by Britain’s top polling guru has said there will be “no consolation” for Rishi Sunak as Reform UK pushed the Tories into third place in a string of council seats in a brutal series of local elections.
Despite finishing narrowly ahead of right-wing challenger Nigel Farage’s party in the Blackpool South by-election, which Labor won comfortably, the Conservatives were beaten by Reform in 16 of the 25 seats up for grabs on Sunderland City Council.
Alarm bells will be ringing in No. 10 Downing Street as the second day of the council count and mayoral results will begin. after a disastrous night of results for the Conservatives in local elections across the UK.
Professor Sir John Curtice said it “doesn’t look very good for the Conservatives”.
Britain’s top polling guru said the BBC: “We’re going to end up with the big headline being that the Conservatives are in at least as big a hole as they were 12 months ago.
“These results do not seem to bring much comfort to 10 Downing Street.”
And pollster Luke Tryl, UK director at More In Common, said the Conservatives’ victory over Reform “pales in comparison” to the scale of the swing towards Labour.
He told The Independent: “It will be psychologically important for Tory MPs because the Tories managed to come 2nd in Blackpool South, even if by the narrowest of margins.
“But the truth that will worry the Tories most is that Labor is winning almost 60 per cent of the vote, around 25 points higher than the Tory and Reform vote combined, and after their third swing highest achieved by the Conservatives recently.
“At that level of Labor performance, the impact of the Reform is comparatively small.”
Mr Sunak has been repeatedly warned that Reform could take ten seats from the Conservatives in this year’s general election.
And Mr Farage is weighing a return to frontline politics with the party, a move that could add to the scale of defeat facing the Conservatives. Tory candidate David Jones finished just 117 votes ahead of Reform’s Mark Butcher in Blackpool South with 3,218.
Labor won the red wall seat comfortably in a major blow to Mr Sunak’s hopes of holding together the electoral coalition formed by Boris Johnson in 2019, with Chris Webb getting 10,825 votes.
The result is the third biggest swing towards Labor in by-election history, representing a 26 per cent swing from the 2019 general election. Party sources said it was “significantly more” than the national swing of 12.5 per cent. needed to win a majority in the next general election.
Sir Keir Starmer said the “seismic” victory was the “most important result” of the local elections. The Labor leader said: “This is the only contest where voters have had the opportunity to send a direct message to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, and that message is an overwhelming vote for change.”
He added: “The swing towards the Labor Party in Blackpool South is truly historic and shows that we are firmly back in the service of working people.”
Of the 78 years Blackpool South has been a constituency, it has been held by a Conservative MP for 57.
Labor also celebrated a string of “historic” council gains overnight, winning Hartlepool, Thurrock and Rushmoor.
Three years ago Labor lost the Hartlepool parliamentary by-election to the Conservatives – an event which led Sir Keir Starmer to consider resigning as party leader.
A party spokesman said: “Winning back Hartlepool council after the disappointing results we saw here in 2021… gains here show the party is on track to win a general election.”
Speaking after his victory in Blackpool South, Mr Webb said: “People don’t trust the Conservatives anymore. Prime Minister: do the sensible thing, admit you’ve failed and call a general election.”
Mr Benton won the seat, which had been held by Labor since 1997, for the Tories under Boris Johnson in 2019. He only had a narrow majority of 3,690.
In February, Mr Benton was suspended from the House of Commons for 35 days after he was found to have breached the rules.
The House of Commons standards committee found the MP suggested he was “tainted” and “for sale” after he was secretly filmed saying he could table parliamentary questions and “behind the scenes” information. provided for up to £4,000 per month. .
Mr Benton was willing to release market-sensitive information to an investment fund and ask parliamentary questions on its behalf, in breach of parliamentary lobbying rules, an undercover investigation for The Times found.
He was caught on camera telling undercover reporters posing as investors that he was willing to take steps that would break Parliament’s lobbying rules.
At a meeting in March 2023, Mr Benton described how he could support a bogus investment fund, which he believed had been set up by an Indian businessman who wanted to make investments in the UK betting and gaming sector, by trying to reduce the proposed gambling reforms.
Mr Benton also offered a “guarantee” to provide the business with a copy of an upcoming gaming white paper at least two days before publication, potentially benefiting from market-sensitive information.
He also said he could put down written parliamentary questions and said he had done them for a company before.
Mr Benton said he could “listen directly to the minister who will actually make those decisions” and talk to them outside the MPs’ voting lobby.
The MP agreed to a fee suggested by the reporters in the range of £2,000 to £4,000 per month for two working days.
