by Rishi Sunak is tipped to become the first ever sitting prime minister to lose his seat in a general election.
The Conservatives are on track to fall to just 53 seats, with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out, a major poll for the Telegraph has revealed.
The Liberal Democrats are on course to be just behind the Tories by 50 MPs, according to Savanta polling analysis and Calculus Elections, leaving them a long way from being the official opposition.
Labor is predicted to have 516 seats and an estimated majority of 382 in the House of Commons – double what Sir Tony Blair won in 1997 – when Sir Keir Starmer becomes prime minister.
Meanwhile, despite rising in the polls, he is predicted to win no seats. For Nigel Farage, the recently returned Reform leader, it would mean an eighth consecutive victory as a parliamentary candidate.
The SNP is predicted to fall, according to the polls, to just eight MPs, down from 48 in 2019, with Labor once again the dominant party in Scotland, as it was under Sir Tony.
The poll suggests Tory warnings of a “super majority” for Labor are accurate. It also sets out the scale of voters’ efforts with the Conservatives, and suggests an uncertain road for the party in the coming years.
This is the first poll of its kind to predict Labor winning more than 500 seats. No other poll has predicted the Tories winning so many seats.
The Savanta poll for the Telegraph consulted around 18,000 people between June 7 and June 18, taking views during the final two weeks of the election campaign.
The analysis comes from a method called Multilevel Regression and Poststratification, or MRP, which allows pollsters to take survey results and predict results in individual seats.
Simply put, it involves talking to far more people than a typical poll – around 10 times more – and drilling down into the demographics of both respondents and constituencies.
More than 100 seats are predicted to be won by such narrow margins that the pollster believes they will remain up. A small improvement in the Tory vote share could have a significant impact on their seat total.
But it is clear from the results, published with just two weeks to go before the election, that the Tories are facing a historic defeat from a frustrated electorate.
In recent weeks, other poll analysts have seen significant declines, sometimes below 100 seats. But none of them managed to perform this badly.
The explanation, according to Savanta comes, in charge Labor was found to be more than Conservative, which was 21 percentage points – slightly higher than other recent MRP polls.
Savanta’s estimated voting intention is Labor on 44 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent, Reform on 13 per cent, the Lib Dems on 12 per cent, the Greens on four per cent, the SNP on three per cent and Plaid Cymru for one. percent.
Not only are they predicted to lose scores of seats to Labour, but the Tories will lose such a low share of the vote across the country, but they will also lose to the Lib Dems in many others.
Only 53 MPs would be the worst result for the Conservatives in modern history. It would be less than a third of the 165 they got when New Labor was swept into power in 1997.
The lowest number of seats for the modern Conservative Party was 131 in 1906. The worst result for the Conservative predecessors, the Tories, came in 1754, when they won 106.
It is also a significant drop from 2019 when the Tories won 365 MPs under Boris Johnson. It would mean the party would retain only 15 percent of its seats for 2019.
Mr Sunak is predicted to lose his Richmond seat to Labour, although this race is among those Savanta says is still in the balance because of the close margins.
If that happened, it would be a historic moment. No prime minister has ever lost his seat in a general election, according to the Government Institute.
Arthur Balfour is the only prime minister who has come close. He resigned as prime minister in December 1905 and was officially the leader of the opposition when he lost his seat in the election at the beginning of 1906.
The predicted result would also have a big impact on who could succeed Mr Sunak as Tory leader, as many of those who are due to run next month are predicted to lose they their seats.
Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the Commons, Grant Shapps, the Defense Secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister, lose their seats on this prediction.
So were Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, and James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, meaning that three of the four major state-holding offices would be swept out. The fourth, Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, is not an MP.
The reform would – according to Savanta’s analysis – not take away any seats, but given the rapid changes in the party’s profile recently, it could involve an additional element of doubt.
Mr Farage had only been Reform leader for a few days before this poll began, with an increase in his vote seen over the past two weeks. His influence in the seat of Clacton, where he stands, is also difficult to predict with polling across the country.
Reform’s polling increase means that recently Savanta has started to be placed among the list of political parties offered in advance as a choice for respondents, rather than only after the “other” choice.
Plaid Cymru would have four seats. The Greens would get no seats. Seat projections are not made for Northern Ireland, given the polling challenges due to party differences there.
Two more MRP poll analyzes were published on Wednesday. YouGov put the Tories on 108 MPs and More in Common on 155, highlighting how small changes in vote share can have a significant impact. More in Common had Labor 16 points ahead of the Tories, compared to Savanta’s 21.
