by The wealthy Persian Gulf petrostate has big plans for the future, hoping to attract more tourists and investors, host marquee sporting events, build new cities and diversify their economies away from oil.
But they face a major threat they can’t easily buy their way out of: extreme and sometimes deadly heat that roasts their countries every summer, which climate change is expected to exacerbate in the coming years.
Sweltering temperatures drive energy demand, wear down infrastructure, put workers at risk and make simple outdoor activities not only unpleasant, but potentially dangerous. Each will impose a significant long-term toll on the Gulf countries’ massive ambitions, experts say.
Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times
“We think we want to go bigger and bigger, but we don’t think about the implications of climate change in the future,” said Aisha Al-Sarihi, a research fellow from Oman at the Middle East Institute at the University of Singapore. . . “If we keep expanding and expanding, it means we need more energy, more water and more electricity, especially for cooling. But there are limits, and we see those limits today.”
The threat of heat became very clear this week when Saudi Arabia announced that more than 1,300 people had died during the annual hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, including at least 11 Americans. Saudi officials said most of those lost had made the trip without permits that would have given them access to heat protection, leaving them vulnerable to temperatures that sometimes exceeded 120 degrees.
The deaths have raised questions about Saudi Arabia’s management of the event, which draws more than 1.8 million Muslims to the holy city of Mecca.
The kingdom and other countries across the Gulf are pouring huge amounts of their oil wealth into efforts to boost their economies and move up the list of popular global destinations.
Saudi Arabia is building super-tall resorts on the Red Sea coast and a futuristic city called Neom in its northwest desert. Qatar hosted the men’s soccer World Cup last year and brought in other international sporting events and trade shows. The United Arab Emirates put on a glittering World Expo, and its business-friendly policies helped it become a playground for the hyper-sovereign.
But these countries face significant environmental challenges.
Summers have long been unusually hot, but scientists say climate change is already making the season longer and hotter – a trend expected to accelerate in coming years. Some forecasts warn of week-long heat waves with temperatures of up to 132 degrees in the second half of this century. High temperatures can endanger human life.
The Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, are among the most water-stressed countries in the world, meaning that available water can barely keep up with demand. This requires them to import water or extract the salt from seawater, a costly and energy-intensive process.
Many Gulf countries have announced environmental initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions, greening large cities and developing climate-friendly technologies. They have also invested heavily in efforts to mitigate the dangers of extreme heat – often with measures that other Middle Eastern countries grappling with high temperatures, such as Egypt, Yemen and Iraq, cannot afford. .
But money is not always enough.
This month, sudden power outages hit parts of Kuwait, a major oil exporter. In some areas, traffic lights went out, and people got stuck in elevators as the temperature rose to 125 degrees.
Authorities blamed the growing demand for energy which overwhelmed the power stations. To reduce the burden, the government has imposed blackouts during the hottest hours of the day, forcing people to seek other air-conditioned spaces.
The summer heat severely restricts life in Kuwait, changing when people work and sleep and keeping those who can afford it in air-conditioned environments.
Fatima Al Sarraf, a family doctor in Kuwait City, said she used to take long runs in the winter but was forced to run on an indoor treadmill or go to the center in the summer to get her daily steps.
“I don’t go out at all,” said Al Sarraf, 27.
She is afraid for the future.
“If the temperature continues to rise, especially in the summer periods, Kuwait is expected to be uninhabitable,” she said. “This change will certainly affect future generations.”
Other countries seem to be managing the heat better, although they still face challenges.
Qatar has benefited from wealth generated from its status as one of the world’s top exporters of liquefied natural gas to cool outdoor areas, even during the hottest times of the day. The stadiums he built for the 2023 World Cup were equipped with outdoor air conditioning so they could be used all year round. One city park in the capital, Doha, has an existing track of air conditioning, and an outdoor cooling system was recently unveiled in a popular outdoor market.
“There’s a cooling ecosystem,” said Neeshad Shafi, a Qatar-based non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute. “Everything has to be cooled. Cooler parks, cooler gardens, cooler shopping areas, cooler souks are popping up every day.”
But those technologies are expensive – and even more so to deploy over large areas.
“You can’t cool everything in a country,” Shafi said.
Nor are the protections offered by such technologies available to the most vulnerable, including the millions of migrant workers who do everything from construction work to gardening in the Gulf. Many people have no choice but to work outside, and studies have shown that working in extreme heat increases accidents and can cause damage to the body.
To protect outdoor workers, Qatar and other Gulf States have banned most outdoor work during the hottest parts of the summer days. This year, Kuwait extended those protections to motorcycle delivery drivers, who were roasting inside their helmets on sweltering asphalt.
But nighttime temperatures are also fluctuating, and as their countries get hotter, governments may have to extend work bans or take additional measures.
“These countries are moving fast, but the temperature is moving faster than them,” Shafi said.
Rising temperatures could hamper Saudi Arabia’s dramatic development plans. Will tourists flock to new luxury resorts when it’s too hot to comfortably swim in the Red Sea? Will enough people want to move to the capital, Riyadh, to double its population, when daytime temperatures already regularly exceed 100 degrees for much of the year?
And as the kingdom grows, it will become even more difficult to keep the hajj safe.
The pilgrimage and its associated rituals involve spending many hours outdoors and walking long distances. As the timing of the hajj is based on the lunar calendar, it gradually moves back during the year and cannot be rescheduled.
The Saudi government has invested billions of dollars to protect pilgrims, providing elaborate sunshades, misting fans and air-conditioned shelters to offer relief from the heat.
But scientists warn that temperatures will be even higher the next time the hajj takes place in the summer, starting in the mid-2040s. One recent study warned that future pilgrims would be exposed to heat that would exceed a “threshold of extreme danger” unless “aggressive adaptation measures” are taken.
Tariq Al-Olaimy, managing director of 3BL Associates, a sustainable development consultancy in Bahrain, said he considered this year’s pilgrimage deaths a “wake-up call” because they showed the success of heat protections and the risks for people without them.
“The lesson of hajj is that if this is not a priority for the entire population, there will be fatal consequences,” he said. “But there is also the lesson that when there is proper and adequate heat management, we can not only thrive, but survive.”
c.2024 The New York Times Company
