by There are two holy grails of air travel, moments of such unexpected serendipity that they are recited to friends and family for years to come. The first is the free upgrade, where you’re told, usually at the check-in desk, that you don’t need to spend the next nine because of your frequent flyer status – or simply. an hour with your knees in your face like the rest of the plebs.
The second is more rare, and no less sweet. Maybe you have an inkling while waiting to board. “Am I at the wrong gate?” you think, as other passengers do not. Then you board the plane to find you have it pretty much – or even completely – to yourself. A private jet experience at a fraction of the price.
Such a situation was seen on an Emirates flight from the Seychelles to Switzerland last Christmas, when a mother and her daughter (Kimmy Chedel and Zoe Doyle) were the only passengers in the economy class cabin. Similar cases were reported last year on flights from Faro to Belfast (with Jet2), from Ibiza to Jersey (with the Blue Islands), from Oklahoma City to Charlotte (with American Airlines) and from Fiji to Sydney (with Virgin Australia).
So how common are these “ghost flights”? And can you increase your chances of getting one?
One thing is certain: as airlines are increasingly quick to divest unprofitable routes, they are often able to switch to smaller aircraft in case of poor sales, and more capable of filling their cabins – with agile algorithms and AI at fixing of ticket prices to ensure. all seats are sold – they are becoming increasingly rare.
Before 2000, a passenger load factor (PLF) of around 70 percent was the norm. In 2005, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global average was 75.1 percent; in 2011 it was 78.1 percent; in 2019 it reached an all-time high of 82.6 percent. This means that on a normal flight with space for 200 passengers, there will be around 35 empty seats.
The Covid pandemic briefly captured the rise of aviation’s collective PLF. Indeed, it was a great time for “socially far back” travel. “I had the entire premium economy section of an Emirates A380 – 56 seats and three bathrooms – to myself on a flight from Heathrow to Dubai in January 2020,” said John Arlidge, aviation expert and frequent flyer. “Three months later, I was one of five World Club passengers on a BA service from Mexico City to Gatwick.”
Travel is back to normal – and PLFs are back to pre-pandemic levels, but, even with the high-tech tactics now used to fill every plane, and the importance of profit over prestige, flights happen still almost empty.
Why? John Strickland, an aviation consultant, explained: “If an aircraft is operating almost empty on a particular flight, it is likely to be quite full in the opposite direction so it cannot be cancelled. Another factor could be that there is cargo being carried which could mean that the flight is still profitable.” In addition, airlines lose valuable airport slots if they are not used enough – at least 80 percent of the time, under current rules (although there are proposals to reform those) – which encourages carriers to plow on even when there is a bad sale on a flight.
So what are the best tactics if you want to find yourself surrounded by empty seats?
The late show
Choosing an unattractive departure time is one obvious move.
“There’s no way to ‘guarantee’ you’ll end up on an empty flight, but you can certainly place good bets,” said Gilbert Ott, creator of the travel blog godsavethepoints.com. “Between New York and London, for example, the last flight of the day (in both directions) is usually the quietest flight, as business travelers prefer earlier flights. VS25 (Virgin departure 8.25pm) and BA183 (BA departure 7pm) to New York often have plenty of room in all cabins.”
In general, summer is when planes are most likely to be full, and winter is when the number of empty seats is at its highest. According to the IATA, the average PLF in Europe is 87 percent in July, and only 73 percent in February.
Flying during public holidays can also increase your chances. In the above example, Kimmy Chedel and Zoe Doyle struck gold with Emirates on a Christmas Day event, and Henry Harteveldt, a prominent US-based aviation analyst, said: “I’ve seen some people post like they’re the only passenger they are one. , or one of the few, on flights on major holidays such as Christmas, Thanksgiving in the US, and New Year’s morning.”
Conversely, flying with a budget airline is likely to reduce your chances. Ryanair is the undisputed master of seat cramming, with PLF ranging from 92 per cent in low season to 96 per cent in summer. EasyJet was at 89.2 per cent for 2023, while Jet2’s rate was 90.7 per cent. Conversely, the likes of British Airways, Emirates and Lufthansa usually fill around 80 percent of their seats, while Etihad’s PLF rarely tops 75 percent.
