by Read in Spain.
Southeast Michigan seemed like the perfect “climate haven.”
“My family has owned my house since the 60s. … Even when my father was a child and lived there, there were no floods, no floods, no floods. To [2021],” one southeast Michigan resident told us. That June, a storm dumped more than 6 inches of rain on the region, overloading stormwater systems and flooding homes.
That feeling of living through unprecedented disasters comes with more Americans each year, which we found in our research on risk and resilience in the past, present and future.
An analysis of federal disaster declarations for weather-related events puts more data behind the concerns – the average number of disaster declarations has increased since 2000 to nearly double the previous 20-year period.
As people question how sustainable the world will be in a warming future, a story of climate migration and “climate sanctuaries” has emerged.
These “climate sanctuaries” are areas that researchers, public officials and city planners call natural refuges from extreme climate conditions. Some climate havens are welcoming people fleeing the effects of climate change elsewhere. Many have affordable housing and legacy infrastructure from their larger populations before the mid-20th century, when people began to leave as industries disappeared.
But they are not immune from disaster – or necessarily ready for the changing climate.
Six climatic refuges
Some of the “sanctuaries” most cited in research by national organizations and in the news media are older cities in the Great Lakes region, the Upper Midwest and the Northeast. They include Ann Arbor, Michigan; Duluth, Minnesota; Minneapolis; Buffalo, New York; Burlington, Vermont; and Madison, Wisconsin.
But each of these cities is likely to have to deal with some of the biggest temperature rises in the country in the coming years. Warmer air also has a higher ability to hold water vapor, which causes more frequent, more intense and longer storms.
The impact of climate change is already felt in these cities. In 2023 alone, “sanctuary” regions in Wisconsin, Vermont and Michigan suffered significant damage from powerful storms and floods.
The previous winter was also disastrous: lake-effect snow fueled by moisture from the still open water of Lake Erie dumped more than 4 feet of snow on Buffalo, leaving nearly 50 people dead and thousands of families homeless power and heat. Duluth reached near-record snowfall and faced significant flooding as extremely high temperatures caused snowmelt in April.
Heavy rains and extreme winter storms can cause widespread damage to the energy grid and significant flooding, and increase the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks. These effects are particularly significant in Great Lakes heritage cities with aging energy and water infrastructure.
Older infrastructure was not built for this
Older cities tend to have older infrastructure that is unlikely to have been built to withstand extreme weather events. They are now scrambling to complete their systems.
Many cities are investing in infrastructure upgrades, but these upgrades tend to be piecemeal, not permanent solutions and often lack long-term funding. They are also typically not wide enough to protect entire cities from the effects of climate change and can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.
Electricity grids are extremely vulnerable to the amplified effects of thunderstorms and winter storms on power lines. Vermont and Michigan are ranked 45th and 46th among states, respectively, for electricity reliability, which includes the frequency of outages and the time it takes utilities to restore power.
Storm water systems in the Great Lakes region also regularly fail to keep up with the heavy rain and rapid snowmelt caused by climate change. Stormwater systems are routinely designed according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation analysis called Atlas 14, which does not take climate change into account. A new version will not be available until 2026 at the earliest.
At the confluence of these infrastructure challenges are more frequent and extensive urban flooding in and around sanctuary cities. An analysis by the First Street Foundation, which incorporates future climate projections into precipitation modeling, shows that five of these six sanctuary cities are at moderate or high risk of flooding.
Disaster declaration data shows that the counties containing these six cities have averaged six declarations of severe storms and flooding since 2000, about one every 3.9 years, and these are increasing.
More intense precipitation can further stress stormwater infrastructure, leading to basement flooding, contamination of drinking water sources in cities with legacy sewer systems, and hazardous flooding of roads and highways. Transportation systems are also struggling with warmer temperatures and pavement not designed for extreme heat.
As these trends increase, cities everywhere will also need to address systemic inequalities in vulnerability that often fall along race, wealth and mobility. The effects on urban heat islands, energy insecurity and increased flood risk are just some of the issues that climate change exacerbates and often hit poor residents harder.
What can cities do to prepare?
So what’s a sanctuary to do in the face of brutal climate change and population influx?
Decision makers can hope for the best, but must plan for the worst. That means working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change, but also assessing the physical infrastructure and social safety nets of the community for vulnerabilities that become more likely in a warming climate.
Collaboration across sectors is also vital. For example, a community may rely on the same water resources for energy, drinking water and recreation. Climate change can affect all three. Working across sectors and including community input into climate change planning can help to identify concerns early.
There are some innovative ways cities can finance infrastructure projects, such as public-private partnerships and green banks that help support sustainability projects. DC Green Bank in Washington, DC, for example, works with private companies to mobilize funding for natural stormwater management and energy efficiency projects.
Cities will have to remain vigilant about reducing emissions that contribute to climate change, while at the same time preparing for the climate risks that are approaching even the world’s “climate havens”.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a non-profit, independent news organization that brings you reliable facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. Written by: Julie Arbit, University of Michigan; Brad Bunn, University of Michiganand the Earl of Lewis, University of Michigan
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Earl Lewis is affiliated with the 2U Board of Directors; ETS Board of Trustees; American Funds/Capital Group Board of Directors; Board of Trustees of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Brad Bottoms and Julie Arbit do not work for, consult with, own shares in, or receive funding from, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations with, any company or organization that would benefit from this article. after their academic appointment.
