by The NASA-led Artemis-3 mission will place the first human boots on the lunar surface since Apollo 17’s Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface in December 1972.
The goal of the Artemis program is to establish a permanent human presence on Earth’s natural satellite and an economy based around the Moon. Artemis-3 is scheduled for no earlier than September 2026. However, further delays are likely and there are still many technical challenges to overcome. People may wonder if it is going to happen at all.
I am convinced that, unlike the Apollo program, which would be unaffordable in today’s climate, the current lunar effort will pay off in terms of finance and exploration. Voyages from the Moon to other destinations such as Mars could be facilitated by removing water ice from craters at the moon’s south pole, which would reduce the cost of space exploration.
That’s why the space industry seems to be steadily thriving on the Moon as a destination right now – countries can’t afford to miss this boat. The space sector can boost entire economies.
In the 1960s, the space race was largely driven by Cold War-era political and military muscle flexing. Some of that is still there as well as the rush for resources. After 1972, human spaceflight became limited to low Earth orbit as the US transitioned from the Apollo spacecraft to the space shuttle. But in the 2000s, the United States announced that it would be building new space vehicles to ferry astronauts to deep space destinations like the Moon.
Private pioneers
That same decade, the US also made a strategic decision to use the ingenuity and cost-effectiveness of young companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin. Owned by some of the world’s richest entrepreneurs – Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, respectively – they are outwardly marked by passion and risk-taking, but they are built on solid business models.
SpaceX’s massive Starship vehicle has been contracted by NASA to ferry Artemis astronauts between the proposed Gateway station in lunar orbit and the lunar surface. Starships were destroyed on each of their first three test flights. However, the speed at which problems are resolved is remarkable and, a year later, in the fourth integrated test flight of Starship both the upper stage and the Super Heavy rocket made soft landings.
This reaffirms SpaceX’s ability to push the boundaries of innovation and provide reliable, affordable services. It is famous for its landing of direct return launch vehicles – essential for human missions to and from the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. However, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has a contract to land the Artemis-5 crew on the Moon later in the decade, with its own lander. NASA clearly doesn’t want to put all its eggs in one basket.
National and commercial ambitions
Recent attempts to land on the Moon have highlighted the fine line between success and failure. A fuel leak cut short a mission of the private company Astrobotic in January 2024. It was part of a NASA program aimed at starting private transportation services to the Moon.
A thruster malfunction caused the crash of Russia’s Luna 25 while attempting the first landing near the south side of the moon in August 2023. This happened as Russia seems to be losing its front seat in scientific space activity and commercial. A few days later, India’s Chandrayaan 3 lander successfully landed, making them the fourth nation to make a soft landing on the Moon.
Japan followed suit in January 2024 when its narrow mission landed. Shortly thereafter, Houston-based Intuitive Machines became the first private company to make a soft (if spectacular) landing on the Moon. The Odysseus lander confirmed NASA’s belief in the participation of private enterprise as the future for continued lunar exploration.
Established aerospace companies such as Boeing are heavily involved with Artemis. But it seems it’s only a matter of time until relatively new kids on the block are able to do it on their own, without the burden of space agency bureaucracy and the whims of Congressional approval.
China enters the fray
There are two other relevant players in the Moon race. The China National Space Administration’s (CNSA) human space program is catching up fast. Operating its own space station, Tiangong, it has replaced Russia as NASA’s main competitor.
China aims to put boots on the lunar soil by 2030 and build a base called the International Lunar Research Station. They will partner with Russia and various countries with little or no previous space experience, such as South Africa and Egypt. CNSA’s lunar program is flawless, with the unmanned Chang’e 6 spacecraft making a soft landing on June 1, 2024. Its purpose is to bring back soil and rock samples from the far side of the Moon.
The other player is the US Department of Defense. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and its High-Efficiency Lunar Orbiter Design and Advanced Research Projects Agency program are focused on developing the ability to build objects in space. Its LunA-10 Lunar Architecture study, to be carried out over ten years, aims to develop infrastructure for the lunar economy such as transport, wireless power generation and a communication grid.
But with this intensive effort, come ethical questions and the need for enforceable laws and regulations. Is it right to mine the moon? Who owns the land then?
We must also think about whether the water at the south pole of the moon should be drunk until there is nothing left. Dating back to 1967, the UN Outer Space Treaty stipulates peaceful activity in space and on other celestial bodies. But these are non-binding principles that have little to say about economic activity. Nor do the US Artemis Agreements, which have been signed by 42 countries as of May 2024. These do not include China and Russia.
It is almost certain that two lunar bases will be in place by the mid-2030s. Private and state-owned companies will exploit their resources, produce products, generate energy and offer stays for tourists.
All this comes with technological innovation that could provide solutions to the Earth. The race to the Moon offers opportunities for peaceful international cooperation and shared economic prosperity. It will also inspire a new generation of engineers and entrepreneurs. For better or for worse, it will be a milestone in the evolution of our species and bring Mars within reach as our next destination.
This article from The Conversation is republished under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Jacco van Loon does not work for any company or organization that would benefit from this article, does not consult with, shares in or is funded by any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has not disclosed six relevant connections beyond their academic appointment.
