by On Saturday, March 7, 1970, in Perry, Florida, more than half a century ago, a tiny log home’s day in the sun was marred by a dense cloud that hid the long-awaited total solar eclipse of over 25,000 people. come see.
The long-term weather records suggested a 70 percent chance of clear or partly cloudy skies, which was the main reason why so many people were affected in this community, which was only about 8,000 usually populated in them.
On that sad and sad Saturday. scientists from around the world stood in the clutter of their cameras and gauges, shaking their heads and waiting in vain for even a brief glimpse of the eclipsed sun. As the moon’s massive shadow swept in on schedule, an eerie evening darkness fell over the landscape, accompanied by croaking frogs and chirping insects.
Related: Total solar eclipse 2024: Everything you need to know
Max Waldmeier (1912 – 2000) Swiss astronomer and director of the Zurich Observatory, who was particularly interested in the sun, that he had been planning this trip to Perry for two years with his science team, mainly because of its statistically stimulating meteorological patterns. But after the moonthat the shadow had passed, Professor Waldmeier was close to tears as he helped his colleagues dismantle their heavy equipment.
This melancholy story is in stark contrast to the story of three amateur astronomers, who also came to Perry for the eclipse. But instead of waiting under the gloomy skies, they quickly piled their gear into a rental car and drove through the night more than 350 miles (560 kilometers) to Poston, South Carolina, where they found skies almost free of cloud.
At noon on Eclipse day, they set up their various instruments in a tobacco field, where they watched the southwestern sky change from gray to pink and then to violet-gray as the moon’s shadow came. in. They saw Baily’s beads and the scarlet solar chromosphere. and the shining solar crown, brighter than a Full Moon, as well as irregularities in the dark edge of the moon against the brilliant corona. As it all came to an end, a yellow “diamond ring” signaled the end of the spectacular event. One of the three viewers said: “It was the shortest three minutes of my life!”
So, if you want to see the upcoming total eclipse, the moral is simple:
“Stay mobile!”
More on this in a moment.
If you are unable to catch the solar eclipse in person you can watch the total solar eclipse live here on Space.com. And keep up with all the action with our full live solar eclipse 2024 updates blog.
Related: How to sunbathe safely (and what to look for)
Statistics: Danger!
It should always be remembered that long-term climatological statistics — no matter how reliable — is not complete.
In his 1973 novel, “Time Enough for Love,” science fiction writer Robert A. Heinlein came up with the following aphorism: “Climate is what we looking forward toweather is what we have get!“
How true this is!
And what happened in Perry, Florida in 1970 is far from an isolated incident. In fact, it has certainly happened more than a few times with other eclipses over the years.
Another great example of this is the whole solar eclipse on July 11, 1991. The Big Island of Hawaii was completely within the path of totality. According to climatology, when the north-east trade winds blow, the east (wind) side of the island would see heavy clouds and rain, and on the sheltered Lee (west side) of the island, the trades would be downslope and dry out. Since the trade winds blow 95 percent of the time in July, the assumption was that clear skies were given to western Hawaii. Unfortunately, a tropical upper tropical tank (“TUTT”) moved over the Big Island on the day of the eclipse, bringing more clouds than the sun and disappointing the thousands of people who came to Hawaii to see the eclipse.
In recent weeks, I have spoken with many people who have made arrangements to view the April 8 eclipse from Texas. The comments usually go something like this: “I chose Texas because that’s the best place with clear skies.” In reality, however, the weather outlook from Texas through the South is marginal at best.
Climatology records show little difference in weather from Texas to Arkansas. Across this area, average cloud cover in April is consistently around 60-65 percent. Clear days on April 8 occur in about 45-50 percent of the years for which records are available, and the chance of seeing the sun eclipsed at any given moment on April 8 is about 55-60 percent. Admittedly, these conditions are slightly better than those for the Northeast of the United States, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, but, surprisingly, not much better.
In short, the weather in April is extremely changeable and changeable at any location along the path of totality, there is some hope of very clear skies (or dense clouds) on eclipse day.
Keys to success: Latest forecasts, good judgment and mobility
Really reliable meteorological weather forecasts for eclipse day are not possible more than a week or so in advance. For mid-latitudes in late winter and early spring, large daily deviations from normal often occur. We also have to take into account the eclipse itself, because even if April 8 begins with just normal cloud cover, it would not be normal at full time because of the interval of about 75 minutes of partial eclipse increase. During that interval, the reduced solar heating will cause a cooling of the local atmosphere, which is accompanied by reduced cumulus clouds as well as an increase in stratiform cloudiness, as has actually been observed in the past.
So, if, on the eclipse day, your observation site is blue skies mixed with a scattered-to-broken layer of puffy cumulus clouds just before the start of the eclipse, you might want to stay right where you are, because as the partial phases go and the sun descends into a thin crescent, the ambient air. temperatures will likely drop and those convective clouds – driven by warming sunlight – will descend. Conversely, if the local atmosphere is slightly moist or muggy, low stratus clouds or even fog may develop as the air cools.
Given such weather uncertainties, plans for where to look should be kept flexible until the latest possible time before the eclipse, which (as in 2017) occurs on a Monday.
Related: Solar eclipse 2024 weather forecast: Questions and Answers with an expert
Now, NOAA Weather Prediction Center providing increasingly reliable forecast products, enabling people to choose a location where the chance of cloudy skies is low. These can be augmented by forecasts issued by The National Weather Service forecast offices located near and along the path of totality.
By this coming weekend, it will be time to switch from FORE-casting to NOW-casting: The latest meteorological data, including careful scrutiny of satellite images and radar scansbe used to modify the plans based solely on climatological data.
Eclipse seekers today have a great advantage over those of just 20 years ago, in that they can now use their smartphone screens to view satellite and radar images, as well as GPS details to help make last minute moves on local roads. An excellent hard copy reference guide to growing your digital data is the “Road Atlas for the Total Solar Eclipse of 2024” by retired NASA astrophysicist and avid eclipse chaser, Fred Espenak. The Atlas contains a comprehensive set of 26 maps of the path of totality across Mexico, the US and Canada.
At the end . . . as we emphasized earlier. . . A mobile strategy will give you the highest probability of seeing these best celestial road shows, because no matter where you plan to be, staying mobile to avoid cloud cover will always improve your chances.
For those who intend to place themselves on the path of wholeness and hope to experience the many phenomena that accompany that magical exclamation “whole!” we wish everyone the best of luck and clear skies.
