by The cover of Time magazine 2019 showed four astronauts running towards the Moon. In the photo alongside the headline “The Next Space Race”, one of the astronauts was wearing an American flag, one was a Chinese flag and the other two belonged to billionaire space companies: Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff’s Blue Origin Bezos.
Until recently, the United States and SpaceX seemed poised to win this race to return to the Moon with NASA’s Artemis program. But some obstacles called that into question. And Blue Origin, China and other countries and companies are continuing their own lunar efforts.
On 9 January 2024, NASA announced that it was delaying the Artemis 2 mission, the first crewed flight of the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion capsule – the vehicles built to return astronauts to deep space . The flight would slip from late 2024 to no earlier than September 2025. This was due to some safety issues that need to be fixed on Orion.
As a result, Artemis 3, which is supposed to be the first crewed lunar landing since 1972, will take place no earlier than September 2026. Artemis 3 is to use SpaceX’s Starship orbiter as the lander for two a team member. This mission is set to put the first woman and the first person of color on the surface of the moon.
A non-American team member could also walk on the Moon by 2030, highlighting the fact that NASA was involved with international partners in the Artemis venture. To date, only 12 people have set foot on the Moon. They were all men and they were all American.
However, the Starship orbiter has experience problems, which are crucial to these aims. A second test launch for the rocket-like orbiter atop its massive booster rocket was scrapped back in November 2023, an impressive eight minutes and six seconds after liftoff.
It must be ready to go by 2026. But, before that, SpaceX will have to demonstrate that it can refuel in orbit and then land an unmanned Starship on the Moon.
At the same time, however, Blue Origin is also working on a lander, called Blue Moon. Blue Moon is to be used as the lunar landing craft for the Artemis 5 and 6 missions in 2029 and 2030.
Time will tell which lander may be ready for use first. But competition is always a good motivator, and may accelerate achievements.
Commercial companies supporting NASA in the Artemis program will have to pay close attention to what to do and when. Crew members’ lives are at risk here, so missions must proceed in a safe and sustainable manner.
Like Apollo, NASA wants to use the program to inspire the next generation of scientists, engineers and mathematicians. Baby boomers like myself are very proud to be “Apollo kids” whose remarkable achievements inspired the study of scientific subjects – especially the first steps of life, observed through black and white televisions in July 1969 .
International competition
China is also preparing itself, along with several other countries including Russia, to develop a lunar base for humans, called the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Beijing and its partners will also include players from the private sector and governmental and non-governmental organizations, and an organizational scheme will be the first.
The Chinese program’s first human missions to the lunar surface are expected by 2030. Among the sites they want to land on is the moon’s south pole. NASA also wants to land here, but Beijing has little choice in overlapping the locations chosen for Artemis.
The south pole is a target of both the USA and China because countries are trying to remove the water ice that is hidden in the craters there. This water could be used as life support at lunar bases and to make rocket fuel, which would help reduce the cost of space exploration.
Space programs are never on time, and are usually postponed. Space agencies are more cautious today, even more than ever, because there are not many tragedies that happened in the past forcing them to think very carefully before sending people into space.
Staff safety is mandatory, and must always be the first priority. So, if this is why we have to wait a little longer before a few people, after many years, walk on the Moon again, I’m willing to wait for it.
Getting to space has never been easy, as several uncrewed missions to the Moon in the past 12 months – both governmental and commercial – have shown. But perhaps it is better that we fail now as we prepare for a new phase of human history.
The Moon will soon experience humans on its surface again, working and living regularly. But when people go back there, this time it will stay.
This article from The Conversation is republished under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Simonetta Di Pippo does not work for any company or organization that would benefit from this article, does not consult with, shares in or is funded by any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has not disclosed six relevant connections beyond their academic appointment.
