by Gareth Southgate has many dilemmas to resolve before he picks England’s Euro 2024 squad, and there will no doubt be heated discussions with assistant Steve Holland in the coming weeks about the left-backs and No 6 and the need for Jordan Henderson.
The biggest question among them is which striker to take on Harry Kane. Given that teams have been reduced to 23 players from 26 at the last two tournaments, Southgate is likely to choose just two from the number 9. Callum Wilson was once in the picture but has been sidelined with injuries. Dominic Solanke has charged but it is too late. The battle to join Kane at the Euros will be between Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney.
They match up pretty evenly. On form, Watkins has the advantage with a flood of goals and assists since Unai Emery took charge of Aston Villa. Toney returned from his betting ban in January with a few goals but is less prolific, although perhaps understandably playing for Brentford rather than Villa. Watkins has a bit more international experience, having made 11 caps and scored three goals; Toney has one goal in two appearances.
Then there’s their profile: does Southgate want an alternative to Kane, someone who can run the lanes and be a quick threat on the counter like Watkins? Or does he need an understudy, a focal point that could mimic Kane’s role as Toney? Toney’s physicality and back-to-back might suit Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham.
So far, so close. But the one skill that is not in dispute is penalty taking.
Toney has been described as the best penalty taker in the world by his manager, Thomas Frank, and although Frank is biased, he has a point. Toney’s approach feels almost imperceptible, standing over the ball and staring down the goalie in a game of chicken. It’s a game he almost always wins.
The stats bear out Frank’s claim: Toney has taken 32 career penalties and scored 30 of those for a 94 percent conversion rate. For context, the Premier League average is around 78 per cent, as is Lionel Messi; Cristiano Ronaldo converts 85 percent of his penalties; Harry Kane scored 86 percent.
In contrast, only 70 percent of penalties are scored in shootouts. This is partly due to the pressure of the situation, and the fact that the receivers are usually only one or two specialists on each team. A master receiver is highly valued.
There is a wider question here: should penalties really be a factor in deciding a tournament squad? Well, maybe more than ever. The modern 24-team Euro format is an asymmetric mess, and it means that the group stage is relatively easy to get through: the standard is diluted, the opponents are weaker and teams can finish third in the group and progress is still being made. For the strongest nations, the Euros are a de facto competition.
England are very likely to go through the group. With that in mind, winning the four games will be the overwhelming mission, and this is the crucial point – if England are going to win the Euros, statistically they will need to win at least one penalty. All winners from Greece had a shootout in 2004. European champions Italy and World Cup winners Argentina won two penalty games.
As talented as this England squad is, they’re unlikely to get everyone in their path this summer, so stacking the deck in their favor for a shootout seems like a smart approach. Chelsea’s Cole Palmer is another who has improved his technique, with a perfect record of nine out of nine so far in his career. Palmer is also weighing on Southgate’s mind in the coming weeks.
There is conflicting evidence regarding the effectiveness of throwing shootout specialists late in overtime. Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho were heavily involved by Southgate to take penalties against Italy in the Euro 2020 final, and both missed their kicks. That happened just a few weeks after the Europa League final in which Manchester United and Sevilla both called on players specifically to take penalties – Juan Mata, Alex Telles and Dani Raba – and all three scored. Perhaps the most famous example of shootout engineering is Louis van Gaal’s call to throw on Dutch goalkeeper Tim Krul at the 2014 World Cup: he saved two Costa Rican penalties to win the quarter-final. Van Gaal resigned from substitutes in the semi-final, he was unable to bring Krul on, and they lost a football match to Argentina.
There is no guarantee that Toney or Palmer will score, but they would provide a threat from the bench and are experts from the spot, and England do not have many of those. Southgate only has 23 players to choose from so there is little risk to his selections, but in the closest calls, penalties should be in the conversation. Because the reality is that if England are going to win Euro 2024, they will probably have to beat at least one opponent from 12 yards.
