by As Australia prepares to compete in their fifth Asia Cup, starting against India on Saturday evening, so do the inevitable questions that come with these tournaments. How far can they go when the action starts in Qatar? And at what point will they have reached a reasonable level of expectation?
The goal of the 24 competing nations is victory. But even with the progress they have made in recent years, the stories of Thais Petar Šegrt or Malaysians Kim Pan-gon not winning at the Lusail Stadium come February 10 will be in stark contrast to those being spun. if Jürgen Klinsmann is from the South. Korea or Japan’s Hajime Moriyasu are not doing that.
And the Socceroos? The 2015 Asian Cup winners who were knocked out in the quarter-finals in 2019? In fact, it is difficult to hit a precise projection on them; they cannot be said to be at the same level of expectation as Japan or South Korea, but they are still capable of winning the tournament if everything breaks in the right way for them. They are capable of delighting or disappointing many times in the same game, let alone a competition.
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The postponement of the Asian Cup since June last year hasn’t helped, after China pulled out as hosts, Socceroos coach Graham Arnold is in a bit of a frenzy. The delay disrupted his plans to begin a squad renewal period for the 2026 World Cup cycle, leading him to speak of going to Doha as Triclops: “one eye on the Asian Cup, but there are two I have one. eyes on the World Cup”.
Add to this injury problems (Mat Leckie, Denis Genreau), retirements (Aaron Mooy, Tom Rogić, Massimo Luongo), the desert of the club (Ajdin Hrustić, Fran Karačić), and the difficulties of this competition that will take place during seasons European club (Alex Robertson , Alessandro Circati), and it is difficult to pick a 26-man squad.
However, there is considerable talent at hand. Harry Souttar, Jordan Bos, Connor Metcalfe and Riley McGree are players who shape up as core contributors for the 2026 cycle. They are complemented by veteran figures such as Jackson Irvine, Craig Goodwin and Mat Ryan who Arnold trusts will help him progress beyond the quarter final stage of this competition.
And if we’re doing historical flashbacks, there’s a level of serendipity in the move of this Asian Cup to Qatar, given that it was Australia’s achievements in Doha just over 12 months ago that managed to reset many stories around the team, and which forced a re-. an examination of what could – and should – be achieved.
No one expected Australia to make much of a splash at the 2022 World Cup, especially after previous rifts emerged at the worst possible time in qualification. But then they damned the discourse and doubts by putting on a historic run of round of 16 Clash in which they almost forced the eventual champions Argentina into extra time. A series of encouraging results against the likes of England, Mexico and Argentina have since followed suit.
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It’s enough to give you whiplash. It was largely the same team whose systemic and tactical foundations on the pitch remained largely constant under Arnold’s tutelage. But the results were very different. Was it a natural upward progression, marking a new baseline for the Asian Cup? Or was it a combination of circumstances, opposition, and other factors that created an output that must return to the mean at some point? Until the games start, we can’t be sure.
Of course, based on the results of the analysis, it is not unreasonable to think that a team that would reach the peak of the World Cup would be able to overcome that achievement in the continental equivalent afterwards. Such predictions are not falling back on historical habits of ignoring Asian opposition as much as recognizing and appreciating the Socceroos, as well as their remarkable achievement in the round of 16 of the World Cup.
But recent matches against Palestine and Bahrain, although both ended in victories, also indicated that difficulties in breaking down embedded defenses remain a concern. In Asia, teams are going to sit back, give the ball to the Socceroos, and try to beat them on the counter. That has not been the role of Arnold’s team in recent times.
In addition, Saudi Arabia and Japan could await in the quarter-finals and semi-finals – opponents the Socceroos handled with ease at the end of their sputtering World Cup 2022 qualification campaign. In a way, these games serve as discipline – a common opponent before and after the World Cup measuring the progress of the Socceroos.
Ultimately, it may be a milquetoast conclusion, from the “sometimes good, sometimes maybe shit” school of analysis, but it feels accurate. Going into the Asian Cup, the Socceroos’ ceiling is so high, but their floor is also lower, than other heavyweights.
