by These are fateful days for Aston Villa. Everyone suspected they were underperforming under former coach Steve Gerrard, but no one fully expected the promotion that took place under Unai Emery. Not only are they third in the table, just two points from the top, the fact is that they have won their best two games in the last two games.
The assumption is that at some point they will clash, and they are always talked about in a title race in tones that acknowledge that, but whether that happens or not, the performance was beating Manchester City last Wednesday was one of the most impressive the Premier League has ever known. It might have ended 1-0, but Villa hit City – xG models host’s 2.33 increase to City’s 0.86. This wasn’t about being smart and picking off their opponents on the break, or living under constant pressure: for 15 minutes straight after half-time (during which City didn’t have a shot), Villa went overboard. with them. No one has ever been in charge of City for so long in the Premier League.
So, there was a sense of a paradigm shift. It has always been said that teams have to be near perfect to beat City, and expect Pep Guardiola’s side to have an off day but Villa won despite being quite wasted in front of goal and despite having a fine game Ederson. The obvious caveat is that City were missing a number of key players, having started the game with John Stones and Manuel Akanji as the two deep-lying midfielders, but it was an extraordinary performance nonetheless. Sympathy should not be overcome for anyone if a state-run club has not bought a big enough squad, especially when Kalvin Phillips, Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovačić, who are worth $125m of midfielders, sat on the bench.
There comes a point in the life of every great team when their opponents no longer fear them. City had drawn three in a row before the defeat against Villa and it feels that this run may have reduced some of that aura from Guardiola’s side. That doesn’t mean they won’t go on to win a sixth league title in seven years or that they’re in some kind of final decline. But it does mean, for a while at least, that there could be fewer games where opponents accept, even if only subconsciously, a two- or three-goal lead before kick-off.
City have a fairly smooth schedule coming up – Newcastle are the only team in the semi-finals they currently face before the Manchester drabs at the start of March – but those games may be a bit more competitive than they should have been. . That is especially true if Erling Haaland is out for a long time with injury, although Guardiola said a “stress bone reaction” in the Norwegian’s leg did not constitute a fracture. City were far from their best to beat Luton 2-1 on Sunday, but perhaps the most impressive thing was the comeback they showed after falling behind.
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Although Villa beat Arsenal by the same scoreline 1-0, the game was very different. After taking an early lead, Villa were under pressure for long periods, but Arsenal found they might have had a penalty with former full-back Emi Martínez in fine form when Douglas Luiz kicked the underside of Gabriel’s boot Jesus and both going for the same bouncing ball, and an equalizer was ruled out (correctly under the law as it currently stands) after the ball brushed the arm of Kai Havertz. But, not the first time away from home, they looked a little toothless, ruthless lack.
Arsenal lost their lead in the Premier League but it may have been a consolation that even though their trips to Villa and Luton this week had the same result as City’s – a 1-1 win – they looked. more fluent than the champions in both games.
As for Villa, amid the euphoria, there may be some concern about how tired they looked towards the end of the Arsenal game, and if they are to sustain a title challenge, their form needs to improve shape. They have dropped 13 points this season, although that is a feature of the best teams: Arsenal have dropped eight on the road, while Liverpool, who were far from impressive when they beat Crystal Palace on Saturday, like City, having dropped 11.
That’s all good news for the competitiveness of the Premier League. Fallibility, the understanding that nothing is guaranteed, that must fight for every point, is what sustains a league. City are three points worse off than after 16 games last season, but are three points closer to the leaders. Last season at this stage the top five were separated by 13 points; this season it is seven. An outright finish is unlikely, but it would also be rare for three sides to still be fighting for the title at the start of May.
Could Villa be one of them? The suspicion is that their relatively thin squad will count against them, or that someone will work their trap upside down, but the performance against City means that nobody can dismiss them.
This is an excerpt from Jonathan Wilson’s Soccer, the Guardian US’s weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Do you have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition
