by One is an urbane, Oxford-educated lawyer in North London, and the other is a quintessential Northerner who can get away with speaking his mind.
We could be talking about Tony Blair and John Prescott here, but the description fits neatly with the current Labor leadership of Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner.
In a week where Ms Rayner is under more scrutiny than ever thanks to the house sale controversy, she is being asked the same questions that were once asked of Prescott: is she a valuable asset to the Party or a hopeless liability?
Ms Rayner brings to the Labor front bench the kind of authenticity that none of her colleagues can match. Although the party’s image-makers love to remind people of her rise from teenage single mother to shadow deputy prime minister, her appeal to the general public lies in her perceived honesty, surveys show.
Polls say she gives a taste of politics when the main party leaders are as spicy as a mashed potato, and her smooth Stockport accents are a counterbalance to Sir Keir’s legalistic delivery.
Until now, her unique brand has been immune to controversies such as her description of Tories as “scum”. It was the verbal equivalent of John (now Lord) Prescott punching a member of the public in 2001, and Blair (now Sir Tony) punched him and said: “John is John.”
Suffice it to say that “Angela is Angela” will not be enough to diffuse the crisis facing the current Labor deputy leader, as her house is being investigated by the police and, in a general election year, could be very popular on her among the community. real danger.
James Frayne, founding partner of policy research agency Public First, says Rayner has so far been a “huge asset” to Labor but her popularity could be damaged if voters decide she is not as honest and straightforward as they thought. she was.
He said: “Four or five years ago, she got a mixed response in focus groups, some people really liked her and others didn’t really like her, but two or three years ago she really started to take it in focus groups, unmotivated. , especially according to what you might classify as working-class swing voters.
“They described her as honest, authentic and very different, and even now she is the only politician in any party that working-class voters name as someone they like.”
All that could change, however, depending on the outcome of a police investigation into her financial affairs.
To summarize: Ms Rayner, who bought her council house in 2007 under the Right to Buy scheme, sold it in 2015 and made a profit of £48,000. She says it was her main residence, meaning she was not liable for capital gains tax on the profit.
And that would have been the end of that, had it not been for the fact that five years earlier, after she had married Mark Rayner, she had re-registered the births of her two youngest children, raising questions about whether was, in fact, her main residence.
If that were the case, her former council property would be a second home and liable to CGA, as married couples can only count one property as their main residence under HMRC rules.
Ms Rayner, who was MP for Ashton-under-Lyne the same year she sold the property, said she put her house on the market like anyone else, used a solicitor and estate agent, and did not she is aware of it. HMRC rules at the time.
Since the tax issues arose, she says, she has taken advice from a tax expert who was “categorical that I have no capital gains tax”.
Sir Keir has backed his deputy’s decision not to publish that tax advice, saying he has “full confidence” in it.
Greater Manchester Police, which initially said Mr Rayner would not face an investigation, is now looking at the case again, and has assigned a detective chief inspector to reassess the matter after Tory deputy chairman James Daly complained do that officers did not contact witnesses or did not look. by relevant documents.
Regardless of the result, Sir Keir cannot sack Mr Rayner, as deputy leaders are directly elected by Labor members. Whether he would want to or not is a more interesting question.
Sir Keir sacked Mr Rayner from his role as Labor campaign co-ordinator after the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, when the Conservatives won the seat over Labor in a landslide.
There were even rumors that Ms Rayner might challenge him for the leadership. The following year she told the BBC that Sir Keir needed to put “more welly” into his speeches, suggesting that tensions were not far below the surface.
Labor insiders say Sir Keir has now come to accept Ms Rayner, who he trusts will stand up for him at Prime Minister’s Questions when Rishi Sunak is away, and that they see, like Prescott before him, that she is a net asset to him.
Ms. Rayner is far more popular than Prescott ever was, Frayne says, and more useful.
First of all, Sir Tony was much more popular than Sir Keir, and didn’t really need to be pressured by the rufty-tufty left wing.
Prescott’s main role was as a bridge between New Labor and the old republic, especially the trade unions, who were always suspicious of the privately educated Sir Tony and preferred to deal with a former shopkeeper who speaking normally in the form of MP Kingston upon Hull at the time. East.
By contrast, Rayner is a bridge between the north London dinner party that dominates Labour’s ideology and the Red Wall seats that went to Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019 and that Sir Keir must win back .
Adding to the mix is the fact that Sir Keir is not Sir Tony. It is no coincidence that Rayner’s sudden surge in popularity coincided with the era of Starmer and Sunak, two leaders who, for many voters, are so bland they can be distinguished from each other.
Frayne says: “Prescott was useful for talking to the party machine, Rayner is useful for talking to the public. “Whether she continues to be popular depends on whether the issue of her house affects the way people see her.
“Her appeal isn’t based on policy or anything ideological, it’s because she’s seen as tough, honest and truthful, and if people decide that’s not the case anymore there’s no going back.”
One person who knows how this works is Mr. Sunak. During the pandemic, he was seen by the public as honest, different and fresh as he oversaw the furlough scheme, but his involvement in Partygate and the controversy over his family’s finances turned voters against him and his poll ratings plummeted never back.
Whether Ms Rayner’s personal pursuit goes the same way, it now looks like it will be in the hands of Greater Manchester Police.
