by There was widespread celebration among intermediaries six weeks ago when the Football Association was defeated in a lawsuit that sought to cap fees for brokering transfer deals. Nine days into January and agents aren’t swapping directly: it was a window of plenty of talk but a dearth of deals being completed.
Middle men in the multi-million pound deals for talent can only think back to a year ago when clubs were ready to spend big in the middle of the season. The window wasn’t even open when Liverpool made their move for Cody Gakpo, a Boxing Day coup to put the Dutch ahead of Manchester United.
The spending didn’t stop there. Leeds found the money to bolster their survival hopes with a £10 million move for Max Wöber, while Southampton had a similar tactic with an early move for Mislav Orsic and an £8 million departure.
Then there was Chelsea. Benoît Badiashile cost £35 million for the first team, while David Fofana and Andrey Santos were bought for the academy for a combined £28 million. By the end of the month they had broken the Premier League transfer record for Enzo Fernández having already beaten Arsenal to the £89 million signing of Mykhailo Mudryk.
A year later and – for a number of reasons – there was no such frantic spending. Agents are speaking to clubs, holding meetings and assessing the foreign market for available players, but there are no big purchases yet. Some are waiting for an agreement to start the spending, if Eddie Nketiah or Conor Gallagher can bring life to the market. But it is far from certain that those two will quit in the next three weeks.
FFP rules are more relevant than ever
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to spending is Everton’s penalty for breaking the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR). In football circles, it is short for “FFP”, as it was called financial fair play when it was first introduced. Clubs cannot lose more than £105 million over three years and Everton’s 10-point deduction showed just how serious it is.
It frustrated many, and the situation is similar to allowing rich owners to buy a house but not decorate it. But he is no longer in the background when it comes to recruitment, with clubs making a big deal out of him as they plan their window.
So a club like Newcastle with their Arab owners cannot simply buy their way out of an injury and suspension crisis. In fact, as reported by the Daily Telegraph, they are looking at whether they can reduce Sandro Tonali’s wages with a ban on betting offences, as it frees up money to spend as cover. Other clubs who have received windfalls for players in previous windows have spent or are close to using the proceeds.
There are other factors that play away from PSR. Last summer the Saudi Pro League engaged in a sort of carting to get players from the Premier League and other parts of Europe. Aleksandar Mitrovic’s departure meant Fulham £45 million, while Liverpool received £52 million after the departures of Fabinho and Jordan Henderson.
But the mid-season window is not expected to be as active, largely because the big clubs have used the eight loan places in SPL squads. The Galacticos currently have no more space, although that could change in the summer if they raise the quota for clubs. Mohamed Salah, who is subject to an offer close to the summer deadline, is not expected to be on the agenda until the season is over.
The fading force of La Liga
European leagues are not as strong either, meaning there is no escape route for players looking to move. Jude Bellingham’s £88.5 million move to Real Madrid covered just how much of a weakened La Liga force it is. Spain has dropped out of the top five countries for spenders and without Bellingham would be closer to Championship level than the top five in the Premier League, Saudi Pro League, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A .
The reasons for the reduction in spending include the rules bound by La Liga clubs, which had the perfect demonstration in 2021 when Lionel Messi agreed a new contract to stay at Barcelona but the terms did not breach La Liga financial regulations . La Liga president Javier Tebas talks about sustainability when interviewed about the competition and its future. He believes that La Liga is on the right path.
“The British market is a doped market,” he said last season. “It is quite dangerous that the markets are doped, inflated, as has been happening in recent years in Europe, because that could endanger the sustainability of European football. I am happy because our clubs are economically sustainable, and that means we have a future for many years to come.”
In the eyes of players looking for a move or agents negotiating transfers, Spain is not the destination it once was. After the Bellingham deal, 32-year-old Antoine Griezmann was the next biggest summer transfer, which would see him return permanently to Atletico Madrid for £17.5 million. After that, we are in the territory of the €14 million (£12.2 million) paid for César Montes (Almeria) and Artem Dovbyk (Girona).
Impact of Afcon and Asia Cup
Another important factor in the lack of transfer activity is the Africa Cup of Nations and the Asian Cup. Clubs have lost players in these major mid-season competitions and are simply holding on to their squad players for cover. Tottenham have lost Son Heung-min , Pape Sarr and Yves Bissouma, so it would make no sense to lose more.
Spurs have been one of the most active players in this quiet market. Genoa’s Radu Dragusin has been booked in a £21.5 million deal to give them an extra centre-back, while Timo Werner will come on loan. These may not be the big January deals of Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll moving around the Premier League, but at least they have shown that a club is willing to do business early in the window. Ben Brereton Díaz is going to Sheffield United the other big loan, but the feeling is that the exciting action is yet to come
