by The polls may not show it yet; in fact they are still very damaging to Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party. But many good things have happened to the Tories this week. Credit is due where it’s due – that feeling we’ve had for weeks and months now, that the Conservatives are facing some kind of electoral apocalypse, about to disappear with the dinosaurs, has been replaced by something more nuanced that feeling.
I understand that some of you still think that the Tories have done such a bad job of squandering Boris Johnson’s 80 seat majority that they deserve not just to be punished but to be destroyed. Sunak is still viewed by his harshest critics as an abandoned, unelected manifesto whose five-point plan is in danger of failure. With tax, spending and immigration all on the rise over the past 14 years, the Conservative malaise is palpable and understandable.
However, Sunak’s decision to call a general election on July 4 is quickly being confirmed as a rare example of sound strategic political thinking by the Prime Minister. Not only has he caught the Reformation off guard, but he has also caught Sir Keir Starmer with his socialist pants down. Labour’s defeat of Diana Abbott’s candidacy in Hackney North dominated the headlines, completely overshadowing Wes Streeting’s NHS proposals and Rachel Reeves’ economic plans. He also reminded the electorate that Labour’s case is as big as that of the Tory party.
After the Conservatives of the “broad church” have long been accused of fighting like rats in a bag, we are now seeing Labour, left and right, losing their faith. Despite the insanity of handing the shepherd back to Abbott and spending days agonizing over whether she can stand for Labor despite her 37 years in parliament and a 33,000 majority, the fiasco gave voters an insight on how divided the future Labor government will be.
If they are like this when they are not even in power, what kind of hell will break loose when the keys are given by No. 10 for them? And while Labor has spent nine days serving up word salad and empty waffle (think “shadow chancellor investment through a partnership between strategic government and entrepreneurial business”), the Tories have devised some actual policies.
Indeed, Sunak was positively imaginative. Left-wing Generation Z-dominated social media platforms were clearly hated, but the pledge to “bring back National Service” has gone down a storm with the Tory base. A survey by More In Common found that, among the general public, more people support it than oppose it.
Nigel Farage, the honorary president of Reform, tried to kiss the idea, before being reminded that he himself had called for a National Service for 16-year-olds on his GB News show last year. And by his own admission, his decision not to run as MP is a direct consequence of Sunak firing the starting gun early last week.
A Savanta survey for this newspaper now suggests that Reform may have peaked at 11 per cent – with support now down to 9 per cent. Reform leader Richard Tice’s migrant tax plan is already falling apart after leading hotelier Sir Rocco Forte, who employs many foreigners at the Brown hotel in London and The Balmoral in Edinburgh, described it as “the craziest thing I’ve ever heard”. Anyone thinks that the Reform will stand 630 candidates, no time and even less money in the party’s coffers.
The Liberal Democrats aren’t faring much better, and the Greens are losing out on anti-sewer, socks and sandals (currently polling ahead of the Tories among under-50s, according to YouGov).
The gang’s campaign was hardly helped by the idiotic sermons of its relentless leader, Sir Ed Davey, who spent the week falling into Loch Windermere, childishly cycling down a hill with his feet in the air and riding on skids and slides. vein of a contestant on Total Wipeout. Despite noting his desperation, the Remainiac has been virtually absent from the campaign so far. If you can name a Lib Dem policy (and don’t work for the party), write in there.
The Conservatives were so politically astute when they announced the triple lock for pensions – a great piece of political spin in solving the problem they have caused by freezing tax thresholds for a long time.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was unequivocal on the airwaves this week, arguing that taxes will be cut if the Tories are re-elected. On the other hand, it seems Reeves could only promise not to raise them – although there is still confusion over what Labor might do with VAT, amid suggestions the party could lowering the VAT threshold for businesses to £50,000 after Hunt. he raised it to £90,000.
Yes, the Tories may have had to undo their own dirty work – but the effect of this has been to make pensioners feel more secure and Labor look more punitive. If the Conservatives continue to be bold, then fortune favors the brave. A lot is riding on the proclamation. Simply put, he needs to convince people that they will be better off under the Tories and poorer under Labour.
What we also saw this week was Sunak finally letting his guard down and showing us “the real Rishi”. Before it seemed The Daily Tthe telegraph podcast I hosted with Kamal Ahmed, I expected the Prime Minister to be his usual tetchy self (in that Savanta poll, voters rated the former Winchester boy and investment banker more “arrogant” than Starmer). But it looks like he’s finally got some media coaching.
Entering the studio on Tuesday in a restless mood, he gave us one of the most personal interviews of his political career, chatting about everything from Star Wars to faith and family. He appeared the person again. It was the nice Sunak we remember from green.
Sure, this is a short campaign, but we’ve seen some big surprises in recent years. What some pollsters (apart from the polls) are saying is that Labor’s lead may be overstated, and that the undecideds will have a big impact on the result.
Barring a Tory wipeout and a Labor landslide, Starmer’s snub could lead us to another Theresa May 2017, with herself as the emperor without clothes. Everyone laughed when Sunak first suggested a hung parliament. But the increasing momentum behind “no absolute majority” shows that the Tories are running a much better campaign than Labour.
