by Welcome back to the Guardian’s MLS Power Rankings, where I have beef with your specific team and your specific team individually. I hired Drake Callender to save me from any dangerous things that readers who are angry at these ratings will throw my way. Hey, it’s good enough for Inter Miami, it’s good enough for me.
Now, as a reminder, these are not your standard run of the mill power ratings. We’re still ranking teams from worst to first. But along with the rankings, we’re taking a deep dive into a handful of teams from around the league who are doing some really interesting things.
Austin, we have a problem
29) San Jose earthquakes
28) Chicago Fire
27) Kansas City Sports
26) New England Revolution
25) Nashville SC
24) Austin FC
Want to know who is the worst team in the Western Conference in 2024, according to FBref’s expected goal differential metric? Hint: it’s not the San Jose Earthquakes, who have wrapped up the entire Wooden Spoon. It’s not Sporting Kansas City, either. It’s Austin FC. Look, I know you didn’t want the clues because this part is obviously about Austin based on “Austin FC” being written in bold above, but let me have this, okay?
Austin is giving up -0.54 xGD per 90 minutes, which means they are conceding more than half an expected goal more than they create. All. Alone. Game.
One of the only reasons they still exist technically alive in the playoff race – and one of the reasons they are in a better place in these rankings than the Quakes and SKC is because of Brad Stuver’s shot-stopping. Outside of Stuver, who is saving nearly a quarter of a goal more than expected per 90 based on FBref data, this year has been brutal for Austin. Ask the star Sebastián Driussi for free.
With sporting director Rodolfo Borrell about to enter his second full season, there is no shortage of big decisions to make. Austin FC needs a talented striker, they need a midfielder, and their spine is one of the weakest in MLS. Then there’s the question of Josh Wolff’s job, a job that fans are always looking for. The to-do list is long. The time is short. Few members of the front office have as many high-profile calls to make this summer as Borrell.
Too little, too late
23) FC Dallas
22) City of St. Louis
21) Toronto FC
20) Atlanta United
19) United DC
18) CF Montreal
St. Louis City’s fall from grace was quick, if not really all that graceful. They went from the best team in the West last year to one of the first teams eliminated from postseason contention this year.
What caused the fall?
St. Louis received some incredibly lucky bounces in their expansion season that, not surprisingly, did not repeat themselves in 2024. Roman Bürki was excellent in goal in 2023, but this year he retired from his be excellent. His high-pressure style may have surprised some teams, but the book is out at this point.
Related: The great thing about Miami Messi? They are just as good without it
But the simplest explanation for St. Louis City’s fall down the standings is: they were shaky when it came time to retool in the offseason. When Nicholas Gioacchini and Jared Stroud left the club, 21 goal contributions left behind. St. Louis did not replace either player in the winter. No wonder they struggled.
The good news is that a simple explanation for their fall leads to an equally simple way to trigger a possible rise in 2025. Get more talent. In fact, sporting director Lutz Pfannenstiel has already done a solid job of that. St. Louis City was one of MLS’ most active teams in the summer transfer window, signing St. Pauli’s Marcel Hartel and Hannover’s Cedric Teuchert to finally bolster their attack. Teuchert, in particular, was excellent. According to FBref, he ranks in the 88th percentile in expected non-penalty goals as well as expected assisted goals per 90 minutes among his position mates in MLS.
With the long overdue replacements stepping up to the plate, St Louis have three wins, two draws, and two losses since the summer window closed in August. A lack of true stars limits their cap space heading into 2025, but there are reasons to believe this squad will be up a notch or two by the time March rolls around.
Playing the blame game
17) Philadelphia Union
16) Portland Timbers
15) New York Red Bulls
14) Charlotte FC
13) Colorado Rapids
12) United Minnesota
New York Red Bulls fans have had hit after hit over the last week or so. Sure, they dispatched a bad Toronto FC team on Wednesday night. But before that, they watched as their team lost the Hudson River Derby on Saturday in disastrous fashion. Then they had to sit back and watch comments from Oliver Mintzlaff, a high-ranking Red Bull executive, pour in from an interview with Kicker. As quoted by renowned Bundesliga broadcaster Derek Rae, Mintzlaff had this to say about MLS (and, for that matter, his own team): “MLS is developing but it’s developing much too slowly and it is still far away from the standard we envision for a. country like the United States of America.”
