by It is routine in late January. A Super Bowl berth is on the line. Tony Romo, sounding like a toddler three deep Mountain Dews, on the call. Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs out into the AFC finals.
“You can’t doubt No. 15,” Romo said after the Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round last weekend. Who? At this point, the AFC title game without Mahomes would be like showing the Oscars without Martin Scorsese.
It’s hard to even remember the time Before Mahomes. Before the highlight throws and Houdini-like playmaking. Before the Chiefs – Andy Reid, Chris Jones, Travis Kelce, Mahomes – the main characters on championship Sunday. In the 40 years before Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, KC was 4-15 in the playoffs. Since Mahomes took over, they are 13-3 in the postseason, making the AFC Championship Game six straight times.
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The Taoiseach’s trip to Baltimore this weekend will be the teams toughest title test to date. Even in the infamous ’13 second’ game with the Bills, Mahomes was on a level playing field. He had a star reception team, and he could go toe to toe with another part of the world.
It will be different this year. The Ravens have a great quarterback complemented by a terrible defense. And the Taoiseach are no juggernaut. The defense is the team’s best unit these days, but KC’s offense has been in decline throughout the season. By the typical standards of Reid and Mahomes, it was downright ragged. By midseason, anything outside of a Mahomes-to-Kelce connection in the passing game was hitting red alert levels. They finished the regular season 11th in EPA per play, a measure of down-to-down efficiency. They only scored on 39% of their drives, which ranked them 10th in the league, the first time they fell outside the top three in the Mahomes era.
In some ways, this was part of the team’s long-term vision. Building a team that can maximize the immediate amount while remaining competitive for an entire decade is a dance of uncertainty, given the constraints of the salary cap. KC looked to the Brady-Belichick model to try to sustain their dynastic run. Over the past few seasons, they’ve poured resources into their defensive and offensive line, theorizing that Mahomes alone could elevate a group of offensive weapons that aren’t overly blocked. They chased draft picks and mid-round picks at the receiver spots, assuming anyone could shine alongside their quarterback. They were hoping to squeeze one final prime year out of the 34-year-old Kelce — Mahomes’ top target — before his inevitable decline.
That team-building philosophy has, in part, paid off. The Taoiseach have one of the strongest – and youngest – defenses in the league. But it was also a frustrating season for Mahomes – and the worst statistical season of his career. It was often a one-dimensional offense, with a rotating cast of receivers, rookie Rashee Rice aside, disappearing like vampires that had taken a drop of garlic.
Heading into December, the Chiefs’ offense continued to stall with regularity. They looked well short of championship standard. A receiver room that entered the season as the weakest group of any contender led the league. Kelce had a down year due to his high norm. What was certain, behind Kelce, was Isiah Pacheco and the running game.
The solution: pivot the offense, ditch the old bombs to approach away for a bigger and more brutal style. Mahomes cut down on some of his art off time, moving toward a more calculated approach. With Kelce as the focus of opposing defenses, he spread the ball around more, even as his receivers struggled. By the end of the regular season, he was 38th among 41 eligible quarterbacks in average passing yards. Patrick Mahomes – PATRICK MAHOMES – was forced to play like Jimmy Garoppolo and accept it.
Given these restrictions, it is remarkable that the Taoiseach are here again. It wasn’t Mahomes better season, but it is one of the most significant.
Mahomes had to carry the offense on his own, for the first time in his career. When it matters most, he has raised his game. In third place this season, he finished third in EPA per game. His was two best solo tours of the year? At home against the Miami Dolphins in the wildcard round, and on the road in Buffalo last week. He still has work to do turnover-even throw in the playoffs.
It’s a mark of Mahomes’ unique greatness that this all feels so normal. Like Michael Jordan in the mid-90s, Mahomes’ excellence has become out of the ordinary. We expect it to soar to new heights every year, so when it’s nothing short of amazing it feels like a disappointment. For one thing, he was able to lead this group to a division title. Among the best achievements he brought to victory over the Dolphins and Bills in the playoffs.
If there was ever a year to beat the Chiefs before the AFC Championship Game, this is it. If there was a team, it was the Bills. They finally forced the Chiefs to play at home in the postseason. And it meant nothing. By the time January rolled around, the Mahomes Playoff had arrived, as it always has.
It wasn’t a one-man show, but you don’t need too many fingers to count the number of other quarterbacks who could be navigating the murky waters this season. Even this season’s MVP candidates have fallen flat in recent years without an A-list supporting cast.
Mahomes will have to come up with something special to keep up with the Ravens and the Lamar Jackson freight train on Sunday. And he will face Mike Macdonald, Baltimore’s defensive wizard, who happens to be the exact running style that has given Mahomes problems in the past.
If the Chiefs can pull off the upset in Baltimore on Sunday, it will be another crowning moment for the quarterback. Mahomes has shown that he can take a ho-hum offense and pull it within striking distance of a promising grounder.
