by Speculation about Erik ten Hag’s future at Manchester United will not go away, especially after performances such as the listless 2-1 win at Nottingham Forest.
Although he has been in limbo for a while, United have had a dismal record in succession planning in the years since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.
At the City Ground, Ferguson sat alongside Sir Dave Brailsford, the Ineos sporting director who is handling football matters for Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the club’s new minority owner.
Brailsford’s track record – not to mention United’s abject failure in the area of managerial and support appointments over the past decade – suggests there will be no rash move to sack Ten Hag.
That makes sense, as United are likely to be a byword for poor succession planning in the sport for years to come, based on their decisions since Ferguson stepped down.
Indeed, the fate of the four permanent appointments and the four ministerial appointments that preceded Ten Hag’s arrival in the summer of 2022 challenges Edward VIII as the greatest failure of succession in British history.
The only “smooth” transfer from one manager to another did not happen in the summer of 2016 when Louis van Gaal made way for Jose Mourinho, although that was shrouded in controversy and second-guessing, as that the Dutchman had just won the FA Cup for United. .
Ferguson’s former successor, David Moyes, lasted less than a season in the first of four interim replacements for Ryan Giggs. The second interim, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, was not supposed to be a permanent solution when he took over from Mourinho at Christmas 2018. The populist appointment backfired on United’s hierarchy because the club legend was so successful, they thought him standing amid clamor for advancement. to do that.
Just under three years later, Solskjaer finally left to be replaced first by Michael Carrick, who left when it became clear he had no future in coaching at the club, and then Ralf Rangnick.
The unflappable German was popular with supporters and journalists alike for his relentless habit of speaking the truth about the dire situation he found himself in at Old Trafford. Unsurprisingly, he was not so popular with United’s upper management and Ten Hag, with whom he was originally supposed to work in an advisory or director of football role.
In short, United’s approach to appointing or identifying managerial talent, and dealing with the inevitable succession plan that is always required at the end, has been haphazard at best.
Which brings us to the situation of Ten Hag and whether, results should continue to stutter, it is replaced.
Would United reduce the path of the caretaker who has barely excelled in recent times? If so, where would Brailsford and his football advisers turn?
Graham Potter was mentioned out of work as a favorite to join, although the team made their own version of Solskjaer, Frank Lampard, as caretaker, after Chelsea were sacked at the start of April, and it is hardly an upgrade that is management.
The bookies’ list of candidates goes through Julen Lopetegui, who is also out of work, Sporting Lisbon’s Ruben Amorim, Zinedine Zidane, Brighton’s Roberto De Zerbi, even former United coaches Carrick and Kieran McKenna.
But would anyone on that list be able to offer United a short-term boost, either on or off the pitch, if Brailsford made the dramatic decision to ditch Ten Hag?
It is far more likely, as pundit and former United captain Gary Neville suggested on Saturday, that he will remain in place until the summer, giving him five months to prove he can meet the demands of the new owners. .
Those months will also give Brailsford, whose cycling time has been characterized by measured, analytical and thoughtful moves rather than knee-jerk reactions, to put in place personnel who can weigh up the market and decide who she should be. the sixth manager after Fergus.
That is the kind of succession plan that has been sadly missing at Old Trafford for the past decade.
Meanwhile, Ten Hag insists he has the backing of the new owners, a claim which all available evidence suggests is accurate, and is looking to January as the culmination of a particularly un-seasonable season. consistent.
Forest’s exit meant that only in 1921, 1930 and 1972 did United lose more games in a calendar year. But Ten Hag claimed he did not want to use it as an excuse, presenting his current injury list as an excuse for the discrepancy.
“We always have to make an exchange,” Ten Hag said. “I don’t think I talk to the players about it, every time I say, no matter how we line up, we have to win.
“One thing is for sure, every time you have to make a substitution, the routines are not there and the best football is going fast, so you have to communicate in the split second.
“I believe we will improve. With returning players I’m sure this side will be stronger. That’s the job, you have to do a clinical analysis of this, we lack a routine, we have to work on that.”
United have just two games scheduled for January, a month in which a long list of players should return from injury or illness.
Although the return of Lisandro Martínez and Luke Shaw would be huge upgrades to the Ten Hag team at Forest, the first half of the season has cast doubt on how helpful the availability of Mason Mount, Casemiro, Tyrell Malacia, Victor Lindelof, Harry Maguire and Anthony Martial will be.
It’s another big question for Brailsford and his team to face in the new year, as they go up against an underperforming and underperforming squad.
