by In 2023, more than 7% of cars sold in the United States will be electric vehicles. In some parts of the world, such as Norway, the percentage was 20%. In California, where I live, nearly 60% of people looking for a car in 2021 said they would at least consider getting an EV.
This rise in demand comes after years of flagship sales. As of early 2010, fewer than 100,000 cars on US roads were EVs. That number surpassed the 1 million mark in 2018, an increase of more than 80% on the previous year.
What explains this seemingly unexpected boom in the last few years?
The key word here is “seems.” And the answer reveals an interesting history that most people are not aware of.
I teach entrepreneurship at USC’s Marshall School of Business, and have been studying the EV market for over ten years. When I ask students, “How long have EVs been commercially available?” most will answer five years, or 10, maybe 20. One might point to an EV launched by General Motors in the 1990s whose name can’t be remembered.
But every now and then, a precocious person – usually in the back row – will raise a hand and answer, “From the early 1900s.”
That’s almost the right answer.
Electric vehicles and the long road to adoption
EVs are new old technology. Most people don’t know that they have been commercially available since as far back as the 1890s. Back then, there was a fight over the best way to power a car, or what business professors would call “dominant design”. The options were internal combustion engines, electric and – as unlikely as it sounds – steam. Yes, that’s how long it’s been since that battle was first fought.
Almost 40% of the vehicles on the road in the early 1900s were electric. But after Henry Ford’s first Model T, which used an internal combustion engine, rolled off the production line in 1908, they all but disappeared. EVs have been trying to make a comeback ever since. As the precocious person in the back of my classroom knows, they have been the “next big thing” for over 100 years.
So what factors help explain why EVs lost the battle for dominant design back then – and why they seem to have a fighting chance today?
The ‘cool factor’ – but much more
Those who cite the Tesla Roadster as the first modern EV reflect its reputation as fun, sporty and cool. And they’re right: the Tesla Roadster made EVs cool – if expensive, at more than 100,000 US dollars when it launched in 2008.
But there are many more factors that explain the rise in demand and, more importantly, the widespread adoption of EVs.
One reason for the rise in demand starting around 2010 is better and more widely available charging infrastructure. In the US in 2009, there were less than 500 public and private charging stations across the country; today, there are more than 100 times more. That helped alleviate consumers’ “range anxiety,” that dreaded fear of running out of “juice” before you can get to a charging station.
But there are also many other factors at play: the right set of models and options offered by manufacturers, improved battery and charging technology and the right mix of government regulations and incentives. This led to healthy consumer demand.
Technology adoption: It takes a village – and time
Apart from these technical and economic factors, current studies and my own ongoing research also suggest that the social conversation around EVs – what everyone around the world says and thinks about them – has evolved to improvement too.
Technology adoption is influenced by what is known as “peer effects” – the desire to compare yourself to others. That’s because people make “social comparison” by paying attention to what others like them are doing and, more importantly, how those others might view their behavior. The same is true, for example, of the adoption of solar panels, another technology with personal and social benefits, like EVs.
As I noted earlier, the cool factor has a positive impact on EV adoption. It’s important to drive a cool car because that coolness is visible. And when a car has been uncooled for a long time, a fundamental – positive – change in public perception can have a huge impact on demand and adoption.
My research and other studies suggest that there may be a turning point in the mid to late 2010s, when both public perception and charging technology and infrastructure improved. It takes a village to make a market.
The challenge of EV adoption is a reminder that many of our technologies are not just tools or devices – they are ways to get things done. Technology comes from the Greek word “techne,” which means a practice, a set of habits and a way to achieve a goal.
Much of our technology, from early word processing software to today’s streaming services, depends on collective social behaviors and how they change – or, in many cases, don’t change.
For example, the standard “qwerty” keyboard is not intuitive. But because it set the standard, it was the dominant design. It is now too efficient, and too socially embedded, to be easily replaced.
New technologies do not look too different from what we are used to or it would be too difficult for us to adopt them. That’s why EV charging plugs look like—you guessed it—gas pump nozzles.
In other words, cool technologies must be compatible with existing behaviors and habits, or they will have a long way to go to establish new ones. Without this alignment, the new technology will sit on the shelf for a long time but will not succeed – as the EVs almost did.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a non-profit, independent news organization that brings you facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.
It was written by: Hovig Tchalian, University of Southern California.
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Hovig Tchalian does not work for any company or organization that would benefit from this article, he does not consult with, shares in a company or organization that would benefit from this article, and he has not disclosed any material connections beyond his appointment academic.
