by The final weekend of the 2024 Six Nations kicks off with the championship still on the line. After England beat Ireland in the last round of the games it means that a possible four teams can still claim the title.
On ‘Super Saturday’, March 16, England will face France and Scotland will face Ireland in Dublin. It is mathematically possible for any of those teams to win, although Ireland are the favorites and England are the favourites, even though they are very much outsiders. Ireland will be aiming for a second successive title while England will be aiming for their first title since 2020.
With Ireland playing for first place and needing just two points to retain their crown, they may well be playing to secure second place by the time England kick off in Lyon. Ireland last lost to Scotland in 2017 and not since 2001 have they beaten Ireland by more than seven points in the Six Nations.
Italy and Wales will face off in Cardiff for the real Wooden Spoon game.
How to watch the 2024 Six Nations on TV
Games this year are being shown on both the BBC and ITV in the UK. Live streams are available for free on the BBC iPlayer and ITVX apps, and can be downloaded to mobile or tablet devices.
The long-term future of the Six Nations on free-to-air television is uncertain after the British Government rejected calls to add the tournament to the list of sporting events that must be shown for free. This has alarmed seasoned observers such as Martin Bayfield, who believe the competition is not being promoted properly.
2024 Fixtures and results of the Six Nations as a whole
All times GMT
Round one
Round two
Round three
Round four
Round five
Saturday, March 16th: Wales v Italy
Start: 2.15 p.m
Centre: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
Channel: BBC
Saturday, March 16th: Ireland v Scotland
Start: 4.45 p.m
Centre: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Channel: ITV
Saturday, March 16th: France v England
Start: 8 p.m
Centre: Groupama Stadium, Lyon
Referee: Angus Gardner (Aus)
Channel: ITV
What are the final round permutations?
The table and the story are very much in favor of Ireland and England because of the outside alone. Scotland and France can still win the title but they still have a better chance than Steve Borthwick’s men.
The easy way…
The simplest way for Ireland to win a second title in a row is for them to win or draw against Scotland or lose to get just two bonus points – by conceding less than seven points. and scoring four tries.
The simplest way for England to claim the Six Nations is for Ireland to lose to Scotland without a bonus point, leaving them on 16 points. England would then need to beat France and score at least four tries to get that bonus point to move to 17 points and claim the Six Nations.
The complicated way…
However, there are many complex permutations outside of those two events. If Ireland miss out on taking just one bonus point, it means England will need a bonus point win over France, as well as canceling the 83 margin on point difference.
Not likely. If four tries were scored Ireland would have at least 20 points and Scotland, in 141 Tests, have not scored more than 38 against Ireland. Meanwhile, losing a bonus point, by its very nature, means losing by a narrow margin.
If Ireland lose without a bonus point and England beat France without picking up a bonus point themselves, it’s back to points difference. Again, with Ireland on +80 point difference and England on -3 the margins need to be at an all time high to cancel them out.
This means England need a historic win over Les Bleus if Ireland are to clinch the title, if Ireland score one bonus point of any kind. If Ireland’s only loss is a bonus point, England need to beat France by 76 points to claim the title.
In the event that Ireland and England finish on 17 points each and are tied on points difference, the Six Nations would be decided by the total number of tries scored, which has many permutations. If they are level on points, difference between points and tries scored (including penalty try), the Six Nations championship will be shared.
The more complicated way… for Scotland or France to win
Scotland and France can still technically claim victory, but events must conspire for that to happen in a highly unlikely manner. In other words for Scotland or France to claim the championship they must claim a bonus point win, without their opponents scoring a wasted bonus point and cancel Ireland’s 76 point difference (they are both on +4 points difference) without the other. team winning their game.
Got it?
The Six Nations Table
When does the 2024 Six Nations end?
The final will be on Saturday, March 16 – aka ‘Super Saturday’ – and all three games will be on the same day.
Who are the favorites to win the 2024 Six Nations?
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Ireland to win: 1/66
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Scotland to win: 125/1
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France to win: 250/1
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England to win: 25/1
Correct odds on March 13
