by We’re only one week into 2024, but it’s already been a tumultuous year for nervous aviators, with two high-profile incidents raising questions about flight safety.
On January 2, a Japan Airlines aircraft collided with a coast guard plane at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, igniting a runway inferno that destroyed both aircraft. Five of the six crew on the smaller aircraft died, but all 367 passengers and 12 crew on the A350 survived a successful evacuation attempt.
Days later, on January 7, a hole the size of a refrigerator opened up on an Alaska Airlines passenger jet mid-flight. Phones and magazines (and even the shirt off a child’s back) were ejected from the depressurized aircraft, which made an emergency landing shortly afterwards. More than 170 Boeing 737 Max 9 jets have since been grounded while the manufacturer investigates the cause of the problem; The Civil Aviation Authority has required all planes to be inspected before they are allowed to enter UK airspace.
These sights are the stuff of nightmares, even for more confident flyers. But are there any worries about the events of the past week?
Flying is safer than ever
The short answer to the above question is: no. Despite the events of the past week, commercial aviation has never been safer. There were only two fatal commercial aircraft accidents in 2023, making it the safest year on record. The accidents (occurring in Nepal and Brazil) involved propeller aircraft on domestic flights, with a total of 86 deaths.
However, not a single international flight or passenger jet was involved in a fatal accident last year. By comparison, an average of 148 people die every hour in road accidents, according to UN figures.
Looking at data from the last century, logged by the Aircraft Accident Bureau Archives, the total number of air accidents per year (including non-commercial aircraft) has decreased significantly in recent years. Last year there were a total of 82 accidents, including private and cargo flights, but 50 years ago, when there were far fewer flights, that annual figure was 372 accidents.
So what are the odds of an accident? UN data for the past ten years show that (from 2013 to 2022) there was an accident rate of 3.47 per million departures: in 2019 (the last full normal year for aviation, before the pandemic) there were 46.8 million scheduled commercial flights worldwide, with 114 accidents, six fatal accidents and 239 deaths.
But turbulence is getting worse
Safer skies don’t necessarily make for a smoother ride. Serious turbulence has increased by 55 percent in the past 50 years, due to a more erratic jet stream that causes wind gusts to move at different speeds – a phenomenon caused by climate change.
Satellite data shows that severe turbulence has increased from a cumulative average of 17.7 times a year, at any point in the North Atlantic, to 27.4 times, according to the University of Reading.
“It may not seem like much, but this is a major disturbance that will knock you out of your seat if you’re not wearing a seatbelt,” said Dr Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric science within Reading’s meteorology department.
“This is just the beginning. We expect it to get much worse than this, and if we don’t cut emissions we will see two to three times the turbulence.”
Near misses are increasing
There have been no major aviation disasters in the United States for more than 10 years, but a recent New York Times investigation found that potentially dangerous encounters are occurring more frequently.
The report came after a private jet came within 100 feet of crashing into a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 taxiing jet at the San Diego airport. Earlier last year, a Southwest Airlines pilot aborted a landing at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport because of a Delta Air Lines plane approaching takeoff on the same runway.
These are just two examples of what the Federal Aviation Administration described as “skin-to-skin” incidents, according to records obtained by the New York Times. In the 12-month period analysed, there were approximately 300 accounts of near-collision incidents involving commercial airlines.
The runway is more dangerous than the skies
Although mid-air aviation accidents are on the decline, a study by US transport authorities found that runway incursions have increased over time.
“We see a disturbing number of runway incursions around the world, with the aircraft entering the runway when it is occupied or another aircraft close to landing on that runway,” wrote Adrian Young, a senior aviation consultant, in a recent blog for the aviation. counseling to7o.
There are also runway trips, for example when Tui’s plane “went off the runway” at Leeds-Bradford airport in heavy wind and rain. All passengers boarded unharmed, although other incidents have resulted in deaths, such as the 2020 Pegasus Airlines flight that overran the runway at Istanbul-Sabiha Gökçen International Airport during bad weather. Three passengers were killed. These runway trips, according to the International Air Transport Association, are “the most frequent type of accident”.
The UK bans airlines from these 25 countries
Despite the increasing safety of air travel, the UK Government publishes the UK Air Safety List, highlighting the countries and airlines that cannot operate in or out of UK airspace. This is separate from Foreign Office advisers who are safe to visit countries.
The list is mostly made up of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, including Pakistan, Iran, Armenia and the Russian Federation. The list is updated every three months by the Secretary of State for Transport, based on advice from the Civil Aviation Authority and the UK Air Safety Committee.
