by The holiday is over – at least, it will be by 2050. Amidst environmental disasters, ethical quandaries and economic turmoil, travel as we know it is “on the brink of extinction” – and if its trajectory continues, it will on forced leave. “virtual holiday” instead.
So begins an exciting new report on the future of travel, published by leading adventure travel company Intrepid and visionary consultancy The Future Laboratory. No attention is drawn to it, citing climate data from NASA and the World Meteorological Organization, harsh examples of overtourism – Venice, Barcelona, Bali et al – and many grim stories from the tourism frontline.
By 2050, he says, low-lying islands such as the Maldives and the Bahamas could become uninhabitable; by that same year, Dead Sea spa resorts will overlook a dried-up crater. The likes of Miami, New Orleans and Bangkok are already threatened by rising oceans and, according to the US Global Change Research Programme, are set to rise by “20-30cm more” by 2050.
The dystopian thesis continues: last year, the island nation of Tuvalu announced it would become the first “digitized nation in the metaverse”, creating VR versions of its landscapes and cultural rituals that would allow people to “visit” if it is swallowed up by rising tides. . “The metaverse is the only way to deal with unwelcome places [by] climate change, where people will be able to interact with these destinations before,” Intrepid coldly predicts.
“The IS [travel] The industry faces two possible roads,” says Dr Susanne Etti, Intrepid’s global environmental impact manager, who was named a “climate pioneer” in this year’s BBC 100 Women – its annual list of inspiring and influential women.
“One where climate disruption and tourism restrictions limit the pursuit of dreams, and one where resurgents change the future of travel – and the world – for the better.”
Because yes, travel is an undeniable force for good, a $7.71 trillion (£6.07 trillion) global industry that strengthens entire economies, unleashes innovation and oils the wheels of diplomacy. But not all holidays are created equal – and when the talk turns to climate change, the winter sun’s ways are standing cheerfully in the corner, staring up at the door. Certainly, the spring can send in flying halfway around the world to flop on the beach for degree, but is it “regenerative” in the sense of Intrepid?
By its very nature, this type of trip is frivolous and indulgent – not a do-gooder. So, while it’s been a long time coming, will the winter sun lose its luster in the coming years?
Absolutely, says Douglas Quinby, CEO and co-founder of travel company Arival. “Two out of three [young] Gen-Z and Millennial travelers already do [holiday] choices based on the impact of the activity on the environment and the local community,” he says. This message is echoed across the industry, with the likes of Amex, Hilton and Marriott Bonvoy reaching similar conclusions from their own recent research.
Gen Z, those between the ages of 11 and 26 at the moment, are already scaring the holiday choices of their elders. I Travel Telegraph panel earlier this month branded all-inclusive holidays for under-30s as “depressed, lazy and narrow-minded” – but the next generation, known as Alpha, may have even stronger views (born between 2010 and 2025).
“By 2040, it will be unusual to see members of Generation Alpha without a carbon footprint tracker on their smartphones,” Intrepid said. “Every Uber trip, plane ride and trip to the supermarket will be logged into their devices, noting their carbon footprint in real time.”
Before Covid-19 temporarily clipped our wings, one in five travelers was flying less because of “flight embarrassment”, according to a 2019 study by the Swiss bank UBS. Of the 6,000 western travelers, about 20 percent said a “call out” for air travel was keeping it on the ground – a trend that, according to UBS, could halve air passenger growth.
The pandemic has of course knocked that out, but the travel industry is bouncing back strongly (in October, over seven million people traveled through Heathrow, more than in October 2019) – and shame on back in the discourse. “Flight Shaming Will Return In 2023”, predicted Forbes this year, and he was not wrong: in May, France banned domestic flights where the journey could be made by rail, and earlier this month Spain plans out to do the same.
Our lust for the sun may be waning, too. After a summer of extreme temperatures across Europe, in which large areas of Greece, Spain, Italy and southern France were devastated by forest fires and drought, climate change is already having an impact on how we choose our holidays. Two in five Britons (43 per cent) say that as temperatures rise in the UK in the future, they will use holidays to “chill” in a cooler destination, according to a new report from Booking.com.
In addition, almost half of us (42 percent) say that climate change has already affected our travel plans for 2024; “his holiday was officially in full swing”, quips Booking.com. Whether by trend or necessity, our pursuit of winter sun may end much earlier than 2050.
