by Both Arsenal and Liverpool seem to have felt a lot, at key moments over the last few seasons. Even Mikel Arteta admitted his dressing room was “frustrated and sad” after the 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa, which was quite different to how he usually reacts to such setbacks. Part of the Spaniard’s approach is to always look ahead, to prevent any doubt from entering his team. It led to an obvious question at a fairly short press conference, whether Arsenal’s season is now in danger of ending.
“If one result is going to do that, then we are not strong enough,” Arteta replied. “That’s very simple.”
It’s on one level, but the story is actually much more complicated than that.
For that reason, it might even be absurd to talk in such terms given the way the table looks. Liverpool and Arsenal are still just a point behind Manchester City. The actual gap is the same as before this weekend, when almost everyone was talking about a possible three-way title race.
The problem, however, is precisely that this “one result” means much more than just one result – in Liverpool’s case, a 1-0 home win against Crystal Palace. It has been about the last six years and what everyone knows can happen now.
Much of the excitement surrounding this title race was fueled by the way Arsenal and Liverpool seemed like these emotional waves, with City suddenly vulnerable. Arteta’s side looked like they had the experience of last season, and they haven’t lost a league game this calendar year. Liverpool were emotionally buoyed by Jurgen Klopp’s return, and fueled by this unstoppable ability to come back; as if they could always overcome anything. At least one man remained ahead of City at all times, who were conceding far more goals than they usually do. It was as if the champions were giving everyone a chance, which was shown in the way that one of Liverpool or Arsenal continued to stay ahead.
Not more.
City have now scored 13 goals in three games, and were already looking awful ahead of this weekend’s games. It was at this point last season that they went from beating the opposition to destroying them.
That is why it is as if these double victories came at just the wrong time. They have a double effect, especially psychologically. That’s why it’s about more than just one result.
It’s hard not to feel that both contenders need the belief that they can beat Cahir to stay stronger for longer; to foster a different momentum. That’s after all what it takes against this type of machine. That pushed Liverpool to 99 points in 2019-20.
Now, both Liverpool and Arsenal have the same sense of deflation. It’s not just that they lost, it’s that those goals allowed City to get ahead of them.
That is a huge psychological change.
“We knew this moment could come,” said Arteta, rather visibly. Both Liverpool and Arsenal will see the new order of the table and will no doubt reflect on what has happened in the last few seasons. The city does not tend to drop points from now on.
In the three really close races, Pep Guardiola’s side dropped just two points when the title was up after the 32nd game. That’s one draw out of 16. And the only reason it’s not 18 is because they won the series by 37 games last year.
Neither Arsenal nor Liverpool have that record to fall back on. They don’t know they can do that. They hope they can, of course, but that’s why the psychology of it all is so important. There’s a reason mind games were part of the language of title races.
That confidence has now been shattered at a critical point.
These two victories have also done something else, which may be symbolic and influential. Neither Arsenal nor Liverpool can get more than 90 points. The biggest thing is that they can go to 89. That’s a little bit that may not be relevant but speaks to the kind of standards they’re up against.
It is that basic knowledge that the City has the ability to always go further. That is the story of the modern era after that.
This state project is almost industrialized to win. Guardiola has assembled a squad that knows exactly what he wants from them. The ruling is almost complete, especially at this point in the season. Since joining Barcelona in 2008, Guardiola has urged his team to give his side the physical condition they need to reach their peak in April. We saw that last season. We may be seeing it now.
It shows the double effect of this game. When contenders enter the big games of the title race, it’s not just the pressure to win to keep up. The pressure is known to City is unlikely to relent.
That can panic teams, and we’ve certainly seen plenty of that from Arsenal and – especially – Liverpool over the last few hundred minutes or so of football.
This is not to exonerate their own failures, of course. Liverpool shouldn’t be finishing like that, or being so lazy at the back. Arsenal were equally extraordinary in the second half against Aston Villa.
They can only look to themselves for so much of that.
The potential consequences, however, reflect the wider context of the City’s potential.
That is why these games feel so seismic, because there are now unlikely types. This is not like the 1990s, when even Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United could lose at home to Derby County and still win the title. The game has changed.
You can’t pay for home slips, especially against mid-table sides, because City won’t offer that.
That is not to say that this is done, of course. It’s just how hard it is.
Enormous achievements remain to be achieved. Psychological shifts are still possible.
The fixture list, which is more concerning for City, may even play a part in it.
By the time City play their next Premier League game, Arsenal and Liverpool will have played each other twice.
That could change the table again. That could change the mood again. Both may be back in the lead, albeit with more games played.
Meanwhile Arteta spoke of how Arsenal have a “beautiful opportunity” as the club look to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in 14 years.
The second step of Bayern Munich, he said “Couldn’t come in a better moment”.
Maybe that’s true.
What is not in doubt, however, is that neither Liverpool nor Arsenal can afford further slip-ups. One more bad result could really do it.
