by During the first few days of the new year came some disturbing news: 2023 was the hottest year on record. That’s what researchers meant amid record-breaking daily and monthly temperatures – but just how significant the numbers were, and what it means for the future of our warming planet?
These charts show a clear picture of how it happened, as well as what is likely to come in the not so distant future.
How hot was 2023?
Copernicus, the climate agency of the European Union, confirmed this week that the global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius in 2023, almost 59 degrees Fahrenheit. That temperature was 0.17 degrees Celsius higher than the hottest year on record in 2016. Climate records are “going down like dominoes,” Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess said.
Compared to the average pre-industrial level from 1850 to 1900, last year was 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer, Copernicus found.
“Not only will 2023 be the hottest year on record, it will also be the first year with all days over 1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period,” she said. “The temperatures during 2023 are likely to exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.”
What causes the increase? According to data analyzed by scientists at the nonprofit Climate Center, it’s a combination of factors. Natural causes provide some variation in temperature, but humans had a much more significant influence on the temperatures observed during this period.
For the past 100 years, people have been burning fossil fuels loose Carbon dioxide – one of the most powerful planet-warming greenhouse gases – “at a much faster rate than at any point in 800,000 years of Earth’s history,” says Climate Central.
“The main cause of rapid global warming today is heat pollution from human activities,” the group explains. “… This year’s record average global temperatures indicate extreme and often dangerous heat events driven by human-induced climate change.”
1 degree Celsius – a small number with a big impact
Copernicus discovered that 2023 was the first year in recorded history in which each day exceeded 1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level. Almost half of those days were more than 1.5 degrees warmer, and two days – both in November – were more than 2 degrees warmer.
The data shows that every month was warmer than the same month in any previous year in the second half of 2023, and July and Augustt being the two hottest months on record. Climate Central found that a quarter of the entire world’s population felt a “strong impact of climate change” every single day in July, including 31 consecutive days of 110 degrees Fahrenheit in Arizona, an unprecedented ocean temperature off South Florida, and large-scale agricultural losses.
Record warm sea surface temperatures
Not only was it hot in the air last year, but also in the sea. Copernicus found that 2023 saw the highest daily global sea surface temperature ever recorded by ERA5, their climate reanalysis system. According to the group, sea surface temperatures typically peak in March and then see another uptick in July and August. But last year, every month from April to December saw record highs, with the high for the year being 21.02 degrees Celsius, or just below 70 degrees Fahrenheit, on August 23 and 24.
The climate pattern known as El Niño was created last year, contributing to global warming, but so far the natural event is not as strong as those in 2015 and 1997, Copernicus said.
Record number of billion dollar storms in 2023
Rising temperatures throughout the world’s air and oceans act as fuel for extreme weather, making hurricanes, rainstorms, droughts and other weather events stronger and more frequent. NOAA found that in 2023, there were 28 weather or climate disasters in the US that each caused $1 billion or more in damage, surpassing the previous record of 22 sets in 2020.
Until about 2008, the number of storms did not exceed a billion dollars five years, and it has increased significantly since then.
At the same time, the number of days between these major disasters has decreased, Central Climate found. In the 1980s, there used to be an extra 60 to 100 days between major events. In 2023, they happened every few weeks.
2024 – another year of potential climate impacts
Last year was warm, but experts agree that 2024 could be even hotter. The United Kingdom’s Met Office issued an outlook in December that suggests this year will be another record-breaking one, especially with rising temperatures brought on by El Niño. According to Met Office scientists, 2024 is likely to be between 1.34 degrees Celsius and 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. If that happens, it would be the 11th year in a row that average global temperatures were at least 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The Met Office’s Nick Dunstone said there is a “reasonable” chance that 2024 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that climate scientists have long warned would usher in an era of even more catastrophic weather events around the world.
“It is important to recognize that a temporary breach of 1.5 °C will not be a breach of the Paris Agreement,” he said in a statement from the Met Office, referring to the agreement by world leaders to commit to actions that would prevent to run this portal. . “But the first year above 1.5 °C is certainly a milestone in climate history.”
Officially passing the threshold would require a long-term average, not just the one-year average. However, as the temperature continues to rise, the impacts would continue to worsen.
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