by Good news: Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, thinks the economic outlook for the coming year is “the worst I’ve ever seen” — a challenge so severe that it should be a key concern for the Government and its successors Labour. . Instead, Westminster is deeply concerned about the release of last year’s immigration figures, which show a rise to three quarters of a million people who have the potential to see the UK as an attractive place to live.
There is no doubt that immigration is testing the old open-door consensus across Europe – from Geert Wilders’ victory in the Netherlands to central Germany to a left-led coalition anxiously promising to relocate failed asylum seekers them and that border controls will be strengthened. But the reaction to the 2022 annual figure of 745,000 net migration has been a matter of exaggerated horror among Tories facing a Bushtucker trial election year – with a self-inflicted fundamental flaw to face as Nigel Farage is about to return to the barricades.
Controlled immigration is a reasonable undertaking. But there are tough targets for minimizing numbers, although there is a need to sustain labour-intensive service industries and an NHS and care system that relies on smooth flows of workers, as a remedy for repeated defaults.
One of the things that London has in its favor is that many people who were born far away want to be here
London is a particular magnet (two-fifths of us were born outside the UK) and a place that proves the main point that immigration hardliners want to avoid: the economic recession of the capital since Covid is very much possible because the city drunk. in people who are strongly motivated to work. In the professions and financial services this new blood is also part of the race for talent that helps London maintain its international advantages. That offset the disincentive effects of Brexit – and also defied the worst predictions about its effects.
But it’s a precarious balance of public opinion, which depends on balancing commitments to deter illegal migration — and protection of the many virtues of legal diversity. If the plan’s approach in Rwanda is tough, the repeated introduction of small boats needs an answer that can’t be dismissed by saying that the problem only affects the kinds of people who don’t like it. Urban liberals listen to them. Poorly run asylum systems often lead to anger and a need for redress, if they are not to turn into more toxic Jews.
That’s not to lose sight of the benefits of keeping the doors open for people who benefit the economy. In fact it seems that this message has been put in front of the public by the Government (and an opposition willing to question the teetering authority of the Prime Minister).
The recent Social Attitude survey reveals a paradox. Britain has some of the most positive attitudes towards immigration among its international peers. That’s a reading that has changed for the better since the EU referendum — and the most likely conclusion is that people want clear and enforced rules about who comes into the country, but are tolerant of of those who come legally.
The political response, however, is promises of restrictions on immigration that would not benefit a changing modern economy.
The link between growth and immigration remains strong. And yes, public services need to keep pace to adapt to more people using them or in different concentrations than before. But the countries in the west with low immigration are often more desirable and attractive than those countries.
It is one thing to promise better education and skills for the UK-born workforce and more business investment — the Chancellor’s repeated prescription — but those results are not quick or cheap to deliver. The future of jobs in powerhouses like London will be a mix of adapting to technological change and the need to foster healthy flows of human capital.
It has become an omerta for the political class, but one of the things London has on its side is its resilience in the face of economic difficulties and the fact that many inspired people want to be born far away from the sound of Bow Bells. be here It’s an insult to the political class to say that, but it’s more of an asset than a headache.
Even counting the statistics that troubled the alarms as a one-time peak, immigration will have to remain at a firm level to contribute to the sagging success of the United Kingdom, the governor of the Bank has just pointed out. That’s fine. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a politician who cares.
Anne McElvoy is head of podcasting at Politico Europe
