Is UK’s worst ever rain linked to ‘scary’ unexplained Atlantic warming?

Thirteen months ago, the Atlantic sea surface temperature jumped up by a huge amount that was far out of the normal range. Temperatures have remained more than 1C above normal since then – and no one is quite sure why.

Yahoo News spoke to University of Reading expert Dr Till Kuhlbrodt about why Atlantic sea surface temperatures could be so high – and what it could mean for Britain’s weather and the future of climate change.

Temperatures in the world’s oceans are at record highs, with the global average reaching 21.06C in February, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). But the change in Atlantic temperature is rapid and unexpected, says Dr Kuhlbrodt.

“All of a sudden, it’s jumped out of your normal range for that time of year. It’s been left in the cover where it usually is, and because it’s been going for 13 months, it’s obviously not a blip. That’s the why we started analyzing and looking at what could be causing this, it’s something we haven’t seen in years,” he says.

Dr. Kulbrodt is not the only scientist who is worried about warming water temperatures around the world. Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist based in Cambridge, England who studies arctic ice levels, recently told the New York Times: “It’s quite scary, in part because I’m not hearing any scientists who have a convincing explanation why we have it. received such an event.

“We’re used to having a pretty good handle on things. But the sense right now is that things have gone further and faster than we expected,” Larter continued. “That’s an uncomfortable place to be as a scientist.”

Professor Eliot Jacobsonretired professor of mathematics and computer science, tracking the rise in temperature on X (formerly Twitter), described the situation as “bananas”.

The Earth’s oceans absorb 90% of the excess energy our planet accumulates, causing greenhouse gases from human activity. Currently, the planet is absorbing 1.9 watts more energy per square meter than is being radiated back into space. Per year, that’s an amount of energy equivalent to 300 times the amount of electricity used worldwide.

What could that mean for the UK?

Rising sea levels in the Atlantic could lead to a change in weather patterns – and could even be behind recent months of wet weather in the UK.

England had its highest rainfall in the 18 months to March, according to provisional figures from the Met Office released earlier this month.

About 1,695.9mm of rain fell from October 2022 to March 2024. This is the highest level for any 18-month period in England since comparable Met Office data began in 1836.

Rises in sea surface temperatures are associated with turbulent weather, Dr Kuhlbrodt explained, because air can hold more water when it’s warmer.

“That means there’s a much higher risk of very heavy precipitation, especially for us here in Western Europe – geographically, we’re downstream,” he said.

But the warmer sea surface has also affected the jet stream – the winds about five to seven miles up that blow from west to east, Dr Kuhlbrodt said.

“The jetstream winds that come directly across are usually more turbulent in the UK, thanks to the warmer temperatures, so we have longer phases of very wet weather.

“But there is also the likelihood of longer periods of dry weather: so we have the risk of floods and flash floods, then droughts and wildfire risk and we have to look at the water supply.”

Research carried out by the University of Reading in 2012 after a sweltering summer also questions whether there is a link. “Computer simulations suggest that these changes in ocean temperature affect the upper atmosphere. Warming in the North Atlantic causes low pressure in western Europe in the summer and drives weather systems that bring rain into the UK.

Professor Rowan Sutton, Director of Climate Research at the National Center for Atmospheric Science and researcher at the University of Reading’s Walker Institute, said at the time: “The North Atlantic Ocean has slowly shifted between warmer and cooler conditions over 100 last year. We saw a rapid shift to a warmer North Atlantic in the 1990s and we think this is increasing the chance of wet summers across the UK and hot, dry summers around the Mediterranean – a situation that is likely to last. the North Atlantic. still in a warm phase.”

Could it be linked to shipping?

The team investigated whether tiny particles from burning fuel could be behind the rise. From 2020, in agreement with major ship owners in the Atlantic there is a change towards higher quality fuels, which means much less soot and sulfur emissions.

These particles have a cooling effect, by reflecting sunlight, so the team investigated the idea that there could be a warming effect from the reduction in soot.

“There is a detectable effect, but it is small – it is not enough to explain this rise in temperature,” explained Dr Kuhlbrodt.

Is it a glimpse of the future?

The team’s calculations show that the warming of the Atlantic, which has happened at the same time as devastating floods in Europe and wildfires in Canada, is what we can expect as the ‘new normal’ if we go below 3C.

“If you reach global warming of 3C at some point this century (hopefully not) this will be the new normal,” said Dr Kuhlbrodt. “This is what we’re going to face if we don’t really start taking drastic measures, reducing fossil fuel costs and reducing carbon emissions.”

The researchers say there is a possible link between the warming in the Atlantic and the record low levels of sea ice in the Antarctic, suggesting a change in ocean currents, and perhaps, according to Dr Kuhlbrodt, “ hidden climate links between the poles”. .

He added: “It looks like the north Atlantic has been warming faster over the last seven or eight years. Could there be some sort of circulation change leading to stronger warming in the North Atlantic? It certainly is.” we want to investigate.”

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