by Nuclear fusion power was supposed to be a dream come true. As soon as we found out that you could break little atoms combined to make larger atoms and release a small amount of energy in the process, scientists around the world realized the implications of this new bit of physics knowledge. Some wanted to turn it into a weapon, but others wanted to develop it into a clean, efficient, and reliable supply of electrical energy.
But it turns out that the fusion power is … hard. Very difficult. Very complex. Full of unexpected pitfalls and traps. We’ve been trying to build fusion generators for three-quarters of a century, and we’ve made a lot of progress — huge, ground-breaking, horizon-expanding progress. But we are not there yet. Fusion power has been one of those “only 20 years away” things for about 50 years now.
The main challenge is that while it’s relatively simple to do fusion – we’ve done it all the time with thermonuclear weapons – it’s much more difficult to make the reaction slow and controlled while extracting useful energy.
Related: The ‘decision’ of a nuclear fusion reactor is significant, but it is light years useful
In the modern era, there are two major approaches to making an effort useful nuclear fusion power. One is based on a process called inertial confinement, where you fire a laser beam at a small target and it explodes, starting a brief fusion reaction. In December 2022, the Department of Energy’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) made headlines for using this method to achieve “break even,” where more energy is released from the fuel than went into it.
The other approach is based on magnetic confinement, where plasma is subjected to powerful magnetic fields until it begins to fuse. The experiments here have made significant progress but have engaged in constant struggles to ensure that the plasma remains stable, which is essential for a stable fusion reaction. The latest iteration, called ITER, is currently being built by an international research consortium, which hopes that, when completed, ITER will be the first magnetically enclosed device to achieve break-even.
But the NIF is not designed to generate electricity, and it is not clear how to turn its process into a power plant. For its strength, it produced a whopping five cents worth of electricity through fusion. Moreover, “break even” has a technical meaning that is disappointing. Yes, the fuel released more energy than was absorbed, but only less than 1% of the entire device’s energy went to the fuel in the first place. As for ITER, the facility is hopelessly out of whack mismanagement and cost overrunsand it is not even designed to generate electricity itself.
When will fusion power finally happen?
I cannot say for sure when, if ever, we will achieve sustainable fusion power. But here are my odds, constructed entirely unscientifically: a 10% chance in the next 20 years, a 50% chance in the next century, a 30% chance within the next 100 years, and a 10% chance that it will never happen. .
Where do I find these numbers? Fusion power is what I like to call a generational, or age-level challenge. Humanity has accomplished these types of projects before: massive irrigation projects at the dawn of human history, the construction of huge temples and cities, and the development of steam power, railroads, cathedrals and more.
Typically, these projects require the participation of several generations. Sometimes we can accelerate our progress and bring it to fruition in a short amount of time by pouring huge amounts of resources into them and at the same time being really lucky with the right people, leadership, talent and know-how in place. We have seen this recently, with the Manhattan Project and moonshot initiatives.
Related stories:
— Pioneering nuclear fusion: What does it mean for space exploration?
—Physicists just rewrote a basic rule for nuclear fusion reactors that could release twice as much power
—Fusion experiment breaks record for energy generation, takes us one step closer to new power source
But in the mid-20th century, when we had the opportunity to devote a generation’s worth of time and money toward nuclear research, we had a choice between bombs and power plants — and we chose bombs. So when the line of research in the power plant didn’t progress that fast (because it wasn’t invested at the level of the century), starting in the 1950s, it just progressed and progressed.
This means that fusion research has the same priority as most other areas of research, which means that it will take about a century to come to fruition. But that’s okay. We will take our time with this, we will get it right, and it will be worth it.
