by The Earth’s string of 13 straight months with a new average heat record came to an end last July when the natural El Nino climate pattern took hold, the European climate agency Copernicus announced on Wednesday.
But July 2024’s average heat did not exceed that of July a year ago, and scientists said the end of the hot streak doesn’t change anything about the threat of climate change.
“The overall context has not changed,” Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess said in a statement. “Our climate is still warming.”
Man-made climate change drives extreme weather events that are wreaking havoc across the globe, with some examples just in the last few weeks. In Cape Town, South Africa, thousands were displaced by heavy rain, gale force winds, flooding and more. A deadly landslide hit the island of Sulawesi in Indonesia. Beryl left a massive path of destruction as it set the record for the earliest Category 4 hurricane. And Japanese authorities said more than 120 people died in Tokyo’s record heatwave.
Those hot temperatures are particularly merciless.
The global average for July 2024 was 62.4 degrees Fahrenheit (16.91 degrees Celsius), which is 1.2 degrees (0.68 Celsius) above the 30-year average for the month, according to Copernicus. The temperatures were a small fraction lower than the same period last year.
It is the second warmest July and the second warmest of any month recorded in the agency’s records, behind only July 2023. Earth also had its two hottest days on record, July 22 and July 23, each averaging about 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit (17.16 degrees Celsius).
During July, the world was 1.48 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer, according to Copernicus’ measurements, than in pre-industrial times. That is close to the warming limit agreed to by almost every country in the world in the 2015 Paris climate agreement: 1.5 degrees.
El Nino – which naturally warms the Pacific Ocean and changes weather around the globe – triggered the 13th hottest month on record, Copernicus senior climate scientist Julien Nicolas said. That has ended, so there is little relief in temperatures in July. La Nina conditions – a natural cooling – are not expected until later in the year.
But there is still a general warming trend.
“The global picture is not much different from where we were a year ago,” Nicolas said in an interview.
“An important contributing factor is the fact that global sea surface temperatures are at or near record highs over the past year,” he said. “The main driving force, the driving actor behind these high temperatures is the long-term warming trend directly related to the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”
This includes carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas.
July temperatures hit some regions hard, including western Canada and the western United States. They baked, with about one-third of the US population under warnings at one point of dangerous record-breaking heat.
In southern and eastern Europe, the Italian health ministry issued the most severe heat warning for several cities in southern Europe and the Balkans. Greece was forced to close its biggest cultural attraction, the Acropolis, due to extreme temperatures. The majority of France was under a heat warning as the country welcomed the Olympic Games in late July.
Most of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and eastern Antarctica were also affected, according to Copernicus. The temperatures in Antarctica were well above average, say the scientists.
“Things are always going to get worse because we haven’t stopped doing what’s making it worse,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who was not part of the report.
Schmidt noted that different methodologies or calculations could lead to slightly different results, including that July could even continue the streak. The main takeaway, he said: “Even if the heat wave ends, the forces that are pushing temperatures higher are not stopping.
“Is July a record or not? No, because what’s important, what’s affecting everyone,” Schmidt said, “is that the temperatures this year and last year are still much, much warmer than they were in the 1980s, than they were pre-industrial. . And we are seeing the effects of that change.”
People around the globe should not see relief in July numbers, experts say.
“A lot of attention has been given to this 13-month series of world records,” said Nicolas Copernicus. “But the consequences of climate change have been visible for many years. This started before June 2023, and they will not end because this record series has ended.”
___
Alexa St. is an Associated Press climate solutions reporter. John. Follow her on X, formerly known as Twitter, @alexa_stjohn. Contact her at ast.john@ap.org.
___
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage is financially supported by multiple private foundations. AP is responsible for each and every subject. Find AP standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and covered areas of funding at AP.org.
