Bias, conspiracy theory or nonsense? Behind the ‘punishment for Rangers’ debate

After James Tavernier slammed Rangers’ ninth penalty in 10 home games on Saturday, the Scottish football conspiracy theory becomes an almost serious debate.

Rival fans have argued in recent years that Glasgow’s blue half gets the better refereeing decisions, especially from the spot. No tinfoil hat is needed, however, to raise an eyebrow at the striking statistic that Rangers’ recent run of top-flight goals this season contrasts with a stretch of 71 Scottish Premiership games without conceding a single one.

It is remarkable that this extends throughout the entire history of Var in the Scottish Privates. Since the technology was introduced on October 21 last year, Rangers have been awarded 19 penalties in domestic league and cup games without being penalized from 12 yards. In their last 19 European games, by contrast, Rangers have conceded four penalties.

‘Another Var decision going Rangers’ way in the 90th minute’

Tavernier’s last two attempts from 12 yards were absolutely terrible for the other teams. On Saturday Aaron Donnelly was penalized by referee Kevin Clancy, following Var’s review, for pulling down Abdallah Sima from a corner. “I couldn’t really see what happened,” said Dundee loanee Amadou Bakayoko. “I didn’t really get a good look at it. But they always manage to get penalties, don’t they? It’s one of those things that happens there.”

Dundee manager Tony Docherty was even more scathing: “I’m very disappointed with the decision to award the penalty and Var’s involvement in it.” He added: “The image put in front of Kevin Clancy is in favor of the penalty but the reality is there’s a commotion in the box, Sima has grabbed Aaron Donnelly’s shirt and Kevin Clancy thinks it was fine. It is difficult because we are re-refereeing games. Kevin Clancy’s site is good and not a glaring error. My problem with him is the image he will be shown.”

But the feeling of doubt was more febrile three home games ago when Rangers won their eighth penalty in seven games to salvage a last-gasp point against Aberdeen. Opposition manager Barry Robson was glowing. “For me it doesn’t look good, another Var decision going Rangers’ way in the 90th minute again,” he said.

The story continues

Var showed a clear shirt pull from Stefan Gartenmann on Connor Goldson and opinions were divided as to whether the Rangers man was diving there.

But Robson’s response – in which he said there were “too many wrong decisions in Scotland” – was prompted by some established figures in the game to suggest there is cause for concern.

“It would hardly be a stretch to suggest bias,” BBC Scotland presenter Richard Gordon wrote in a Press and Journal column questioning Rangers’ long spell without conceding a penalty.

“I’m not saying it’s deliberately biased, that the referees are deliberately ignoring incidents, but for whatever reason, it’s clearly there.”

Gordon, a lifelong Aberdeen fan who contributes to the club’s fixture list, said: “How else, unless those Rangers defenders are somehow more disciplined than all their colleagues, how else can that amazing statistic be explained ?”

However, others argue that there are other explanations. John Brown, the former Rangers defender, suggested that Robson was using the penalty to put pressure on who will be in charge of their Viaplay Cup final when the two clubs meet again next weekend.

Meanwhile, former Old Firm derby referee Steve Conroy was also scathing in his assessment of the comment, adding that the ongoing conspiracy theories have an insidious effect on confidence. “I know Celtic-Rangers can be inflammatory, but there is also a very bad feeling in the Aberdeen-Rangers game – the last thing he needs is for a manager to come out and try to blame the a referee for making a mistake for his own player,” Conroy told Telegraph Sport. “That adds fuel to the flames. It is irresponsible.”

Robson and Aberdeen were not the first club to be suspicious, however, with “Rangers’ penalty” becoming an increasingly popular meme shared between rival fans.

Days earlier, at Celtic’s AGM, Hoops chairman Peter Lawwell aimed a jibe, saying that “John Greig handled the ball last time [Rangers] surrendered”.

At the same meeting, club chief executive Michael Nicholson made a similar dig when asked why Brendan Rodgers’ side didn’t get a penalty against St Mirren at the start of last month when Mikael Mandron brought down Kyogo Furuhashi in the box. “Rangers penalty,” was Nicholson’s reply.

Where did the conspiracy theory begin?

Referee Steven Gerrard’s memorable rant at the start of the 2018-19 season has been pointed out by conspiracy theorists as Scottish officials are now under pressure to start handing out favorable decisions to Rangers.

After Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos sent off referee Clancy, Gerrard was able to take the decision – having also been impressive when Aberdeen defender Dominic Ball failed to be dismissed for a foul in the penalty box own.

“It’s not just today, it’s been happening for a while,” said Gerrard, just three months after his appointment as manager. “It’s been happening for quite some time. I believe it has been happening for seasons. That’s my opinion, just my opinion.

“It seems the world is against us. I watched footage. I don’t think we’ll ever get anything going. Everything seems to always be about Rangers, so someone should give me answers on that.

From that point on, no other team in the Scottish Premiership has been awarded more pennies.

Is it just Rangers who get a lot of penalties?

Apart from the boyhood Greig era in the 1960s-70s, it was actually January 2022 when a Rangers goalkeeper was last tested from 12 yards. Conroy, who became a Celtic fan following his retirement in 2013, and data analysts both point to the club’s record as the best team in Scotland to explain the long run.

“Lies, damned lies, and statistics,” Conroy said, quoting Mark Twain’s popular American quote. “There is no way to prove that this is anything other than a statistical blip. Celtic and Rangers, on the whole, kill every other team in Scotland so they will have more penalties than anyone else and concede less.”

Last season Celtic conceded just eight league penalties in the entire season while Rangers conceded 10, just behind Hearts on 11. StatsBomb’s Jaymes Monte published his own analysis of X after Aberdeen’s penalty, which compared penalties given for removal in the box.

“Supervisors get a little more pins than average (compared to touches in the box) but not by much,” he said. “Aberdeen above average too.” His figures show that Celtic and Hibernian are among the teams, according to his model, who could feel “dissatisfied” when they fall below the average.

‘People doubt that I support Celtic because I gave a penalty against them’

Conroy and Roddy Forsyth, a BBC broadcaster and the Telegraph’s Scottish football correspondent for 30 years, say the close-knit nature of football in Scotland makes conspiracies like this so quick to take root.

“Be warned that Old Firm fan sites are not rabbit holes – they are fens and if you start going down them you can be there forever,” said Forsyth. “Since the introduction of Var, there are now three more people in the studio to complement the four field officers. That would add to the coaching load of a Rangers fan who would be in charge of every SPFL fixture if the rumor is true!”

Conroy added: “There are some people who will never be convinced that there is no conspiracy and collusion to stick to whatever side they are on. He will never be put to sleep. Even though I’m a Celtic supporter, people doubt I’m telling the truth because I once wanted to disallow a Celtic goal against Rangers. That is always taken over and over again. I’m not a cheater and I don’t know anyone who cheated.”

Claims of bias are nothing new. In 2019, referee John Beaton contacted the police after being targeted with threatening messages online. Chris Sutton was also among critics when unconfirmed pictures emerged of Beaton allegedly drinking in a Rangers pub.

However, for Conroy, the prospect of Rangers or Celtic-backed referees stopping officiating in Old Firm derbies is no solution. “I have no problem with Celtic supporters or Rangers fans doing a Celtic Rangers game,” said the 56-year-old doctor. “We’re not fighters and we’re a tiny country… you’d lose half the population of referees.”