by With only days left until South Africa’s closest election since the dawn of democracy three decades ago, John Steenhuisen took to the stage and promised to rescue South Africa from its current government.
The last election crowd of the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s largest opposition party, was like the party itself: slick, well-organized and aggressive.
The 48-year-old leader told thousands of blue-clad supporters at the Johannesburg stadium on Sunday that the African National Congress (ANC) had for years brought unemployment, corruption and anarchy.
But help is coming, he told the multiracial crowd: “On Wednesday we close the chapter on ANC rule.”
This week’s election is on course to mark a watershed in South Africa’s post-apartheid history.
The ANC, Nelson Mandela’s party, has ruled outright since 1994. But this week it is expected for the first time to fail to achieve the 50 percent vote share required to govern on its own. A new era of alliances is emerging.
Appalling levels of unemployment and crime, crumbling public services, broken promises and the taint of corruption have driven voters away.
Faced with such a sleazy and dirty opponent, the DA, known for its edgy politics, pro-business policies and competent administration at the local level, should have a great chance.
Since 2009, the party has run the Western Cape province – the only province not held by the ANC and the only province given a clean bill of health by the auditor general.
Public services in the Western Cape are fairly well run. The economy is creating jobs and attracting investment.
That is a far cry from other provinces, said Nomawethu Somgoyo, 59, a DA voter originally from the Eastern Cape.
“It’s terrible down there, where I’m from,” she said. “No water sometimes for a month at a time, so there is no hygiene.
“People are hungry down there. They have no life. That’s what gets you a vote for the ANC there, in my house.”
Ms Somgoyo said she could not understand why more people were not choosing to support the DA in Johannesburg. “They don’t lie to us,” she said.
Despite such endorsements, and although the party has long been the second largest party in the country, opinion polls show that it has struggled to capitalize on a loss to the ANC.
Its predicted share of the vote is hovering firmly in the mid-20s, while the ANC is expected to hover around the mid-40s.
The Ð’s struggle to gain wider popular support is not surprising, according to observers. Thirty years after the end of apartheid, politics, like much else in South Africa, is viewed through the prism of race.
The DA struggled to shed its reputation as the party of the wealthy white minority, in a country where the black majority was once oppressed by white governments.
“The DA has some talented politicians, there’s no doubt about that,” says one European diplomat.
“But I doubt South Africa could elect a white person to lead the country right now.”
The DA has long been accused of promoting the interests of white, Asian and mixed-race people, in a country where those three groups together make up only 18 percent of the population. Black Africans make up more than 81 percent of the population.
The party traces its roots to the main white anti-apartheid party. Its leadership and top fliers are predominantly white, even if most of its supporters are black.
“Race is the main problem for the Democratic Alliance,” says Max du Preez, a newspaper editor and political analyst.
“It doesn’t have enough black leaders in its highest ranks, and race in South Africa is really important given the long history and horror of apartheid.”
“If record of governance is the only consideration in how you should vote, the DA should get a two-thirds majority and the ANC should get nothing. But that’s not how it works.
“It’s about symbolism, history, and remembering the huge inequality in society. I would love to have a DA government, but it can’t be.”
‘People are looking beyond race’
The DA denies he has a problem with race. “People are looking beyond race towards competence, [the] the ability to get things done and be able to deliver – that’s the game in town and that’s what the next election will be,” said Mr Steenhuisen.
Due to the difficulty of conducting accurate polls in South Africa, election forecasts have varied throughout the campaign. But the latest figures seem to indicate that the ANC will get less than 50 per cent of the vote.
The shape of any coalition will depend on how far below the threshold the party slips. In his mid-40s, he might be able to cross the line by joining a few smaller parties. Below that, he will have to look for a bigger partner – and make bigger concessions.
To broaden its appeal, the DA has formed a broad coalition of smaller parties to bring down the ANC, although it is not clear that the agreement will hold if the ANC starts trying to poach partners.
Although Mr Steenhuisen says the ANC must go, he has not ruled out a post-election deal with the party, if it has what it takes to keep the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe ex- president Jacob Zuma out of government.
“I’m not ruling anything out depending on the outcome of the election, going forward,” he said earlier this year.
