by Speculation is growing that Nigel Farage could return to frontline politics – he could help Reform UK by ensuring next year’s general election focuses on immigration.
Farage, who recently came third in the reality TV show I’m a Celebrity … Get Out Of Here!, he did not rule out a return, but rejected the idea of rejoining the Tories. Rishi Sunak is facing a turbulent time as Conservative leader, struggling to win the support of his own MPs for his Rwanda bill, with many thinking the issue could not only cost him his leadership – but the Tories’ next election.
According to some polls, Reform UK – of which Farage is honorary president – is becoming more popular, and threatens to lure Conservative voters away from the party. An Opinium poll for the Observer Reform UK put it at 9%, and also suggested that 37% of current Conservative voters would be more favorable towards Reform with Farage as leader. It comes after Mailonline reported last week that Redfield & Wilton Strategies polled Reform UK at 11% – up one per cent, and two percentage points behind the Liberal Democrats.
Reports have suggested that Farage plans to “shape politics” ahead of an election in 2024, with some suggesting that Reform UK is planning a press conference at the start of January to launch its campaign to create an “immigration election”. .
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What is Reform UK?
Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage founded Reform UK as the ‘Brexit Party’ in 2018, with many former UKIP members as members. The party, which advocated Euroscepticism and a no-deal Brexit, was re-registered as Reform UK in January 2021. That same year, Farage stepped down and was replaced by party chairman Richard Tice, who is still its leader. Reform UK’s name was tweaked to Reform UK: The Brexit Party in November 2023.
The slogan of Reform is ‘Let’s Make Britain Great’ – which suggests that it is similar to the policies of Donald Trump. On its website, the party calls for reform in the way Britain is run, saying: “We must get Brexit right and save the Union by protecting Northern Ireland. We must grow our way out of the crisis, we can’t tax our way out We must stand up for our core democratic values, our civil liberties, our right to free speech Let’s celebrate our pride in being British: our great culture, our unbreakable communities, our -incredible heritage. holding us back.”
He also takes a hard line on immigration, saying: “Let’s make a proper immigration policy that works for our country and protects our borders. This means net zero immigration so we can train and support our own people. It means zero immigration Illegal. Together, let’s make great things happen.”
How much of a threat is Reform UK to the Conservatives?
Since immigration is one of Rishi Sunak’s biggest challenges – also from within his own party – Reform UK could be a real threat to the Prime Minister and the Tories.
According to some commentators, Conservative voters are switching to Reform UK amid concerns that the party has broken its promises on immigration. Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, which describes itself as a “thought leader, strategy and communications consultancy and incubator”, told the Telegraph that Reform UK was benefiting from new support made up of Red Wall voters who had delivered a landslide Boris Johnson. in 2019.
He told the newspaper that the reasons for those voters to move included feeling that the Conservatives had “broken promises” on immigration. what you’re seeing now is driving some 2019 Tory voters into the arms of Reform,” he said.
It comes after a YouGov poll commissioned by Sky News found in November that 12% of Tory voters in 2019 would now back Reform UK, while 11% had switched to Labour, while 40% said they would vote Conservative yet.
The leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, has suggested that he plans to capitalize on such sentiments by fighting the next election as an “immigration election”. He said Conservative MPs should be “sh***ing themselves” about threats from his party in the next general election, telling PoliticsHome: “The last one was ‘Brexit done’, the next one will be an immigration election.”
Tice’s comments link to Farage’s own warning that Reform UK’s stance on immigration will pose a threat to Sunak and the Conservatives. Speaking on GB News, Farage said: “The next general election and British politics for the next few years will be completely and utterly dominated by immigration… What is certain is that Sunak is on the way to lead the Conservative Party to their worst election result to date and frankly, I think they very much deserve everything that’s coming their way.”
How much of a threat is Farage to Sunak?
Farage himself was unexpectedly popular in I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here, coming third in the competition – with some polls suggesting he is more popular than Rishi Sunak. That popularity could pave the way for Farage to return to frontline politics, adding to the threat posed by Sunak and the Tories.
Farage has warned that Sunak faces a “catastrophic defeat” at the next election, suggesting Labor could capitalize on their predicament. He also pointed to his own popularity, pointing to a JL Partners poll for The Sun newspaper which suggested Farage had a net popularity rating of plus 18 among Conservative voters in 2019, while Sunak’s rating was -3.
