by Rumors are swirling that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may drop out of the presidential race this week, with reports that his team has courted both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for a possible partnership.
RFK Jr.’s current colleague has made it clear. Nicole Shanahan that the candidate “could walk out right now and join forces with Donald Trump”.
With FEC filings showing that his campaign donations don’t match spending, there are reports that RFK Jr. will step down. out of office as early as Friday.
But it doesn’t matter if the third-party candidate endorses Trump, Harris, or neither – where will his voters go, according to the polls?
RFK Jr. has already lost much of his support
The poll was extremely difficult for RFK Jr. to find, with significant variation in polling. This is often the case with smaller third party candidates.
Unlike Democrats or Republicans, it can be difficult to identify specific characteristics or demographics that unite those voting for RFK Jr., especially since they are spread across the United States.
So here’s what we know about their voters.
Since Harris entered the race, RFK Jr. has lost. a large amount of momentum in the polls, and he was unable to pick it up again.
Just before Biden dropped out, RFK Jr. had 8.5 percent to 10 percent of the national vote. As of July 21, however, he is only moving about 5 percent of the vote — and that number appears to be going down.
So what happened? This decline can be partly explained by the fact that voters often turn to third party candidates for lack of a ‘better choice’, and because they want a fresh face. By replacing Harris with Biden, some of those calls for change were answered.
So who’s stuck around?
The latest YouGov/Economist poll, conducted in part since the Democratic National Convention (August 17 to 20), shows RFK at 3 percent of the vote. This poll shows a higher number of young people supporting the independent candidate, with 5 percent of people under 30 planning to vote for RFK Jr.
Overall, his favorability as a public figure is fairly average, at -8 percent unfavorable overall. This is better than Donald Trump (-10 unfavorable) and JD Vance (-12 unfavorable).
His favorability was highest among Hispanic voters, according to the YouGov poll, at +4 overall.
Third party voters are unpredictable
The more important question is how much of the Democratic or Republican vote can be freed up by RFK Jr.’s departure.
Only 1 percent of Democrats said they are voting for RFK Jr. in a YouGov poll, compared to 3 percent of Republicans (including supporters). On average, a slightly higher number of Republicans have supported it so far. But the polls couldn’t clearly dictate whether more Biden or Trump 2020 voters came out to support Kennedy, and polls showed a mix of the two.
On average, various polls have shown little change when Harris and Trump compete (without third-party candidates); but when the surge is smaller, it tends to swing in Trump’s favor by +1 or +2 points, not the other way around.
Going to a third party candidate often means that a voter is unhappy with the options or the current situation. So it’s hard to say whether these same voters will go back to their previous party loyalties, or whether they’ll actually be more likely to do the opposite.
Additionally, 6 percent of people currently say they don’t know who to vote for or don’t plan to vote at all in November. Some of RFK Jr.’s voters, disaffected with Harris or Trump, are likely to abstain from voting.
But others — especially the RFK Jr. type of voter — will. who are more on the activist side (think anti-vaxx, distrust of government, and pro-guns) – still want their voice to be heard.
Stronger margins in New Mexico, Michigan and Nevada
When RFK Jr.’s decision could what really matters are the swing states.
It may be difficult to convince RFK Jr. voters. to shorten and where exactly they are concentrated, so numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt due to polling restrictions. But the Refield and Wilton poll (August 15) of 10 states shows that RFK Jr. had a wider lead. in some states than others.
Specifically, he has the strongest support in New Mexico (8 percent of the vote), Florida (5 percent), Michigan (5 percent) and Nevada (5 percent).
The same poll showed Harris ahead in New Mexico, tied with Trump in Nevada and Michigan, and Trump’s lead in his pick state of Florida.
While it’s unclear exactly where RFK Jr.’s voters will turn, the higher margins could turn the tide in these and other states.
If, and when he decides, RFK Jr.’s endorsement could. for Trump to give further momentum to the former president’s dwindling national numbers. But it remains to be seen whether RFK Jr.’s voters will. in line behind the convicted criminals.
