and seven replacements, all those things are there to make sure the right team wins.”
It may be a while before we see a proper clash of styles again. The crazy gang can’t beat the culture club when everyone is a culture club. “Teams will evolve to join the possession trend which is clearly the current blueprint for success,” says Jack Manship, analyst and scout for Doncaster Rovers. “Teams like Brighton, Aston Villa, Newcastle, who certainly didn’t used to park the bus for long periods of time, are directing the play in a lot of their games now, and that’s why they’re in positions much stronger than they have. recently.
“It’s also no coincidence that most of the teams with the least average possession are near the bottom of the Premier League this season.”
He sees ultra-defensive tactics going out of fashion before Pep-lite football, and Warburton expects a future where Guardiola will be even more influential. “I think we will see a complete breakdown of formations as we know them. Different coaches have always made different tweaks but I think now, with a huge influence from Pep in particular, we will see formations go.
“Your center will be wide on the left and we will have players who will be more comfortable in all areas. Gone are the days of the great Jack Charlton-type centre-half.” That is at least a different kind of unpredictability and excitement. Where do you get your kicks, jinking wings or in-game changes from 3-4-3 to 2-4-3-1?
For now, at least the noise and fury of the Premier League still seems to be as vital as its announcements. Slowly, however, expect another slide towards the regiment. If current trends continue football will become more refined, optimised, and ultimately.
Consider your all-time favorite gun-to-the-head game. Was it impeccable or was it loose, wild and unhinged? The second category may no longer exist in the future.
