by “Extreme weather is already taking a toll on travel,” says Alex Hawkins, strategic foresight editor at The Future Laboratory. “By 2033, the map could be completely redrawn. and how we explore.” Heat waves in Europe hit 40 degrees hot and humid last summer, barely falling out in the evening. Currently, the north of Ethiopia is facing a severe drought, and in the south, just over above the Equator, and in Kenya and Somalia, there are terrible floods.In the Alps, this winter’s ski season was largely over.
Warmer temperatures are already influencing the decision-making of nearly 70 percent of travelers who say they are now rethinking where they would traditionally go, according to a recent Marriott Bonvoy report by The Future Laboratory. After analyzing the travel plans of 14,000 travelers across the continent and the Middle East, for the next three years, a quarter of us are already planning to travel at different times of the year and almost a third are considering cooler destinations to moderate the extremes. Hawkins suggests that destinations such as Scandinavia, Scotland and even upper parts of Canada are on the cards. “Agriculture, and winemaking in particular, is already following that path – so travel is not far behind.”
Heat waves are already affecting our holiday choices, says Zoritsa Urosevic, executive director of the United Nations World Tourism Organization. “Climate change will lead to the emergence of new destinations and will change the perception of tourism,” she says. Back in the Roaring Twenties, when F Scott Fitzgerald and his friend Zelda were sipping roses in Antibes, the French Riviera was a winter destination. I wonder what the author of The Great Gatsby and his socialite wife could do with the time in their former home, now the Belles Rives hotel, at the height of summer in the roasting 2020s.
“I have already seen the dramatic impact of 3C higher temperatures in Greenland with dire consequences,” says Hjörtur Smárason, tourism development strategist and former CEO of Visit Greenland, the world’s largest island, in the North Atlantic. “After two summers of forest fires and floods across Europe, numbers of people are moving north. The Mediterranean is the place to escape it in the summer,” he says. Since Arctic Lapland already had summer days above 30C, he imagines that the Baltic Sea and Ukraine will be beach holiday destinations in the future, and that the Estonian islands will be high on the Adriatic island stage. “There are already investors on the popular Lolland beaches in Denmark to build sustainable beach hotels in the future – this could extend to the Ukrainian coastlines south from Odesa to Mariupol,” predicted Smárason.
Meteorologists used to predict the seasons for monsoons, blizzards and hurricanes. But as events such as the wildfire in Evros, Greece, this summer, the largest ever recorded in the EU, show, it is impossible to predict. Dennis Schaal of Skift industry experts expects the classic “inside or outside” vacation to turn, with vacationers looking for indoor activities to replace outdoor ones in the heat. Off-season breaks will be the norm, and many trips become more expensive. Schaal points out that Greece is increasing its hospitality tax, especially for luxury stays, “to seed a climate-driven disaster fund”.
Our cold weather escapes also need a rethink. Last January, ski resorts across Europe experienced some of the highest temperatures on record for that time of year, from Germany to the Czech Republic. Small centers in France only opened for a month, and, in the case of La Sambuy, near Trois Vallées, for the last time. In Canada, it didn’t get cold enough for Ottawa’s Rideau Canal – the world’s longest natural ice skating rink was out of action for the first time in 52 winters. The owners of the canalside booths are anxiously waiting to see if it will get cold enough for skating in 2024.
Too hot. Too cold. Too much water. Not enough water. Another disaster movie is a water shortage coming soon to a travel destination near us. When river levels in Europe were falling, trips along the Danube and the Rhine resumed during 2023. The recent drought in the French territory of Mayotte, off the east coast of Africa, shows us how An island community can run out of drinking water. Hosting a holiday in high heat with all those spaces, golf courses and swimming pools to turn off is a thirsty job. The Center for Responsible Travel reports that average tourists can use up to 10 times more H2O when away than local residents. Throw agriculture into the mix, competing with tourism for this dwindling resource, and trouble is ahead.
Jonny Bealby, of small group specialists Wild Frontiers, asks: “With more droughts, will there be an end to water wars between countries bordering the world’s great rivers? Will melting ice caps and rising sea levels submerge iconic travel destinations forever? Will an increase in extreme heat and associated bushfires make travel to Australia, Greece and California impossible? As Cornwall competes with Provence, will Provence be like the Sahara?”
Before you start stocking up on tap water, adventure travel expert Bealby doubts it will play out this decade. “If we look back at 2013, apart from the cost of travel, the only thing that has changed is the huge increase in the number of global travellers.” What is certain is that prices will rise. “As insurance companies see higher risk, as governments levy more green taxes on flights and operators look to rebuild balance sheets that have been decimated during the pandemic, the cost of travel will rise.”
Could international travel becoming more expensive lead to a desire to travel the world digitally? “I’m not sure real travel will ever replace real travel – videotape didn’t kill the radio star,” says James Wallman, founder of the World Experience Organization. “But immersion with nature is on the rise. This connected shared reality – as opposed to the virtual reality that separates us – is showing growth speed, and why Apple’s Vision Pro and 5G mixed reality headset will be a gamechanger.” It’s hard to imagine that spending time in entertainment venues such as Outernet London or the Illuminarium in the States instead of balmy piazzas and jungle peaks but it could be a long shot. “We were able to visit the Amazon via Tottenham Court Road where Pixel Artworks was interactive, fun, free, and let us catch a butterfly on our phones,” says Wallman. “By 2033, we could take a trip to a virtual Machu Picchu mixed with Manhattan and a rollercoaster—or Manhattan under water, which we hope will remain a fantasy and not yet the reality of a climate crisis.”
There is good news. The cost of wind energy has fallen by 70 per cent, the price of solar has fallen by 90 per cent, and a Government report earlier this year stated that only 1 per cent of the UK public is against renewable energy. Aviation, however, is slower to transition to green energy than we would like. For all the talk about sustainable aviation fuel, hydrogen power, vertical take-off and landing, there are no major changes coming to scale anytime soon. And the super-rich hopping on private jets is especially uncomfortable in light of Oxfam’s latest report. Climate Equity: A planet for the 99% shows that the world’s richest 1 percent are responsible for more emissions than the poorest 66 percent. Of these, women and girls, indigenous communities, and the marginalized and poorest are most disadvantaged. By 2033, will flying, let alone private jets, be considered socially unacceptable? Those who care about the way the other person lives more than half, may want it banned – or at least restricted. Will we see frequent billboards continue with air travel rewards? Or are loyalty points only for train travel? On the bright side, we’ll put a few “rail miles” on those summer sleeper trains to the Baltic Riviera.
Listen to the Saturday Standard: Sustainable Travel podcast for more information on the green future of tourism. Get expert advice and sustainable travel tips at standard.co.uk/sustainable-travel
