by You got lucky. He came in at 18-1*. I have a feeling, this year is for me and you. Well, maybe. On the other hand, we could wait until April, the spring surge Guardiola, some post-op Kevin De Bruyne, and then take another look.
So far, Arsenal’s trip to Anfield on Saturday afternoon is a rare opportunity for Jürgen Klopp and Mikel Arteta. Cinematically, and with no regard for Aston Villa’s presence in the mix, the penultimate game of the pre-festive build-up is really a prelude to the main role of the Premier League ceremony on Christmas Day. .
This shouldn’t mean much in the wider scheme of things. Christmas is not a sporting event. Christmas is about shopping, family regrets and arguments about meat. Christmas has no bearing on things like team building, squad depth, executive management and all the other factors that determine who wins.
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On the other hand: Top of the League On Christmas Day! In a sport still tied to its own private voodoo of signs and rituals and manta, Top of the Table at Christmas feels good, an authentic program of things like morale and inner energy. Give us your snowy graphics, your ideas in jerseys, the strange energy of the Match of the Day Christmas Tree, an understanding above all of the plot points and markers of the year.
Do a little digging and Christmas power ratings are an accurate indicator of future performance. Ten of the last 14 Premier League titles have been won by the team that topped the table on Christmas Day. Manchester City have won the other four. There are basically two options here. Top of the table at Christmas. Or be Manchester City. The only teams that beat City in that period – Chelsea, Manchester United, Leicester and Liverpool – are the hare in mid-winter and spring.
With this in mind, Saturday evening seems less like a tick-box ritual, more like a step towards front-runner status. With City caught up elsewhere, a win would leave Arsenal eight points and Liverpool seven clear of Pep Guardiola’s league champions.
Also there is a question of development here, matching yourself with the closest identical person. In a weekend where Premier League broadcasters seemed to take offense to Liverpool and Manchester United’s refusal to show a proper jazz scene, these are two teams that make for a striking contrast.
Arteta’s methods are often compared to those of his former boss at the Etihad. But there are also powerful similarities to the way Klopp built his teams at Liverpool. Both looked to create a base level of energy in a combination of pressure and attack, and from there to apply a degree of control, defensive solidity and the ability to hold possession which are indispensible qualities to sustain a title challenge.
Team building in this sense is a bit like making French onion soup. The first step, the one where Liverpool is still, is adding heat, energy, flavors, mixing and filtering, making wrong turns, adjusting the settings.
After that you do what Arsenal have done this season. You settle and tighten and shrink, allowing this substance to become thicker and more concentrated, more comfortable itself.
Four years into Mikel’s age, Arsenal are at least a season further down the line than Klopp’s latest iteration. But for both, finding a balance of control and intensity will lead to success.
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There are comparisons to be made between the way Arteta coped with last season’s rivals, and the way Klopp transitioned from the joyous gung-ho style of Mohamed Salah’s first season to the more mature title machine he follow.
This current team is definitely in a more volatile phase. Liverpool are second in Europe’s top five leagues for shots per game, with a total of 123 shots off target, more than any other team in the Premier League. The numbers are all pretty wild. The seventh most offside team in Europe. Most own goals. Most red cards Premier League. Constant personnel changes (eight forward combinations in past 10 games). This is the abandonment phase, the energy phase, the sizzling onion phase, the part that thrills with its possibilities, and also requires constant patience.
In contrast, Arsenal are in the decline phase. This season has been under control: joint last in Europe (with City) for shots against, 89th out of 96 for picking cards (Arteta is the most booked, tied with the famous grouse Kai Havertz).
After the Brighton game Roberto De Zerbi spoke of his team being swept off their feet by Arsenal’s physical intensity and positional control, recalling the way Klopp’s most powerful Liverpool teams wore down their opponents a few seasons ago.
Arsenal are now settled in shape as well, suggesting that they will approach the point where personnel changes and tactical formation, adapted to opponents, rather than a case of still searching for chemistry.
Arteta has basically been playing the same team since Lens won 6-0, with a midfield of Havertz/Rice/Ødegaard plus Saka/Jesus/Martinelli in attack. This thing is still simmering, but it’s thicker, stickier, closer to done.
For all that, Liverpool remain the masters of discipline at home, with seven wins and a draw in eight games this season and just five goals conceded, three of which came in the wild comeback against Fulham. Arsenal were also 4-3, but there were seven or two doubles. This is its controlled version. Will it be enough?
Whatever happens on Saturday, of course it will be overshadowed by option two: the City Highs, a team that can make the kind of run that changes the weather and takes the chase out of everyone else’s hands.
*Actual odds of Arsenal or Liverpool winning the title: 5-2 and 11-4. Don’t gamble. Watch the game instead. The fun never really begins.
