by When the general election was announced last month, Ruud Jansen Venneboer’s heart sank. Not for personal reasons, he says, but because of the likely effect it would have on his vacation business. Since opening the Mazzard Farm cottages in Devon 17 years ago, he has discovered that Brits are far less likely to book a holiday before a general election – and this one is no different.
“United Kingdom [tourism] The market is completely dead right now, and it’s gotten worse since Sunak announced the election,” says Venneboer, whose homes are nestled in a secluded 17-acre woodland (ideal for escaping election fever, if you are so inclined). “Thank God there is strong interest overseas, but we haven’t had such a quiet June in 17 years of British bookings.
Amidst the cost of living crisis, the water scandals and Britain’s washing weather, consumer confidence is hardly staying high. According to recent research by The South West Research Company, the majority of south west England tourism businesses (68 per cent) say their outlook for July is “not as good as last year”. But even with those challenges, Venneboer says the reservations are “much quieter than I would have expected, which is why I know the election is having an effect. 2015 and 2017 election notices [in March and April respectively] also coincided with our peak booking season, and the same thing happened there.”
Demand for short-haul summer holidays is also falling, says an unnamed source at one of the UK’s biggest travel agents. Bookings for European package holidays are “down for the last two weeks,” they say, adding: “It doesn’t feel like last year at this point. [bookings] rising rapidly, then peaking in late July.”
This is no surprise to economists. In times of political uncertainty, consumers instinctively delay big-ticket purchases, says Sara Allbright, Director of Retail 100 Consulting, an expert on spending behavior. “People are becoming more concerned about volatility; in 2022, the Truss-Kwarteng budget changed everyone’s finances on a knife’s edge, and it’s still fresh in our minds. Post-Covid, people are prioritizing holidays, but they are more attuned than ever to how politics affects their lives.”
The snappy timing of the election, in the least, did not add to its effects, says Justin Penny, Head of Aviation at Flight Center UK. “Elections certainly affect holiday patterns, but this one has less of an impact because it’s a short window: if it drags on to the autumn, bookings may have dropped off. Although corporate travel is now seeing a decline, as businesses stop spending.”
Some people are more influenced by holidays than others, says Frances Torrilla, CEO of Dertour UK, whose companies include Kuoni, Kirker and Jules Verne. “Our older customers tend to book after summer or early in the year, not July, so this election doesn’t affect us,” says Torrilla. “But if so [Sunak] having announced it now, for the October election, we may have noticed an impact.”
Bargains for the brave
In fact, the British reluctance to spend in times of political uncertainty is so predictable, that some holiday companies proactively dropped their prices as soon as Sunak hit the podium. Good news, then, for those of us willing to buck the trend – there may be bargains to be had now.
“[In] and before the elections we always have to go out strong with offers,” says David Goldsmith, Head of Marketing and Sales at Shorefield Holidays, which has holiday parks across Dorset and Hampshire. Thanks to this tactic, Shorefield has seen a 38 per cent year-on-year increase in bookings since the election was announced – but it had to take a toll on money. “To see this increase we had to reduce our holidays by an average of 17 per cent,” says Goldsmith, “from an average booking price of £469 to £401”.
Alistair Handyside, Chairman of PASC UK, which represents self-catering rental businesses, believes Britain’s rainfall, not politics, is to blame for its sluggish holiday market. “Right now, the obstacle is the terrible weather, not the election,” he said. “Like booking, it’s quiet out there – and there are incredible deals and holiday rentals in Britain trying to fill a lot of capacity. I have never seen such huge discounts for the summer.”
Last-minute flight deals may also be coming, as the fall in corporate travel means airlines are likely to cut prices in the coming weeks, says the Flight Centre’s Penny. “As airlines try to fill their empty seats, they will launch sales for leisure travelers, so we should see some good prices before the summer holidays.”
Any particular destinations to look out for? “The US is a huge corporate destination, so keep an eye on transatlantic flight prices – especially to New York.”
However, the 4th of July is not necessarily the end point: 2024 is a big election year around the world, with more than 60 countries hosting national elections, including the US presidential vote in November . “This amount of uncertainty could have an even greater impact on fees,” says Penny.
But savvy holidaymakers are booking now, says Allbright, as Britain’s post-election consumer confidence is likely to lead to bookings – and prices. “Whatever happens, we’ll know where we stand, so some stability will come back,” she explains. “If there is a perceived improvement in the cost of living in July, people are likely to start spending, and demand will be higher – so prices will rise.” In the midst of any uncertainty, that’s something we can all count on.
