by When you read the long final agreement of the United Nations COP28 climate conference held in December 2023, you will go a long way before you find a strong active word. The long narrative of climate impact is a cause for concern and sometimes a “significant concern” is gaps in countries’ current policies. But while countries have voluntarily committed to act, they have been less keen to frame those commitments as binding agreements in the final text.
The responses to the COP28 conclusion were understandably mixed. Going into the talks, the world was more on track to avoid catastrophic warming than it would have been without the 2015 Paris Agreement, but it is far from where it needs to be.
Even if all the commitments made at COP28 are implemented, the world will still exceed the Paris goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
Politically, it was perhaps the best agreement nations could reach at this time of rising geopolitical tensions led by the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is a country of contradictions – a petrostate with renewable energy ambitions, eager to emerge on the world stage as a green champion, but also accused of colonialist tactics in Africa.
Most of the headlines focused on the mention of fossil fuels in the COP28 agreement for the first time. The controversial language asked countries to “help” to “transition from fossil fuels,” rather than the phase-out that was supported by the majority of countries. With an unprecedented number of energy industry lobbyists on hand, the most vulnerable countries described the agreement as a litany of loopholes.
The final agreement was written, in large part, in a way to ensure the future of the natural gas industry. He pointed to natural gas as an essential bridge fuel and an increase in renewable energy, an argument that the International Energy Agency rejected before COP28. The deal also raised the prospect of continued heavy subsidies for carbon capture and storage, which many energy analysts and economists dismissed as unscalable at a reasonable cost.
However, the UAE has grappled with some of the old climate negotiation gimmicks. He broke the polarity of climate finance – the Global South waiting for the Global North to fulfill its public finance commitments – by targeting private investment and deploying tens of thousands of dollars of its sovereign wealth. He hasn’t been able to convince others to match his generosity, but there will be more pressure in 2024.
So what should we look for in the coming months?
1. Putting new energy commitments into action
COP28 included significant commitments towards an energy transition away from fossil fuels, including commitments to triple renewable energy capacity, increase energy efficiency and reduce methane emissions.
Now it is up to countries and companies to show progress. That will depend on investments and overcoming supply bottlenecks, as well as new policies and, in the case of methane, standards for imports and exports.
The new Global Cooling Pledge to reduce emissions from cooling by 68% and increase access to cooling technology is becoming increasingly important. The demand for cooling is putting pressure on the demand for energy around the globe, especially in countries with large populations affected by extreme heat, such as India. Developing technologies that will help the billions most at risk and improve cold supply chains for food and medicine will require increased investment and priority from governments.
Watch for more cities to appoint heat czars to spearhead efforts to protect populations from extreme heat, adopt tree equity plans to increase shade and cooling, and invest more in cooling technologies.
2. Use innovations in finance
COP28 saw significant innovation in finance, including the UAE’s announcement of the Alterra Fund – a billion pledge to mobilize private investment in developing countries.
The International Organization of Securities Commissions launched a strong statement supporting corporate sustainability disclosure standards and welcomed corporate integrity standards in voluntary carbon markets. Look for more countries to submit rules on “net-zero emissions” commitments.
3. Making trade work for the climate
Trade is linked to finance and investment, which COP28 welcomed to the main stage for the first time.
There are two things to look for in 2024. Firstly, look for the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to align their advice to governments on effective carbon pricing.
Second, while trade and climate negotiators traditionally move in different circles, they will need to work together to ensure that the trading system supports climate action. For example, ensuring that green products and services are not made more expensive than their polluting alternatives.
4. Setting up the carbon markets
2023 was a year in which the voluntary carbon markets were pushed back, with investigations questioning their effectiveness. The failure of COP28 to bring forward agreements on carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement means that they will be targeted in 2024.
In this case, no deal was better than a bad deal, but the delay leaves uncertainty for countries planning to use carbon markets to reach their net-zero goals.
5. Obtain more adaptation funding where necessary
A global goal for adaptation, a joint commitment to building resilience and adaptive capacity around the world was finally agreed, but negotiators left the details to be filled in over the next two years.
For adaptation funding to flow to where it is most needed, a top-down discussion will need to begin, including locally-led efforts. Seek adaptation to be a much larger part of countries’ second generation climate plans that will be submitted to the UN before COP30.
6. Put new food and commitments into action
A majority of the world’s countries, 159, have signed the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action. They agreed to include food systems, which contribute a significant percentage of global emissions and are fundamental to adaptation and resilience, in the next generation of climate plans to be submitted to the UN.
However, the promise was thin on details, so how each country turns words into action will be crucial in 2024.
The other major climate milestones
In late 2024, COP29 will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan – another oil-producing nation. Focus will be on finance. But the next big milestone is in 2025, when governments must submit their future commitments and plans to reduce emissions.
COP30 is to take place in Belen in the Brazilian state of Para – the frontline of the Amazon’s defense. This will focus on nature-based solutions, but from a Global South perspective. President Lula da Silva, who is also hosting the G20 in 2024, wants to see a change in the international trade and financial system to reflect changes in the global economy.
COP28 set out important initiatives but focused on binding commitments. As countries work on their next generation of plans to try to put the world on track to limit global warming, they will need to consider all their economies and cover all greenhouse gases. The world cannot collapse twice.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a non-profit, independent news organization that brings you reliable facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.
It was written by: Rachel Kyte, University of Oxford.
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Rachel Kyte is affiliated with VCMI – Carbon Markets Integrity Voluntary Initiative, and Climate Resilience for All CRA
