by From tornadoes in Florida to flooding in Maine, a record setting freeze in Montana to blizzards in Buffalo, the weather in the United States has been quite a hit this past week. It left us, along with many Americans, wondering: What, exactly, is going on?
To get some answers, we called Jeff Masters, the meteorologist who co-founded the online weather forecasting service Weather Underground—and used to chase hurricanes for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
He told us that some of the winter weather is just, well, winter. But there’s also a lot that was unusual, like those tornadoes. Indeed, meteorologists are expecting the unexpected these days, he says, and are under increased pressure to predict, explain and protect their followers from the weather.
“The role of meteorologists is even more important now that the climate is changing in unprecedented ways,” says Dr Masters. “And we really need to understand what’s going on.”
Here’s another thing he told us, with changes in length and clarity.
Is it us, or is the weather just crazy this week?
You had a lot of hazards going on all at the same time. I mean, you had freshwater flooding from heavy rain. You had coastal flooding from these storms. And, of course, inland you had heavy snow. Buffalo got, I think, 40 inches of snow. And then down South you had tornadoes and big storms, lots of power outages, strong winds. So, we’ve had the full gamut of extreme weather over the past week. And cold, too. I mean, it’s pretty cold here in Michigan where I am.
How much of this extreme weather is due to climate change?
There is more heat in the atmosphere. And more heat means energy. So that means the energy to evaporate more water from the oceans and create heavier rain. We can put some of the extra precipitation we’ve seen from these storms down to climate change. The other way climate change can affect severe weather is through changes in circulation patterns. The jet stream, for example, is not behaving as it used to; it’s not going straight west to east like it usually does. It is causing these unusually strong ridges and troughs, increasing extreme weather events.
Does that mean climate change caused last week’s blizzards and record low pressure systems?
It is impossible to say what percentage of that was due to climate change. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a study you could do that showed there was a significant impact. But you would really have to do the work. It could also be that most, or all, of the extremes we’ve seen with the jet stream over the past week are natural variability.
One of the most active debates in the climate science community is the extent to which climate change is affecting extreme winter weather outbreaks. And it’s definitely not decided at this point. We have a lot more confidence in how climate change is affecting things like summer drought, heat waves, heavy precipitation events.
Do you think the wild weather will continue?
It will be an elegant year. This summer, especially. We currently have the highest amount of heat in the oceans on record. That means next summer should be a record hot summer, all over the world. And when you have record heat in the atmosphere, that means enough energy to power extreme weather events. So, we’re going to record heat waves, we’re going to record droughts and record rain events because you can evaporate more moisture in a warm atmosphere. And I’m very concerned about the Atlantic hurricane season, too. If you look at the tropical Atlantic region where hurricanes form, at the moment it is the same temperature as we usually see in late July. That’s pretty crazy that we have July-like ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic in January.
So what does this mean for us as a society?
Until we get to zero emissions and the planet stops warming, the weather will be more extreme. We really have to step up our game as far as responding to this new climate we’ve created. Our infrastructure in the US was built for a 20th century climate. And the climate of the 21st century is something completely different. If you have a city where the levees are built to withstand a one-in-100-year flood, what happens if that flood happens every 20 years? We have exceeded the 20th century capacity of our climate infrastructure.
You wrote about this and suggested large-scale changes that we need to make, such as no more building in areas at risk of flooding or wildfires. But what can everyday people do today to adapt to this 21st century climate?
If you go to the Federal Emergency Management Agency website, they have recommendations on how to protect your home from flooding. It makes sense to spend a few dollars to make sure your home is flood safe. You should also understand what your risk of flooding is. One tool I would recommend is a website called floodfactor.com. It basically gives you a rating of 1 to 10 on your risk from weather hazards. There is a flood rating, a wind rating, a wildfire rating, and a heat rating. It would be smart to build some flood protection if you live in a flood zone. Consider buying more flood insurance if you are in a flood zone. If you live in a wildfire area, there are many things you can do to make your home more fire resistant, such as creating a defensible space around it so you don’t have a pile of wood next to your house or deck wooden. or ledges where an easel can sink. There are many smart things you can do.
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