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Satellites in SpaceX’s Starlink mega-constellation have performed nearly 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the past six months, roughly double the number performed in the previous half year.
Although experts recommend Elon Muskand space company for its commitment to transparency, they warn about the implications of the growing orbit.
SpaceX showed the latest increase Constellation Status Semi-Annual Reportwhich was filed with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on July 1. According to the report, on average, each Constellation the satellite fired its thrusters 14 times between December 1, 2023, and May 31, 2024, to avoid orbiting objects, such as other Starlink satellites, spacecraft owned by other operators and pieces of it. space debris. Within that same six-month period, the Starlink constellation grew from approximately 5,100 operational satellites to 6,200 spacecraft.
SpaceX also said it lowered the threshold for maneuvers by another order of magnitude, meaning a satellites move now to avoid a possible collision when the chance of winning is only one in a million. That threshold, SpaceX said in the report, is 100 times lower than the industry standard.
SpaceX began deploying the Starlink constellation in May 2019 and within a few months became the world’s largest satellite operator. The mega-constellation quickly became a concern for space sustainability experts as it ushered orbital traffic into a whole new era – an era in which the collision-avoidance maneuvers it is a daily necessity rather than an occasional inconvenience. During the first four years after the first Starlink launch, the number of evasive maneuvers kept doubling every six months, reaching 25,299 in the half year before 31 May 2023. Between May and December 2023, the number of same maneuvers. despite an increase in the number of satellites.
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Hugh Lewis, professor of astronomy at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom and Europe’s leading space sustainability expert, told Space.com that the recent doubling must be mainly due to the reduced maneuvering threshold that SpaceX now uses.
“Starlink satellites would have performed approximately 25,000 maneuvers in the period from December 1, 2023, to May 31, 2024, if the threshold remained the same,” Lewis said. “This is about the same as the previous two semi-annual reports, despite the increase in the number of satellites in the constellation.”
Lewis, who has been monitoring the effects of megaconstellations on orbital safety for years, said he would expect a higher number of maneuvers, considering the increased size of the constellation.
“I would expect that an increase in the size of the constellations would lead to a higher number of maneuvers, but I suspect that the increase solar activity also causes a reduction in the debris population throughout the Starlink altitude,” said Lewis.
Space weather around the World, due to coronal mass ejections and other solar eruptions, the weak gas thickens in the upper atmosphere of the planet where satellites orbit. As a result, the spacecraft experience a higher drag there, pulling them to a lower altitude. The IS powerful solar storm which hit the Earth in May this year, which triggered spectacular aurora displays around the world, for example, the reduced height of satellites in low earth orbit almost half a mile, according to a recent study. Dead satellites and other pieces of space debris may have sunk several kilometers during the four-day event, according to the study, which would have caused them to re-enter more quickly. The Earth’s Atmosphere.
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Starlink satellites make their decisions to avoid other objects autonomously while using on board AI. Although an increasing number of maneuvers are designed to make orbital operations safe, it can also have a negative impact on predicting future collisions. Study by the Pennsylvania-based Commercial Space Operations Center (COMSPOC), published last year, found that each collision avoidance maneuver throws off satellite path forecasts for several days. After maneuvering, the actual positions of the satellites may differ from the predicted ones by up to 25 miles (40 kilometers), making collision predictions inaccurate.
Lewis added that the more maneuvers Starlink satellites perform, the faster they use up their propellants, thereby shortening their operational lives. SpaceX is committed to a zero-debris policy related to Starlink and therefore decommissions the satellites at the end of their lives. In the six-month period covered by the latest report, only one satellite successfully de-orbited.
SpaceX continues to build out the Starlink mega-constellation, which could eventually have up to 42,000 satellites. According to Lewis’ prediction, the number of Starlink evasive maneuvers will continue to rise in the next few years as well, reaching 80,000 per half year by 2027.
