by Extreme weather conditions across the Mediterranean arrived earlier than usual this year, with heatwaves in Greece, Cyprus and Turkey and major flooding in Mallorca. And some weather experts say this could be the start of a sweltering summer ahead.
Greece is experiencing its earliest ever heat wave, with temperatures of 43C recorded at central and southern weather stations this week. In Greece a heat wave is defined as a period of temperatures above 38C.
The unseasonal heat wave, caused by southerly winds bringing heat and dust from North Africa, prompted authorities to close schools and kindergartens, as well as tourist attractions such as the Acropolis in Athens.
“This heat wave will go down in history,” meteorologist Panos Giannopoulos told Greek state TV channel ERT. “In the 20th century we didn’t have a heat wave before June 19. We’ve had a few more in the 21st century, but no heat wave before June 15.”
In Turkey, the temperature is 8 to 12 degrees higher than the seasonal norm. The high temperatures have exacerbated wildfires across the country, one of which engulfed the Olympos Resort in Kumluca Antalya, where wooden houses burned within hours, according to Euronews. In Cyprus, which is also experiencing high temperatures, three villages in the Paphos area were evacuated as wildfires quickly spread across dry grassland.
The warm conditions across Europe come as the UK experiences unseasonably warm temperatures, with the mercury down an average of two degrees compared to expected temperatures for the month.
Meanwhile, Majorca airport, Spain’s third largest, was forced to close on June 11 after heavy rain flooded the runways and entered the terminal buildings. The storms and heavy rains were caused by a type of slow-moving storm, known as “depression alasada en niveles altos” (DANA), which followed a period of high temperatures in Spain.
Much of this will remind holidaymakers of past summers. Last July, the mercury exceeded 40 degrees across large areas of the Mediterranean, sparking wildfires that were extremely extreme in Greece, including the popular resort island of Rhodes.
Although forecasters cannot find an accurate weather forecast for the school summer holiday season well in advance, a seasonal forecast – based on regional trends, monthly indicators and regional meteorological offices – can give us a good idea of what to expect. expecting it.
What weather can we expect in the Med this summer?
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) mid-range seasonal forecast (covering July, August and September) says that each continent could see extremes, with warmer-than-average temperatures in the Med and northern Scotland and Scandinavia will be wetter than usual.
“The second part of the European summer is likely to be warmer than average everywhere (with a chance above the climatological 80th percentile for seasonal averages), drier than average in the south and wetter than average in the long run from the north,” It is said.
This is in line with the predictions made by Weather & Radar, who tell us: “We can say that July 2024 is looking above average for Europe in particular, especially Spain, but it could be the average would be a few days of warm weather. , followed by around or below average temperatures.”
And Rosie Mammatt, PHD expert at the University of Reading, also agrees: “We are already seeing very warm temperatures in the Mediterranean basin, and it looks like the summer could provide even higher record temperatures,” predicts she
The sea will feel warmer
C3S is predicting higher than average temperatures in the coming months. “The forecasts initiated in June continue the signal seen in earlier forecasts for higher than average sea surface temperatures over the next six months, in most ocean basins with the exception of the equatorial Pacific and Oceanic regions South. The first relates to the likely development of La Niña conditions later in the year.”
And these warm seas will, in turn, affect temperature and rainfall, says Mammatt: “Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic have been extremely high for a significant period of time, which is affecting the weather being we get This will continue to affect temperatures and precipitation across Europe this summer,” she says.
Wildfires will make headlines again
Wildfires are not unusual across European countries during the summer months, but the summer of 2023 saw a greater number of fires over a longer period. According to C3S, the cumulative burnt area across Europe in 2023 was the fourth largest on record, at 500,000 hectares. Already, wildfires are burning across parts of southern and southeastern Europe.
With warmer and drier conditions expected in the three-month seasonal forecast for Europe, the summer of 2024 is likely to see more wildfires. However, Mammatt predicts that it may not be as severe as 2023: “It looks like it will be less dry than last year, but with low rainfall expected in some areas, the risk of wildfires remains.”
A huge hurricane season is on the horizon
Mammatt says some indicators show we could be in for a powerful hurricane season in 2024.
“It’s predicted to be a very active hurricane season, in part due to these high sea temperatures. Last summer, we were in the El Niño phase, which suppressed hurricane development. This year, we are returning to the La Niña phase, which means we have more favorable conditions for hurricane formation.
“Although the hurricanes themselves will hit countries on the other side of the Atlantic, a former hurricane has the ability to go back across the ocean and bring heavy rain and strong winds to Europe. However, this is very uncertain as it depends in part on the location of the jet stream, which is much more difficult to predict in advance,” says Mammatt.
I’m worried about my holiday, can I cancel?
The Foreign Office has not updated its travel warnings to Greece, Turkey, Cyprus or Spain as a result of the recent extreme weather patterns.
ATOL-protected tour operators must offer a refund or reschedule your holiday if there are “extraordinary” or “unavoidable” circumstances that will significantly change the nature of your holiday.
Currently, hot weather, wildfires and heavy rain are not considered unusual or unavoidable circumstances, so you are unlikely to be given a refund or the option to reschedule your vacation. Remember, however, that you can transfer your vacation to someone else for a nominal fee.
Otherwise, if you do not wish to proceed with your package disposal, you may wish to call your agent or operator to see if you can change the dates, although we do not have an exact forecast for the holiday summer. , there’s nothing to say that you won’t be postponing your vacation from a perfectly pleasant week to a week with unfavorable conditions. So hold tight, for now.
