by Scotland’s climate is changing faster than thought, according to new research.
Research by the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen says that average February temperatures for the year 2050 have already met some predictions.
Researchers say temperatures in some parts of Scotland rose by 2.5C in February – raising the average of 16.9C in the period 1960-1989 to 19.4C over the three decades of 1990-2019.
He says increases in winter rainfall have already exceeded projections for 2050.
The James Hutton Institute carried out the research on behalf of the Scottish Government.
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Researchers have also warned of an increase in water scarcity in the near future, saying it could threaten agriculture, forestry, animal habitats, and hinder efforts to restore the country’s peatlands.
It comes as the UK, including Scotland, faced its hottest June ever and July was recorded as the world’s hottest month.
The global daily sea surface temperature also broke records at the beginning of August.
Dr Mike Rivington, who led Scotland’s climate change and extremes trends research at the institute, said: “We are now in the middle of climate failure: our ecosystems that regulate the climate and enable food production are degraded and in risk of collapse, as we continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions that will encourage further warming.
“There has never been a more important time to understand the scale of the threat and how quickly we need to act.
“The acceleration of climate change and biodiversity loss on a global scale could push us past key tipping points, which if crossed will be irreversible.
“The fact that we are already experiencing some of the predicted changes to Scotland’s climate suggests that climate change is happening faster.
“This will have global impacts, disrupting trade and undermining economic stability while reducing our own ability to adapt, for example, indigenous food and the water and energy and nature-based services we get from today’s ecosystems.”
Cabinet secretary for transport, net zero and direct transition, Mairi McAllan (above), said: “These results show that the climate emergency is not a distant threat – it is with us today.
“Storms have battered Scotland in recent months and 2023 is set to be the hottest year on record.
“Climate change is affecting families, communities and businesses across Scotland.
“That’s why we’re taking action to make Scotland more resilient to a changing climate.”
The research was presented to the Scottish Government in two separate reports entitled Climate Trends and Future Projections in Scotland and Climate Extremes in Scotland.
The reports not only examine past trends, but also look at what Scotland can expect in the future, and are based on a range of 12 climate projections up to 2080.
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It is also expected that the number of consecutive dry days will increase in the drier months, including September.
Dr Rivington said: “Our climate is changing and this has many implications.
“It will increase the stress on species and habitats and how well ecosystems function.
“Without healthy and fully functioning ecosystems, agriculture and other ways nature supports society and the economy is stunted.
“The threats include water shortages reducing agricultural productivity, and the risk of water supplies running out at points in the year.
“Less and warmer water in streams affects river health and water quality due to higher concentrations of pollutants, but increased rainfall may also increase winter flooding.”
He added: “There is early warning and the analysis is very valuable if acted upon.
“Adaptation plans need to consider the complexities of floods and droughts in the same year or even the same season, but we can adjust to better manage these risks.
“For example, we could capture and store more of that excess rain from the winter months for use in the summer; this is not only in terms of engineering and reservoirs but also land management in our water catchments.
“Farms can increase the organic matter in soils, so they store more water during periods of drought. We can also use the information to plan better and to have better surveillance e.g. raise greater awareness of wildfire risk and adjust seasonal fire management guidance.”
McAllan added: “In January, we will publish a draft of our ambitious National Adaptation Plan to address the climate risks facing Scotland.
“We are making Scotland more flood resilient, providing £150 million of extra funding, on top of our annual funding of £42 million, for flood risk management during this Parliament and consulting for a new Flood Resilience Strategy in the new year. .”