Mintzlaff’s point is that there is plenty of room for MLS to grow. MLS needs more talent if it wants to catch enough eyeballs to become one of the best leagues in the world. But is this criticism to come from Mintzlaff, who sits on the very powerful MLS sports and competition committee and is tied to a club that failed to fill out all three of the Designated Players in the year? The whole thing has a lot we are all trying to find the man who did this energy.
New York is the largest media market in the United States. The New York Red Bulls are one of three founding MLS teams that have never won the MLS Cup. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2018. They haven’t finished higher than fourth in the East since that same year.
If Mintzlaff wants to change, even to help the New York branch of Red Bull produce better players for the Leipzig branch, he might want to look inside the house first.
Should we believe in Orlando?
11) Vancouver White Caps
10) Dynamo Houston
9) City of Orlando
8) New York City FC
7) Real Salt Lake
6) Seattle Sounders
I’d be lying if I said I trusted Orlando City to be this high in the rankings.
Sure, they’re fourth in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they’ve won 10 of their last 14 games. But you know what? They have beaten just two teams all season that are currently above the perimeter – Toronto FC, who sit ninth in the East and Charlotte FC, who sit seventh in the East. You will excuse me, then, for being skeptical about Óscar Pareja’s team. It’s a very real world where Orlando faces a competent team in the first round of the playoffs and is sent packing after two quick losses in a three game series.
And yet, the reason they are within the top 10 rankings is because there is something very beautiful about the City of Orlando. It’s not that they play expansive, aesthetic soccer – they just don’t. Not that they create many chances in the final third – not really. No, the beauty of this team is its versatility.
Pareja wants this team to be a tactical chameleon, where they can use the ball and work through their attacking players ready against weaker teams and play against the ball and hit the break against stronger teams . For example, Orlando had 53% possession against Philadelphia on Wednesday. against Columbus last month? They only had 41% of the ball. Orlando City will ebb and flow based on the situation, and it’s great to watch them drift from one aspect of their identity to another.
Is being average-to-good at two things rather than great at one enough in the postseason? We will find out soon.
Supporters’ Shield Winners
5) FC Cincinnati
4) LAFC
3) LA Galaxy
2) Team Columbus
1) Between Miami
The opener came from Lionel Messi, who went on to score a brace before the half-time whistle blew. Luis Suárez then dealt the Columbus team a death blow just minutes after half-time.
On Wednesday night, Inter Miami completed their regular season sweep of Wilfried Nancy’s team, claimed the top spot in the Eastern Conference, and won the Supporters’ Shield as MLS’ best regular season team this year. If they win their last two games, Miami will also take the MLS points record.
While Messi, Suárez and other Barcelona boys highlighted Miami’s important victory (and highlighted this unique season for the team in pink), Inter Miami’s regular season success would not have been possible without the number of key players. Against the team, it was goalkeeper Drake Callender who came up big, saving a potentially game-tying penalty from Cucho Hernandez in the 84th minute.
Without Callender’s ability to bail out his fellow defense-selective players, Inter Miami would not have a hand on the Shield. The same goes for Julian Gressel’s full-effort play on the right. Or for Ian Fray emerging again at centre-back. Or for rookie Yannick Bright’s productive 1,300 minutes at midfield.
Inter Miami’s 2024 season will be remembered for its star power – as it should be. Never before have we seen an MLS team with this many big names. It is possible, and perhaps even likely, that we will never see a player of Messi’s caliber in MLS again. They have made history. But that history wouldn’t have been possible without players like Callender providing the platform for his great teammates to succeed.
Bring the points record and bring the playoffs.