The weirder the better
Harteveldt also suggested flying to or from smaller cities to best hope for some breathing room, as well as airlines in a way they are not well known for offering. Therefore, a recently launched (but, in an ideal world, not much publicized) service could be a result. Additionally, if you hear that an airline has just discontinued a route (likely in response to low demand), boarding one of the last services could provide that private jet experience.
Civil Aviation Authority data confirms that choosing a deviant route can pay dividends. During the first quarter of 2023, for example, every flight from Gatwick to Mauritius carried at least 50 passengers, as did 99 per cent of flights from Heathrow to Barbados. Surprise, surprise: flights to tropical ideals during the peak winter season are usually full. But over the same period, 24 per cent of flights from Heathrow to Bulgaria, 39 per cent of flights from the UK to Azerbaijan and 83 per cent of flights from Britain to Kazakhstan carried less than 50 passengers. Is the exchange of Kazakhstan in the Caribbean really worth an empty cabin? That’s for you to decide.
tag game
Then there are “tag” ways as Harteveldt called it. “These are the continuation of a route from an airline’s home base or hub, where they are less known and where their load factors may be lower,” he explained. “There aren’t too many of these left, because aircraft now have a better range, and it’s expensive to operate these flights (if it’s a long route, it’s likely to require a change of crew, and of course the different crews. have an adequate rest period between their flights). One example is Sydney-Christchurch, offered by Emirates, which is probably a tag on Dubai-Sydney. A friend of mine flew this service and was the only passenger in the premium cabin.
“I also believe that KLM is flying between Buenos Aires and Santiago, continuing the airline’s Amsterdam-Buenos Aires route. Likewise, it operates an Amsterdam-Singapore flight that continues to Bali. And Air France serves Los Angeles-Tahiti as a tag from one of its Paris-Los Angeles flights.
vanity flights
At one time, airlines operated several routes for one award. If your arch competitor flies London to JFK, so should you – never mind the empty seats or the financial losses. Politics can also play a part. In 2015 it was even alleged that United sent flights from Newark to Columbia, South Carolina, as a favor to the former chairman of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Non-profit routes are then kept open thanks to government subsidies (in the UK, these are called public service obligation routes and include those used to connect the airports of the Scottish Islands and Glasgow).
These are now few and far between. “However, airlines will run additional flights between the main hubs as a defensive tactic,” Ott said. “Many times a year airlines run multiple daily flights to, say, Santorini, just to offer more choice, even though they can’t really sell all the available seats. Being able to offer that option is designed to capture more bookings and win all day long. This is common on routes like London-Dubai, where frequency is important.”
Ott added that frequent disruptions create the empty flight cases that gather the headlines: “I have experienced them myself during irregular operations when a flight was canceled or greatly delayed and only a few stragglers stayed and finished on the plane.” Every cloud has a silver lining.
Will my flight be empty?
So you’ve booked your flight to Kazakhstan, flying on Christmas Day, with the most unsociable departure time available – can you find out in advance how busy the cabin will be?
“It’s hard to know how full or empty your flight can be,” Harteveldt said. “You cannot go over the seat map for your flight, because seat maps do not show the number of reservations, but the number of people who have chosen a seat at that moment. Remember that airlines may charge a fee to reserve a seat before flight check-in opens. As a result, passengers can wait to select their seats when check-in opens and can select their seat for free.”
Ott added: “I used a tool called ExpertFlyer to look up live seat maps and let people out of the right seats in economy to find each other. The best hack now is to be one of the last people to board and ask the gate agent if there are any seat gaps you can take advantage of.”
What happens on a free empty flight,
So you’ve hit the ghost jackpot – now what? You’ll have plenty of room for your bag in the overhead bin, more attentive cabin crew (on the Jet2 flight mentioned earlier, the cabin crew kept referring to their only passenger as “King Paul” and the flyer was called American Airlines “all the food and drink I wanted”), and fewer people coughing, snoring and hanging around in the aisle with their backs to you.
And definitely upgrade to business class? Think again. Just because those seats are empty in advance, don’t assume that the cabin crew will offer you one. That was the case with Kimmy Chedel and Zoe Doyle last Christmas, when the premium seats on their Emirates flight remained unlimited. And when Kai Forsyth from Derbyshire was the only passenger on board a BA flight from Heathrow to Orlando in January 2022, he too was denied the luxury of a premium seat and was forced to stick together of economy class turned into a transfer bed. Not quite the private jet experience, but an improvement nonetheless…
