by You could feel bad for Russell Wilson if the mess wasn’t so predictable.
He emerged in Denver in 2022 determined to make a mark. Charting his own course away from the pesky Seattle Seahawks and Pete Carroll. To topple Patrick Mahomes at the top of the AFC West. To take plural Super Bowl titles. To win on his own terms and cement himself as a future Hall of Famer. He pushed through a trade to the Broncos so he could get more of everything. More offense control. More control over the building, including a sparkling new office and its own training staff. More money. And, most importantly, more credit.
The Broncos obliged, giving Wilson a $243m contract before playing down the team. Two years later, the Broncos are throwing away the experience before the contract extension even begins. Put it this way: the Broncos are paying Wilson more money than any team in NFL history to leave.
Related: Broncos take $85m hit to end Russell Wilson’s Denver career early
All in all, it’s one of the worst trades the league has seen. At every step, Denver’s quarterback, coaches and ownership are like Sideshow Bob stepping on rakes. The final accounting is brutal:
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$124m guaranteed
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11 wins from 30 starts
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13 wins by 10 or more points
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Zero playoff appearances
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Two first-round picks, two second-round picks and three players traded away
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Multiple shots of frustrated coaches and teammates
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Wilson’s faults are exposed
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An organization further away from controversy today than when Wilson walked through the door
The damage is not done. The NFLPA is continuing to investigate the Broncos’ handling of Wilson’s benching last season.
It’s not about any one player being the player signed in one of the ‘worst’ trades ever. It’s about the opportunity cost of putting so many resources into a massive failure. The Broncos are limited and lack a draft pick. They spent cash in last year’s free agent pool to try to compete in 2023. Now they’re stuck in the mud, trying to challenge in a division that includes Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs, spirited Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers renewed. , without an entire cache of draft picks, cap room, or replacement at quarterback. By having such a high cap for Wilson, the Broncos have painted themselves into the NFL’s average dead zone.
It’s a familiar end for one of the best quarterbacks of the mid-2010s.
You didn’t have to be a Columbo to figure out that the Sean Payton-Wilson partnership ended this way either. Payton is a firebrand – a dominant dominant coach. As the orchestrator of some of the best offenses in the league, Payton is a mentor. You line up and run the damn plays, just like Payton designed and called them. Wilson was at his best as a free agent, despite visions of him morphing into a Drew Brees-lite type. He is a free spirit at quarterback, betting on himself to destroy any structural concerns when the ball is collected. As his athleticism has declined, so has his ability to turn bad plays into good ones. Under the “incompetent” Nathaniel Hackett and then Payton, he was unable or unwilling to change his style.
By the midpoint of its first season, the Hackett-Wilson era was more of a comedy skit than a functional football team. The Broncos gave Payton a water contract under the pretense that he could ‘fix’ Wilson. But nothing was fixed; Wilson is a shadow of his former self.
Still, few things have been more discouraging in recent years than watching Wilson go through games, which coaches and teammates alike have determined have been blamed on organizational dysfunction by his critics. It’s open season on those who think the Seahawks’ near-dynamic run was built on the back of their smothering defense.
The reality is that those Seahawks teams were a collective effort, the ideal marriage of a high-level coach, defense and quarterback. In Denver, Wilson was left to his own devices: he was given everything he asked for but in the end he was unable to play the part he had to play. He is not a passer in the mold of Tom Brady, Mahomes or Brees. He was – and is – a cog in an offensive machine, not a focal point.
Payton spent much of last season trying to hide his quarterback. It was, in some ways, effective. Wilson finished 13th among eligible quarterbacks in last season’s RBSDM composite, which measures the value of a play and how much the quarterback can be considered responsible for the value. That was one spot below rookie sensation CJ Stroud and comfortably ahead of the likes of Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray. Wilson jumped to eighth in RBSDM on third downs.
The going rate for the league’s 13th best quarterback is $45m a year. A team will be able to snag Wilson for part of next season on a one-year rental. The team can sign Wilson to a one-year, $1.2m contract with the Broncos already on the fence for $38m next season. And Wilson has no incentive to sign a contract that would help offset the contract he signed with Denver. His reputation has taken a toll, but someone will win in 2024 if Wilson is brought in on the free trade.
Wilson’s release will end one of the darkest chapters in recent league history. The trade will now take its place on the top shelf of worst deals.
Other shocking trades in modern NFL history
Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns
Facing Wilson and the Broncos for the worst trade in recent memory. The Browns traded more picks for Watson and gave him more guaranteed money. And, somehow, Watson has been worse on the field than Wilson during that period. Unlike Wilson, he has a very good team around him and it’s time to change things, but consider that the Browns sold their soul to land Watson and this deal lives in a series of its own own.
Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings
In 1989, Jimmy Johnson traded Walker to the Vikings for a bevy of picks and players that would be the foundation of the Cowboys family. It was called the Great Trade Robbery. Dallas acquired three picks in the first round, three picks in the second round, a third round and a sixth round from Minnesota. Walker lasted just two full seasons with the Vikings, falling short of 1,000 yards in each season.
The Chicago Bears trade for Mitch Trubisky
We are in opportunity cost territory again. In 2017, the Bears traded first-, third- and fourth-round picks to jump up one spot in the draft to select Mitch Trubisky out of North Carolina at No. 2 in total. A few spots behind Trubisky? Some guy called Patrick Mahomes.
Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts
The Browns selected Richardson with the No. 1 overall pick. 3 from Alabama. Eighteen months later, they dealt him for a first round pick to the Colts. Richardson lacked the speed and vision to thrive in the NFL. He ended up playing a season and a half in Indy before moving on to the Colts. He will not play another down in the league.
Ricky Williams to the New Orleans Saints
Back when running backs were still the faces of NFL franchises, the New Orleans Saints were eager to land a high-end cornerback of their own. Mike Ditka traded eight picks to Washington in 1999, including two first rounders, to jump up in the draft to select Ricky Williams. The only problem: by handling so many assets Ditka stripped his team of any supporting talent. Williams played just three seasons in New Orleans before catching fire with the Dolphins, rushing for 1,853 yards and 16 touchdowns in his first season in Miami.
Wes Welker to the New England Patriots
After playing three seasons in Miami as a special teams whiz, the Dolphins traded Welker to the AFC East rivals Patriots for only a second and seventh-round pick. It came back to haunt the Dolphins: Welker went on to form an immediate winning connection with Tom Brady, becoming the prototype for a modern type of slot receiver. He made five Pro Bowls and became a Hall of Famer on the edge.
Randy Moss to the New England Patriots
The Patriots weren’t done with the Welker deal. They also nabbed Randy Moss from the Raiders for a fourth-round pick in 2007. Moss was on an expensive deal in Oakland and failed to live up to his early promise in Minnesota. They sent him to New England where he went on to put together one of the greatest runs in league history, including as the chief architect of the Patriots’ record-breaking 2007 offense.
