When will the next UK heat wave be?

The Met Office has dismissed reports of a heatwave next week as Britons brace for warmer weather as they finally get to brighten up their summer.

Several independent weather forecasting groups have claimed temperatures could reach as high as 28C next Thursday 13 June, sparking a heatwave.

However, the Met Office said reports of a heat wave were “not a good reflection of the current forecast”.

Met Office spokesman Stephen Dixon told Yahoo News UK: “There is a sign of high pressure to influence the weather from the west and south-west later this weekend and early next week, which some of the showers in the north may reduce, although this is likely to reduce. don’t bring the temperatures back to near average for this time of year.”

He said there will be a mix of sunshine and showers this week, as well as “there may be some thunder activity mixed in with this in the north”.

Dixon said: “Further south will tend to be drier, but even here the temperature will be slightly lower compared to recent days.”

At the end of last month, the Met Office dismissed reports that there could be seven weeks of rain this summer.

While temperatures could reach as high as 23C in London and the South East on Tuesday, this will drop into the late teens in much of the country as the week progresses.

In its long-range forecast from 8 to 17 June, the Met Office said there is “a slight chance of a more widespread spell developing for some time next week”.

What is a heat wave?

The Met Office says a heatwave is “a prolonged period of warm weather relative to expected conditions in the area at that time of year, which may be accompanied by high humidity”.

He said the UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of “at least three consecutive days” with daily maximum temperatures that meet or exceed the heat temperature threshold.

The threshold varies by country or county, from 25C in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and south-west England to 27C on the south-east coast of England and reaches 28C in London and other inland areas in the south and south-east.

What causes a heat wave?

According to the Met Office, heat waves are more common when high pressure is allowed to develop over a certain area, usually in summer.

Because high pressure systems are slow moving, they can persist over an area for a long period of time, days or even weeks, causing warm conditions.

The Met Office said: “They can occur in the UK due to the location of the jet stream, which is usually north of the UK during the summer.

“This may allow high pressure to develop across the UK and result in continued dry and settled weather.”

The Met Office said heatwaves are more likely to occur due to climate change, with heatwaves now 30 times more likely than before the industrial revolution due to the higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Is climate change making heat waves worse?

Many experts have said that climate change has increased the sweltering summer temperatures.

Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, said in July 2022 that the rising temperatures facing the UK would not be as high without global warming.

“All the amputations we have now are becoming more frequent, longer and hotter because of climate change,” she said. “Of course, all extreme weather events have an element of the natural chaotic variability of the weather system.

“Temperatures would be high without climate change, but they wouldn’t be as high as what we see – regardless of exactly what we see, we know for sure that it would be colder without climate change.”

Heat waves are made more intense and more frequent mainly because the overall temperature is higher due to global warming, so when weather systems such as summer high pressure occur, the heat is amplified.

Here’s what the weather will look like for every region of the UK, according to the Met Office.

London and the South East

A mostly cloudy start with the odd shower possible. Hot. Becoming windy with outbreaks of rain, mainly light, spreading erratically to the southeast through the evening. Becoming drier from the north-west in the evening.. Highest temperature 23°C.

Sunny spells on Wednesday but a chance of isolated and mainly light showers. Wind speed during the evening, especially on the coast. Maximum temperature 19°C.

Mostly dry with sunny spells but a chance of showers most days. Showers are more likely on Thursday. Some relatively cool temperatures, especially at night. Breezy in the day.

Southwest

A rather cloudy start and a little damp in places, otherwise mostly dry and bright at first. A band of cloud and patchy rain will arrive in the afternoon. Turning clearer, cooler and a little breezier into the evening. Maximum temperature 18°C.

A rather cool start to Wednesday, then a dry day with sunny spells for all. Winds easing a bit, but feeling a little cooler than the last few days. Maximum temperature 15°C.

Dry with plenty of sunny spells on Thursday. A band of rain may sweep south on Friday. Partly Cloudy but mostly dry on Saturday. Temperatures close to normal, with some cold nights.

Midlands

A mostly dry start, then a band of cloud and rain, locally heavy, will sweep rapidly southeast during the evening. Becoming drier and brighter during the evening. Turning breezier and feeling cooler and fresher. Maximum temperature 18°C.

A cold start on Wednesday, then a mostly dry day with plenty of sunny spells. A few showers are possible in the north. Fresh northwest breeze adding to the cooler feeling. Maximum temperature 15°C.

Sunny spells and scattered showers again on Thursday. A band of rain may sweep south on Friday. Partly Cloudy but mostly dry on Saturday. Temperatures close to normal, with some cold nights.

Northeast

Rain moving southeast through the morning, heavy at times with blustery winds, especially over the Pennines. Drier and brighter in the afternoon, with sunny spells continuing briefly in the evening. Maximum temperature 16°C.

On Wednesday, sunny spells and occasional showers which could be heavy at times. Fresh breezes during the day especially in and around showers. Maximum temperature 14°C.

Sunny spells and blustery showers through this period, heavier and more frequent over the western hills. Some relatively cool temperatures, especially at night. Best conditions on the east coast.

Northwest

A cloudy and damp start as a band of rain, locally heavy, sweeps rapidly south-eastwards over all parts during the day. Getting brighter with a few scattered showers after afternoon. Breezy and feeling cooler and fresher. Maximum temperature 16°C.

A northerly wind adding to the cooler feeling of the day on Wednesday. Sunny periods and scattered, locally heavy showers, these are most frequent in the north. Maximum temperature 13°C.

Sunny spells and scattered showers again on Thursday. A band of rain may sweep south on Friday. Partly Cloudy with some showers on Saturday. Temperatures close to normal, with some particularly cold nights.

Scotland

Clouds with rain, heavy at times, during the morning. This clears to leave a mix of bright or sunny spells, and blustery showers scattered through the rest of the day. Sunshine is best in the east. Maximum temperature 16°C.

Wednesday will bring another day of sunshine and scattered showers across the region, the best of the dry and sunny spells in the east. Maximum temperature 13°C.

More showers on Thursday, easing in the evening. A mix of showers and more persistent rain on Friday, easing again later. Drier on Saturday with only the odd shower.

Northern Ireland

Early rain will clear in the southeast to leave a mix of bright or sunny spells, with scattered showers, mainly in the west. Fresh westerly winds easing. Maximum temperature 15°C.

Wednesday will bring another day of sunshine and scattered showers, blustery at times but easing into the evening. Maximum temperature 14°C.

Stay unsettled over the next few days with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times, but still some good bright or sunny spells.

Wales

A mostly dry start, then a band of cloud and rain, locally heavy, will sweep rapidly southeast during the evening. Becoming drier and brighter during the evening. Turning breezier and feeling cooler and fresher. Maximum temperature 15°C.

A cold start to Wednesday, then a mostly dry day with plenty of sunny spells. A few showers are possible in the north. Fresh northwest breeze adding to the cooler feeling. Maximum temperature 13°C.

Sunny spells and scattered showers again on Thursday. A band of rain may sweep south on Friday. Partly Cloudy but mostly dry on Saturday. Temperatures close to normal, with some cold nights.