by BENGALURU, India (AP) – Every year from June to September, a band of heavy rain sweeps from India’s southwest coast to its northeastern borders, quenching the thirsty fields of farmers.
India’s monsoon season is arguably the country’s most important weather phenomenon, and a good monsoon can significantly boost the nation’s economy and the livelihoods of its 120 million farmers. But man-made climate change is making rainfall more erratic, making it difficult for farmers to plant, grow and harvest crops on their rain-fed fields.
“It rains too much within a short space of time or it doesn’t rain at all,” said Vijay Jawandhia, a 77-year-old farmer in the western state of Maharashtra. Jawandhia grows cotton, soybean and various other crops that require a relatively cool climate and constant irrigation for the first few weeks after planting. “We planted our cotton seeds after a good monsoon was predicted, but it only fell for two days and stopped after that, so now we are worried that our crop will fail again.”
The India Meteorological Department had predicted good rains from the monsoon clouds earlier this year, but extreme heat in northern India halted the progress of the rains. The agency revised its projections in June, saying that this year’s rainfall will be less than previously estimated.
Many are looking for ways to adapt to this new and unpredictable reality. Experts recommend growing crops that need less water, better and more localized forecasting methods and protection against unexpected weather. But changing the centuries-old ways of dealing with the land will not be an easy task.
How is climate change affecting the monsoons?
India usually has two monsoons: one from June to September moving southwest to northeast, and another from October to December moving in the opposite direction.
But with more planet-warming gases in the air, the rain now just follows this pattern. This is because the warm air can hold more moisture from the Indian Ocean, and that rain is dumped all at once. It means that the monsoon is punctuated with intense floods and dry spells, rather than continuous rain throughout.
“When it rains now, it rains heavily,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a retired senior official in India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences. Rajeevan has been tracking the monsoons for many years, and noted that “The number of rainy days is decreasing even though the total amount of seasonal rainfall has remained the same for the last century or so.”
Landslides and floods are increasing, he said, as well as high temperatures and longer periods of drought that are adding to farmers’ woes.
The floods could also lead to deaths and economic losses, such as hundreds killed and over $1.42 billion in damages in Himachal Pradesh in 2023 due to heavy monsoon rains.
Rajeevan also said that hydropower resources that generate large amounts of electricity are also built with constant rainfall in mind, and extreme rainfall and flooding can lead to health problems such as increased cases of typhoid, cholera and malaria.
What does this mean for farmers?
The odd rain is a significant blow to her livelihood.
Maharashtra has seen thousands of farmers die by suicide which many say is the result of agriculture related debts. “Our region is famous for this,” said Jawandhia, the farmer.
Farmers in traditionally resource-rich regions, such as Punjab and Haryana in northern India, also say they are being adversely affected by less rainy days and too much rain when it does fall.
Tezveer Singh, a farmer in the city of Ambala in Haryana, remembers how “whole towns and fields were flooded, hundreds of cattle died due to drowning and three people lost their lives” there in last year’s floods.
Singh grows rice, potatoes and sugarcane on his 20-acre farm and said urgent policy changes are needed to stop flood damage.
He suggested that officials can “compensate for our losses where necessary, provide climate-resilient seeds, make farm produce supply chains more efficient and raise minimum prices for crops.”
“The climate has become tough and we have to adapt,” he said.
How can they adapt?
India’s weather agency makes state-level monsoon rainfall forecasts for the entire country, but climate experts say forecasts need to be more localized to be useful to farmers.
Vishwas Chitale, who heads the climate resilience team at the New Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water, said local weather forecasts and the times of year farmers plant can help change their crops accordingly.
In many parts of India, “maximum rainfall now occurs in October and not really June and July as it used to,” said Chitale, who also co-authored the 2024 report at observe the changing patterns of India’s monsoons. damaging crops waiting to be harvested.”
He added that it is important that better forecasts are available to everyone across the country who needs it.
Some farmers are already adapting to a warmer world. In the southern state of Kerala, an organic farming community has begun to change as they plant and harvest plants according to shifting rainfall patterns. The farming assembly has also drawn up an agricultural calendar which they share with other local farmers due to climate change.
“Preparedness helps farmers,” said Rajesh Krishnan, a paddy farmer who is part of the group that worked with local weather officials on the forecasts. Krishnan said his daily and weekly forecasts have at least 70% accuracy. “This helps to reduce losses and get a better crop. The forecasts also help us decide when to harvest our crops,” he said.
Climate experts like Rajeevan said the collective model needs to be replicated across the country to allow farmers to work with the changing monsoons.
After all, he said, “months are part of our culture. We cannot think of India without monsoons.”
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