by Tottenham Hotspur have secured the most eye-catching piece of business of the January transfer window so far by signing former Chelsea boss Timo Werner on loan with an option to buy.
Ange Postecoglou has managed to turn Spurs into a dynamic attacking force despite the summer sale of Harry Kane, but the club are still in the process of rebuilding their front line after losing their top scorer.
Only Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah have scored more Premier League goals than Son Heung-min this season, who could be without Spurs for six weeks if South Korea go all the way in the Cup Asia.
Werner’s two seasons at Chelsea were under siege following a £47.5 million move from RB Leipzig in 2020, the German club bought him back for £25.3 million two years later.
The forward hasn’t set the Bundesliga alight since his return, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the style fit under Postecoglou at Spurs.
Similarities to Mac … but one big difference
One explanation for Werner’s struggles at Chelsea is that they couldn’t find their best position. Was he better through the middle, from the left, or part of a front two?
However, it is likely that Werner can be used as both a central striker and as a left winger which worries Postecoglou, as they are the two positions that require coverage in Son’s absence.
Richarlison can also play in both roles, with Postecoglou using the versatility of his attacking options. Against stronger opposition, particularly from Arsenal and Man City, Son has led the line impressively in more counter-attacking displays. Against teams that bank up behind the ball against Spurs, Mac can move to the left with Richarlison at No. 9 to push an extra scorer onto the field. Werner would be part of this rotation.
Postecoglou likes to keep his wings high and wide, with Tottenham’s full-backs driving into attacking midfield positions inside, meaning his wide players have to hold the explosiveness to deal with themselves and take advantage of the ones that create the system.
Like Son, Werner certainly has the pace that the Tottenham boss seems to prize. Even starting on the left, both players can threaten opposition defenses with outside runs. Werner had one of his best performances for Chelsea in the 2021 Champions League final, when his movement stretched Manchester City’s back line, clearing space for his teammates.
Comparing Son’s touch map this season with Werner’s from last season, when he played more often for RB Leipzig, we see two players who operate in similar zones. Son’s involvement comes a little higher up the field in an enterprising Spurs team.
The big difference between the two players, however, is their effectiveness in front of goal. In each of the last four league seasons, Werner has not met the expected goals after exceeding his basic data in the season before signing for Chelsea.
His first season at Stamford Bridge was a particularly cold one, which lost him the goodwill of many fans. Werner has scored just six goals in the Premier League from 11.45xG, with a miserable shot conversion rate of 7.6 percent. He was on the receiving end of 23 ‘big chances’ as defined by Opta, and missed 18 of them. Werner hasn’t been as aggressive since then, but he’s still a below-average finisher.
In contrast, in all but one of his Premier League campaigns (last season) Son xG has outperformed, often significantly. In three of the last four seasons, Son’s shot conversion rate was over 20 percent and his big chance conversion rate was over 40 percent in three of those four seasons. Werner Mac can closely replicate his position, but he cannot complete without peer.
Werner struggles to bounce back in the Bundesliga
Clubs are looking for January recruits who can contribute immediately, and Werner should have enough experience to avoid a long adaptation period.
However, Spurs are signing a player who has only started two Bundesliga games this season and one they need to nurse back to form.
Werner produced a respectable nine goals and three assists in 23 league starts for RB Leipzig last season, but has just 204 league minutes under his belt as well as 50 minutes of Champions League appearances. Due to Werner’s lack of minutes his output has almost disappeared this season.
A return to Germany was a chance for Werner to rediscover the form that first attracted Chelsea, but his shots and xG per 90 minutes numbers have not returned to the levels seen before his move to England.
RB Leipzig are far from dominant in Germany, but they were around the third strongest team in the Bundesliga last season, and sit fourth in the league for both points and expected difference in the this season. Their position in Germany is not a mile away from where Spurs sit in the Premier League.
One area where Werner continues to stand out statistically is progressive passes received. According to website FBref, Werner ranks in the top five percent of forwards across Europe’s five major leagues in this area, suggesting his movement is still able to separate him from his markers.
Spurs’ chaotic games might suit the German
In Werner’s two seasons under Frank Lampard and Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea averaged more than 60 percent possession in the Premier League. Only Manchester City and Liverpool had more of the ball. Teams tended to sit deep and absorb pressure against Chelsea, reducing the space behind where Werner loves to work. Chelsea Tuchel were a very orderly and structured team and the games were low scoring, which limited their ability over the league season but made them a successful cup team.
Spurs also have plenty of possession, but their football under Postecoglou is more direct and their games back and forth. This should appeal to Werner, who suits the early serve rather than facing a steady defense from a steady start.
Only Newcastle United games have produced more expected goals, at both ends combined, than Tottenham this season at 3.56xG per game. Spurs engage in helter-skelter contests, and seem to inspire them, giving Werner a chance to breathe after a claustrophobic tactical assignment at Chelsea.
Can he contain himself inside?
You may recall that Werner’s habit of running upfield was the subject of ridicule at Chelsea, with many goals disallowed due to his failure to set up his runs properly. In his first season at Chelsea, it was reported that he was offside 42 times in all competitions, more than any player in the Premier League.
This has also caused frustration and self-deprecating humor among Spurs fans, who have seen various ‘scores’ by Richarlison which were later chalked up for offside following a VAR review. In the Premier League this season, only Darwin Nunez has been caught upside more often than Son. Only Liverpool and Manchester United have been caught upside more times than Spurs as a team.
In Werner, Spurs have added another player born, as Sir Alex Ferguson once said of Filippo Inzaghi, upside down. This is a function of Werner’s style and strengths rather than a damning flaw, and can be hugely rewarding if he can stay on the right side of the line often enough. Spurs will certainly not lack a forward looking to survive on the shoulders of the ultimate defender.
