by Wind and rain may lead to larger and more severe desert locust outbreaks, and human-caused climate change is likely to increase weather patterns and lead to higher outbreak risks, which a new study found.
The desert locust – a short-horned species found in some dry areas of northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia – is a migratory insect that travels in the millions over long distances and damages crops, causing with famine and food insecurity. . A square kilometer swarm contains 80 million locusts that can eat enough food crops in one day to feed 35,000 people. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN describes it as “the world’s most destructive migratory pest”.
The study, published in Science Advances on Wednesday, said these outbreaks will be “much more difficult to prevent and control” in a warming climate.
Xiaogang He, the study’s author and an assistant professor at the National University of Singapore, said more frequent and more severe extreme weather events due to climate change could contribute to unpredictable locust outbreaks.
But he hoped the study could help countries “understand and address the impacts of climate variability on local dynamics, particularly in the context of its consequences for agricultural productivity and food security”, and encouraged better regional and continental cooperation among countries and regulatory organizations to respond. quickly and build early warning systems.
To assess the risk of locust outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East and the link to climate change, the scientists analyzed the incidence of desert locust outbreaks from 1985 to 2020 using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Locust Hub data tool. They created and used a data-driven framework to examine insect patterns to determine what causes outbreaks over long distances.
They found that 10 countries, including Kenya, Morocco, Niger, Yemen and Pakistan, experienced the most locust outbreaks among the 48 nations involved.
The worst outbreak of desert locusts in 25 years hit East Africa in 2019 and 2020, when the insects ravaged hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland and damaged crops, trees and other vegetation, causing on food and livelihood security.
Elfatih Abdel-Rahman, a scientist at the International Center for Insect Physiology and Ecology who was not part of the study, said that widespread outbreaks of desert locust due to climate change will pose a serious threat to livelihoods in the regions concerned due to a reduction in production food and increase in food. prices.
The researchers also found a strong link between the extent of locust outbreaks and weather and land conditions such as air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and wind. Desert locusts are more likely to infest dry areas that receive sudden heavy rains, and the weather has a strong influence on the number of insects in an outbreak.
El Nino, a recurring and natural climate phenomenon that affects weather worldwide, was also strongly linked to larger and more severe desert locust outbreaks.
University of Delaware entomology professor Douglas Tallamy, who was not part of the research, said that stormy weather and rain stimulate vegetation and therefore encourage massive population growth in locusts.
“As that diversity increases, it’s logical to predict that outbreaks of locusts will also increase,” Tallaght said.
This study is another example of a call that has become very strong that societies around the globe must come together to reduce climate change and its impacts but also to implement strategies in response to global events such as desertification threats which is increasing. locusts,” said Paula Shrewsbury, a professor of entomology at the University of Maryland. Shrewsbury was not involved in the study.
The study found that particularly vulnerable locations such as Morocco and Kenya remain high risk but that locust habitats had increased since 1985 and are projected to continue to grow by at least 5% through the end of the 21st century, to western India and presumably west-central Asia. .
He gives the example of the Rub’ al Khali, or Empty Quarter, a desert in the south of the Arabian Peninsula, as a place that was historically uncommon for outbreaks of desert locusts but later became a hotspot. Outbreaks of locusts in the desert occurred in 2019 after uncontrolled breeding following a cyclone, which filled the desert with freshwater lakes.
Large locust outbreaks can have major financial consequences. It cost more than $450 million to respond to a locust outbreak in West Africa from 2003 to 2005, according to the World Bank. The outbreak is estimated to have caused $2.5 billion in crop damage, he said.
Countries affected by desert locust outbreaks are already coping with climate-driven extremes such as droughts, floods and heat waves, and a potential increase in locust risks in these regions could exacerbate existing challenges, said research author Xiaogang.
“Unaddressing these risks could put additional pressure on food production systems and increase the severity of global food insecurity,” he said.
___
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage is financially supported by multiple private foundations. AP is responsible for each and every subject. Find AP standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and covered areas of funding at AP.org.
