by In less than 53 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.
A new poll shows that Harris is gaining ground among voters, after the candidates faced off in the presidential debate in Philadelphia, the first since President Joe Biden resigned from the Democratic ticket in July.
All polls show that Harris “won” the debate in the eyes of voters. So how will she fare against Trump in November?
Harris has a 2.8 point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, compiled by Five Thirty Eight. On average, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in national polls.
However, a new poll – taken in the two days after Tuesday’s debate – shows Harris leading Trump by +5 points among registered voters.
The national poll by Ipsos and Reuters of 1,405 registered voters has Harris at 47 percent of the vote, and Trump at 42 percent.
This puts Harris’ margin up by 1 point compared to the same poll in late August, when Harris had 45 percent of the vote to Trump’s 41 (a margin of 4 points).
The stronger guidance suggests the debate had a positive impact on public opinion of Harris, which could revive his late lead.
All the polls so far suggest that Harris won the debate in the eyes of voters, and Republican pollsters have long warned that this is going to Trump.
Perhaps significantly, half of independent voters believe Harris won the debate, according to a Reuters poll. This is a significant 180 from the Biden-Trump face-off in June, when 62 percent viewed Trump as the winner.
Meanwhile, a third (31 percent) of Republicans said neither candidate won the debate; compared to 6 percent of Democrats, and a quarter of voters overall (24 percent).
The debate certainly removed some confidence from the Republicans regarding their candidate. However, it remains to be seen whether this will have any impact on his voting choice.
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Where do they stand?
A CNN poll after the first Trump-Harris debate shows that Harris managed to turn the tide with some voters.
After the debate performance, more voters now believe that Harris better understands the issues of people like them (44 percent) compared to Trump (40 percent). Before the debate, the opposite was true.
Another poll earlier this week (pre-debate) from The New York Times/Siena College found former president Trump ahead of Harris by a narrow margin of +1 point, at 48 percent to 47 percent.
This same poll showed that nearly a third of voters (28 percent) felt they needed to learn more about Harris, compared to 9 percent who would say the same about Trump.
Although it is too early to tell, the candidates’ debate performances may have changed this.
Approval ratings declining
A series of polls from YouGov and The Economist, concluded just before the debate (up to September 10), it was found that there are no major politicians who won the hearts of the voters.
All presidential candidates are in the red, and voters have an unfavorable opinion to varying degrees.
The only candidate to come out narrower is Democratic Vice President Tim Walz, who has a neutral favorable rating.
Although Harris is at -3 overall, about 48 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him, higher than any other major politician.
Current President Biden suffers the worst of all, with 56 percent of voters viewing him unfavorably, which equates to a -13 net negative score.
state by state
A Morning Consult pre-debate poll shows wide variation in presidential support among 14 states, with Trump and Harris tied in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Each state tells a different story, however. A new set of polls from Morning Consult surveyed voters in 14 states up to September 8, finding Harris leading in Maryland, by a margin of +32 points. For Trump, he has the upper hand in Texas, at +8 points against Harris.
The two candidates are tied in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, although Trump only has a +2 point lead in Florida, smaller than most polls in recent months.
Trump also leads +2 points in Arizona, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential election since the 1950s – except 2020, when Biden won the state by 0.3 percent.
Independent
In particular, our analysis of the Morning Consult poll above shows that independent voters in Texas and Florida are leaning toward Harris, despite both states being Trump strongholds.
In a crucial shift, Harris also leads Trump by +7.7 percent among independent voters, according to a new Emerson College poll (up to September 4).
It will be crucial that Harris or Trump take the independent vote in this election. This group is also the most likely to vote for a third-party candidate, although with RFK Jr out of the race, this is down to just 4 percent of independents.
A nationwide Emerson College poll has 49.5 percent of independents saying they would vote for Harris, compared to 41.8 percent for Trump.
This is a significant jump from the same poll one month ago, which showed Harris just ahead of Trump (46 percent to 45 percent) among independent voters.
However, 5 percent of independent voters say they are still undecided, and the undecided group of voters is hard to pin down, with greater variation between polls and regions than other demographics. However, Harris can be credited with mobilizing the non-partisan voter base, whose support has been much stronger since the fall of Biden.
Demographics
Activote polls show that Trump’s main supporters remain male voters, the 65+, and white voters without a college education.
However, Harris and Trump are tied in the 50-64 age group in this poll, which has previously leaned toward Trump.
Harris polls better with young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom Harris leads by +52 points.
Meanwhile, Trump has a +6 point lead with Latino voters.
While Trump is bringing home rural voters, at 63 percent, Harris leads among urban (58 percent) and suburban (56 percent) voters.
Suburban voters chose Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016, and in 2020, Biden turned the tables on the Democrats.
